MillvilleWx

Hopefully they're not just practicing

If one ever occurs. I'll be reporting to you guys by candle light....

HRDPS is straight loltastic

Here's a good look at what I'm referencing. Below is the 700mb Frontogenesis forecast at 10z Wedesday (Sounding avg for Central MD below that). When you have prime mid-level forcing, this generates a better looking precip field, as well as better Omega within the best snow growth region. This will help crystal structures and give the best chance for accumulating snow. A lack of forcing will play a detriment to snow accumulation since the lower boundary layer will be marginal, especially east of the fall line. Need this depiction to hold for another few runs before I would get excited. This is a tight rope walker, but the chance is there for a nice little event.

1-2” with lolli’s to 4” N/W of the fall line are looking increasingly likely. Need the mesos to hold serve into 12z tomorrow to really cement the idea. It’s a still a tight rope setup with where the thermal gradient is aligned and best H7 frontogenesis. Right now, it looks like a nice start of the season event shaping up. At this rate, @Bob Chill might only need to steal 1/3 of PSU’s snow

Your image is most likely the correct image and the other was issued before, but they did a correction with the image. There should be a range. .

Yeah. A lot of those were self inflicted wounds. The Beasley PI was obviously Oscar worthy acting on his part and the refs bought it. That hurts. But we played really well on defense for 48 minutes worth of that game. Hopefully we come out firing on all cylinders vs the Jets. Short week incoming.

This makes me feel better after how we looked on offense today. I'm still scratching my head at some of those play calls.

Tis quite solid.

The stark differences at H5 on the Euro and GFS just show how volatile this pattern is. So many shortwaves to key on, both in the southern and northern stream. It's going to be a pattern where answers will not be made until inside 4 days, and even then there could be some sharp shifts up to lead time. GFS is more amped in the northern stream for Tuesday/Wednesday with a progressive southern wave traversing the southern plains into the Mississippi Valley. A trailing shortwave over the Inter-mountain west dives south and phases on the backside of the southern disturbance and gains a neutral tilt over the Tenn Valley. Regional difluence on the leading edge of the trough provides a good signature for enhanced lift over the southern Mid-Atlantic, bringing a solid moisture field into a cold antecedent airmass with 1040+ surface high over northern New England. Those are the GFS details parsing with some winter precip in the mix. Now for the Euro, it's a short and sweet reason of why it fails. Sheared northern stream energy coupled with southern wave closing off and drifting into the Bay of Campeche. No phasing streams, progressive flow, and lead southern shortwave early in the week is the main feature the Euro keys on for precip development next weekend. It's a completely different look and both solutions could have merit in the setup. Wednesday is tight. The models did bring in the front quicker yesterday compared to previous days, but now we're seeing the depth of the cold push, in latitude, being pushed back, which might hinder the prospects for snowfall, unless we get an energetic trailing piece along the boundary. Models have diverged away from that for the time being, so you're seeing a flat look with cold chasing precip. That's not historically how the area scores, but it's not impossible. Need to see models comeback to a more aggressive cold push imo. That way we can see a sharpening baroclinic ribbon and better chance for frozen to the NW side of the boundary.

Quick look at the EPS for late Tuesday into Wednesday, there's been a noticeable shift in the timing of the front with quicker progression as thicknesses fall and surface temps have seen a downward trend for the overnight time frame. Below is the model difference from the previous run. Notice the mean is around 2-4F cooler than the last run (00z). Much has to do with the progression of the front, which is important if the area wants to see some anafrontal action. Still a ways away, but that's a nice trend in mean guidance.

