MillvilleWx

This was just north of your point in the northern Tug. Lowville/Redfield are going to get smashed. https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-75.77064514160156&lat=43.800836406012195#.XlcTNqjYouU

Guess who issued his first ever Blizzard Warning in the NWS?

If anyone wants to see snow soon, you might be able to come visit my area or the central panhandle. Looks like something appetizing could be brewing for late-Tuesday into Wednesday. Pretty stoked. .

I think you'll get two of those. If he dips into the Chianti for dinner one Friday, you have a shot at all 3.

If you're playing JB bingo, that's still just the Free Space. Sorry man

That was a positive takeaway for the run, but issue becomes when the winds shift west/northwest, down-sloping takes over and it all dries up quick. If that S/S vort can tilt negative or pass further to the northwest, more precip can be thrown back for the inevitable cutoff.

The separation of energy on this run is still too far apart for the MA. By the time the N/S vort catches up with the S/S vort, the phasing energy is too far to the east. The snow we see breaking out over WV is from strong PVA on the base of the trough coupled with upslope flow over the higher terrain. Wind direction shifts to the NW across the Piedmont as N/S finally makes its run at the S/S, but that provides a down-slope component locally, drying out the precip shield on the western side. In order for the area to be in game with the storm, you need the S/S vort to lag by 6-12 hrs, or for the N/S to speed up and promote phasing while the S/S energy pivots through western NC. It's all just too late for it impact the MA, and even most of the EC for that matter. Not until the Maritimes do you see the anchor set up and start pulling back to the NW. LI, Cape Cod, and Down-east Maine the only true beneficiaries.

Knowing the luck this year, probably phase 5. Blocking will be rocking though in April .

Has anyone tried turning the weather off and back on again? .

I heard Boma was good. Will have to give that a go next time we’re there. Tony’s in MK was actually our favorite meal. Homemade Italian that tastes like something a Nona would make. Absolutely outstanding. Pizza was on point. Wife have the gnocchi. She gobbled the whole thing. Finished meal with gelato for me and cannoli’s for my wife. To die for. Great last meal for the trip. .

I actually don’t chase severe much. I chase winter storms. So if I had to chose a ride, probably the Bus ride back to the resort. [emoji1] .

The rides you mentioned are all great. The best ride in the whole resort is the new Pandora ride. Absolutely incredible. It’s a 4-D experience. We went on it twice thanks to Fast Pass +. If it wasn’t for that, the wait times are always over 2-3 hrs. Make sure to catch some shows as well PSU!! And for food; Chef Mickey (Disney Contemporary Resport), Tony’s (Magic Kingdom. Get the pizza!!), Les Chef de France (Epcot), and Friar’s Nook (Magic Kingdom. Excellent park food). .

It's a blast. Let me know if you want any tips or list of rides/places to eat. We had a great experience and rode so many great rides.

Wife and I had an amazing experience at Disney over the past week. It was seriously one of the best vacations ever. Sucks to return and see the pattern is still stuck in a rut. Here’s a picture of me having a little too much fun at my wife’s expense to brighten your day [emoji1] .

Wish I could look at thermals, but just given the algorithm in place and the surface temps, looks like a quick burst of snow in the beginning, then a nasty ice storm west of the Fall line. East of the fall line is a minor event with some snowfall, short period of ice, then ice cold rain. This is a verbatim take, and it's the ICON. I'll wait for the better models and withstand judgement.

I remember an event back in 2015 after we had a long stretch of sub freezing days at Millersville, we had a touch of snow to sleet and then ZR. We actually had 0.1” accretion while temps hovered between 32-34F. It was incredible to see ice build up on the ground above freezing. There’s a lot to ZR and the physical process of ice. It’s actually quite fascinating. .

It’s certainly not as efficient, but it can still be ugly when the antecedent conditions leading in are pretty cold. A lot of the surfaces will remain solidly below freezing despite air temp being at freezing. Urban areas will have a harder time with accretion, but out to the north and west, it’s probably closer to 30 and really ugly. .

100% mashed potatoes. Almost back breaking snow trying to shovel the next morning. I had ~20" NW of 95. I was in the heart of that band for hours. We hit 4"/hr between 115-215AM that night. Thundersnow woke up my dad, who then woke me up, which lead to us staying up all night watching and taking measurements. Great father and son moment. What a great memory. Edit: Sorry for going a bit off topic. Those analogs are very much conducive for wintry weather. Ridge over the top with mean trough in the east, EPO ridge in place, and low anomalies where the Aleutian low is parked. There's also a hint of low anomalies off the Pac/Baja coast. Likely some result of southern stream influence judging by the buckling heights out there.

Man, there's a few good storms in there. One of my all time favorite, extremely underrated storms was 2/9/2006. Got absolutely buried by a crazy deformation axis that extended from NoVa to just north of NYC. The reason people actually remember that storm was due to thunder snow in the band, and the fact it warmed up so fast after the storm exited. I remember it was in the 40's before Noon just north of Baltimore. Crazy, but some of the greatest rates I've ever seen.

Lamar made some decent outside throws last night, but he had some rough ones mixed in. I'm still mad at Roberts dropping what would've been an easy TD with his speed. Bottom line is the whole offense didn't show up, coaching was terrible for the first time in a while, and it all culminated into a bad loss at literally the worst time. I have confidence we can work on some issues and play well next year. We absolutely need an edge pass rusher, one or two more WR's with outside threats that can catch, and more OL at G. More DB's doesn't hurt either. But pass rush and WR are a MUST.

Try out Pulaski, NY off the east side of Ontario. Should be mostly snow there, both from synoptic and lake effect on the backside of the low. You also have I-90 to your disposal to move north or south. Slide down to Oswego and hit up the Oswego Sub Shop for a great corned beef or pastrami sandwich.

There's just something so satisfying about a good dry aged steak. I'll have to give the Capital Grille a try for my wife and I's Bday this year (Both turn 30 in the summer). Nice little getaway to Dallas where they have a spot uptown. Dry aged Bone-In Ribeye sounds heavenly

I could easily see that as well. 850mb winds are pretty light prior to Sat morning on both models before ramping up in the afternoon. 925mb temps are very slow to erode however, showing the model is sort of seeing the wedge hanging around, but likely still too quick in the dispersion before the boundary layer finally warms. Just a 100 mile southeast jog on current progs and it's a formidable winter event for anyone west of the fall line. Curious to see ensembles on the Euro as well to see what kind of positive winter evolution(s) it's spitting out. Exactly. That's wedge into north GA kind of cold. You keep that look heading into the week and you're bound to see some icier solutions show up in the mix.

Whoever is "writing off" the weekend event after that one run of the GFS is crazy. Given a ~1045mb high in place over Quebec prior to the system making it, the surface CAD wedge will be very difficult to erode, even if the storm cut. Propensity for these modeled storm at lead is to be over amplified with increment adjustments in the short term. Given the H5 evolution, a more west-east trajectory is possible for any low that would develop (On the current look. That could easily change). The key takeaway is the prior confluence signature to our north remaining steady, leading to strong Canadian HP to slide overhead before the approach of any system to the west. I actually didn't mind that run. I'll be in Disney starting Wednesday, so I'll take my one front and 80+ temps, but I'll try to follow along this week.

Come on man. You know better. His wife left him too. .