MillvilleWx

GFS is one step closer to Bob’s dream of a foot of ice [emoji2] .

Keep the southern wave train running with that shift in the high latitudes and you’re bound to see some frozen down the line. I am really really liking the setup for February if this shakes out close to what is being progged. Even down here for that matter. Any blocking in the NA is icing to lock in the freezer. We know what happens when cold is around and wave lengths shorten. Good stuff in LR ensemble land. .

Natural grass!

Rain is actually not a given during the game. There's been a trend of a big lull in the precip field for Saturday afternoon and most of the evening prior to the front. Could be spitting drizzle during the game, but actual light rain is looking less and less prominent. Would bode well for us. Fingers crossed it stays the course.

Best QB/RB combo in the league this past year

But will this be the case at 815PM on Saturday? Asking the important questions

God I miss home. It’s low key one of the best spots for snow in southern Baltimore Co. Glad to see the area cashed in [emoji2] .

That enhancement that models had over central MD is coming to fruition. As PSU has been mentioning, almost a bit of an IVT look to it. Areas north of I-70 and east of Rt 15 will probably see some decent rates 2-4 more hours. Someone is gonna get between 5-6” when all said and done. .

That certainly makes sense. That's likely the issue. I still like that radar a lot. Just have to be wary early on in these types of setups. Enjoy the snow up there!

Thanks Mappy! I'll forever follow what's happening back in my old stomping grounds. Hopefully I can get a job at Sterling and come back to the Motherland

Yeah. Something weird. Looked like it was doing a solid job for most areas. I still enjoy using that radar a lot. Have had it bookmarked for years. Enjoy the snow Bob. I'm living vicariously.

Yeah, I just mentioned that to Mappy. It's doing decent job south of I-70. Not sure what was happening north of there. Oh well. Radar or not, it's snowing up in your hood. Enjoy! And next time you're at the Casino, $20 on black for me. I'll Venmo

I actually noticed that as soon as I typed that response. Weird that is was off up there. It's doing a great job south of I-70 at least. It's shaking off the rust . Enjoy the snow!

That is honestly my favorite radar to follow during an event. It's extremely good at pinpointing the changeover line(s).

Still worthless in this setup! That's it. That's the update

Some great photos down by Roanoke via Spann Twitter. Looking forward to seeing similar obs later from y’all .

HREF mean snowfall for the region is between 2-4" for a majority of NoVa west of I-95 all the way to the north in Central MD. Probability threshold for >4" accumulation is fairly low for a majority of the area, but there is a focal centered north of I-70 from Northern Frederick to the east across Carroll and Baltimore counties. The 1hr snow mean is actually pretty impressive for a 4 hr span beginning at 20z through 0z for the central MD crew showing a general 0.5/hr accumulation. but pockets of up to 0.75"/hr. Remember that what is shown is a mean, and not necessarily a slam dunk. 1-1.5"hr for an hour or two is very much in the cards, so localized amounts exceeding 4" north of I-70 is possibility. We know the usual suspects A sharp gradient in snowfall totals is depicted as well toward the bay. Areas east of I-95 may struggle to reach 1 inch. A few in here have been pessimistic about their chances of receiving over an inch. It has merit, but that is just climo. Nothing much you can do. Final forecast is 1-3 " for inside the beltway(s), Alexandria, Arlington, and southwest of DC. 2-4" for areas north of the Potomac in MD, WV Panhandle, and northern neck of VA. 2-5" for areas north of I-70 stretching from Hagerstown to northern Harford County near Jarretsville. Best chance for the higher end is Parrs Ridge, MD line crew on a triangle of Emmitsburg/Mt Airy/Jarretsville.

Laytonsville is in a good spot for this storm. 2-4" is a pretty solid bet for the area. Gburg and northern MoCo will be 2-4" in general. Potential max of 3-5" up near Damascus/Mount Airy line along 27

That reminds me, how did your Fabio costume turn out this past Halloween?

The one thing with this storm is that when the precip moves into the area, it'll come in hot and heavy. First precip may start as rain for some (Mainly DC south and east), but as precip intensifies, we'll see sufficient wet bulbing with boundary layer temps falling quickly below freezing. Lift during the afternoon will be stout with H7 VV's very impressive for a short period across NoVa through Central MD between 18-00z. H7 wind field indicates a finger of 50-55 kts out of the southwest across north-central VA sliding east through MD and the Delmarva. This is some prolific moisture enhancement right near the DGZ in tandem with the strong lift focused overhead. This is why models, despite showing precip only 4-8 hrs max, showing 2-4" now across the region. There will be embedded banding structures within the main QPF shield, adding to the localized precip max we typically see with these types of setups. I don't see stickage to pavement being a problem almost anywhere (Maybe DC at the start). This should be a wintery scene over the area. Look forward to living vicariously

They have plenty of time to make adjustments. They are doing a decent job so far imo. 00z runs on guidance will be the biggest time frame for areas to the NE. SW portion of the CWA is a slam dunk WWA.

Agreed. You can kind of pick something out on the NAM that shows that signal. Looks like prime time is during the morning across VA and between Noon-5PM for areas to the northeast. Orientation of the precip field, as well as the orientation of the thicknesses over Central MD indicate an inverted trough type feature. Fairly progressive disturbance, so the window is still 4-7 hrs.

I would think that was first step for that area specifically because it falls inside 24 hrs for the start for those counties. Further to the northeast, they could in theory hold off a little longer, although they probably will pull the trigger on something. That's just my theory given recent history of Sterling and posting Winter Wx products.

The updated package will be out in 1-2 hrs. That's still from the morning package prior to newer guidance.

One of the things I like about these runs is the increasing low level flow out of the southeast leading into the system. This has helped really moisten the lower column, allowing minimal time for the boundary layer to have to moisten up with the onset of precip. We should see precip fall very quickly once the returns are overhead. Also, the H7 VV's on models are pretty significant across the area during the peak of the storm. There will be solid 6 hr period of solid lift across the Shenandoah and areas to the NE before we see precip tapering off. When the flow shifts to the NW, that'll be the time frame when you know the snow will be coming to an end in a few hours as dry air filters in behind the departing low. General 1-3" for areas impacted, but higher elevations in the BR and the valley's of VA could easily see 3-5". A nice little event incoming