I was seeing that too. Something tells me one or two are going to break right in the upcoming pattern. Definitely love the cold air filtering on this side of the pole in the extended. I might miss my snow chance being home, but would love for y'all to score one way or another. At this rate, ice storm potential keeps going up in these parts the longer this pattern holds. Lots of PAC energy to work with. All about timing for here too. Let's Roll

Despite the Euro Deterministic eroding the cold air quickly at the day 9-10 time frame with the southern system coming out, there ECM does a good job signaling how persistent and deep the CAD wedge is. This is important because the current setup is a strong isentropic upglide signature with southerly flow aloft with north/northeast flow positioned at the surface due to the surface ridge over the northeast. At range, globals will will struggle with handling any kind of pronounced CAD, but means on the ensembles will give a better depiction. Below is a gif from the ECM showing 2m T anomalies (deg C). Notice how strong the wedge sig on this one. With H85 winds directed out of the south, there would be a moderation above the deck, so it's a classic look of snow to mix to zr to potential rain pending latitude. We know how our climo works. I agree with WxUSAF, that signature would not scour the cold that fast. That's got winter wx written all over it. Only 8-9 days away!

I have some skin in the game for the Dec 13-16th time frame. I'll be home to see family then. Let's bring one home y'all

I just read this and I am busting a gut for some reason Btw, Happy Belated CAPE!

I wasn’t saying it was... I was saying the look verbatim is how you get ice storms down here. It was a crazy run. And as a meteorologist, you never throw away an ensemble run and run with one model. That’s dangerous. Closer in, then we can start giving weight. .

January 1998. The Great North American Ice Storm. North Country of NY State up into Quebec were demoralized from 2-6" of freezing rain accretion. Trees in northern NY state are still bent over in spots to this day and will forever be that way from the weight of the ice. At the height of the storm, freezing rain fell into air as cold as 14 degrees.

So, looking at the GEFS, I pray that the signal it is showing doesn't actually come true. Good lord. It's got the look though for a legit ice storm out this way. PV rotating down north of the Lakes with strong surface ridge nosing down the lee of the Apps with the height rises. Add a piece off the Pac to cut underneath. That's an ice storm lovers dream. Dang man The more I look at it, the more impressed I am. Heck, @Eskimo Joe would approve of this run. Wow. And that look at H5 is CLASSIC for a southern plains Ice storm.

I can actually see my lights go out on that run. I can also hear the tree in Midland snapping. #BigYikes .

You can have all the flakes you want if you switched your shampoo or moved to Hagerstown. .

I like where the Ravens sit, but the Chiefs and Pats still creep me out come playoff time. We haven’t beaten the Chiefs yet and I’ll never discount Belicheck .

I also see this and one of the reasons I bumped my snow for BWI higher than anyone else. Just looking at recency bias would lend credence to a more active coastal track with baroclinic proxy somewhat closer to the coast. Have had a lot of lows actually positioned very well so far in fall with QPF fields in good placement. Still missing the all important cold air to sustain any winter precip, but it was still out of climo. Roll that same kind of H5 height pattern into latter December through early March, and you have to like chances to get a good storm or two. We shall see. Unlikely I'll see any snow this year unless I chase it. Looks like ice would be our biggest threat down here, but you never know. A good snow here is actually not a good precursor for back home, so I'll take my ice or cold rain lol

Looks like weather might play a huge role in the game for Sunday. Ravens been practicing with wet footballs all week in prep. Last time SF played in the rain, it was against WSH earlier this year. A low scoring affair with SF coming out on top. That defense is pretty solid. If the Ravens can keep up what they've been doing, they should be fine. It'll be a good one.

I can agree with this. It certainly seems like that's the narrative lately. Hopefully for y'all sake it continues. I'm not super bullish on this winter by any means, but I do see a fair amount of chances incoming for the season. Actually bumped my snow fall forecast a bit as a result in the contest. And my wife and I are doing okay out in Texas. We do miss home. Hope to get back to or at least closer to the ole stomping grounds in time. Really taking advantage and learning the intricacies of forecasting in the NWS. It's pretty awesome. I love what I do, but I need my snow

Nice look Showme. Pretty consistent pattern evolving next few weeks with higher heights building over the western US heading into December. A prime split-flow pattern with ample disturbances traversing the sub-tropical jet. Still a bit hesitant from what I'm seeing on the ensembles in the extended, but I wouldn't worry too much about that now. In fact, both ECM/GEFS begin to take on a better look after mid-month. Source region for cold will be solid, so even a shutout will have some benefit for later in the extended (i.e beyond mid-December). I'd take that look anytime.