MillvilleWx

Eh. He was okay

I think the deterministic models are certainly better than the past, but the physics get amplified compared to a smoothed ensemble mean. So, one small shift in deterministic will have more drastic impacts comparative. I think the ensemble run this evening showed that perhaps the more strung out nature of the 5H vort might have been too exaggerated as the EPS even looked better with a more pronounced 5H vort pass and deepening low tucked in a climatologically favored position for the sub-forum. I was checking the Prob Height fields and was encouraged to see such a high prob of <540dm location in conjunction to the deterministic. It was sort of classic and even a bit further north than I was expecting. That's probably why there are so many ensemble lows tucked near OCMD and Wallops compared to Kitty Hawk. The ridge out west does bug me a bit. I like my ridges scouring for potatoes in ID and not roaming the northern Rockies in MT. One of those cases where a further downstream ridge axis will want to be a bit flatter compared to when its further upstream. Hopefully a Euro overamplification bias comes into play and it corrects. It's at that range where that can occur. Pretty classic medium range ECMWF.

If only we could get atmospheric rivers into the east coast. Stupid land

EPS certainly looks good to me. Seen way worse at these leads. I'd be encouraged and anyone from PA to NC should be paying close attention to this sucker.

That in itself is insane. I need to move back to bring the snow back with me

The run wasn't the 12z run but it wasn't that far from being a monster hit. At Day 5/6, just having the 5H potential is pretty solid. Don't get sold on one or two operational runs. Use them as ensembles for potential. We likely saw the max potential for this storm on the 12z ECMWF. This isn't bad for part of the sub-forum. HECS would be cool, but they are so low probability. MECS is certainly at play with the type of energy being depicted on guidance. Negatively tilted troughs near my hood, moving eastward are pretty good to see at inside 72 hr leads. From there, lots of variables at play. If you think models have a handle on this in full, then you haven't been looking at east coast weather long enough. Get some sleep y'all. A potentially long weekend ahead full of highs/lows, head fakes, disappointments, and potential jubilation.

The boundary layer was considerably cooler this run compared to the last set. 850mb temps were 1-3C colder at onset which is huge. That was a really nice run. Borderline WSW for the NW folks and a solid WWA for DC proper. Good run

This is a heads up to all that the ZR accumulation maps are just model interpreted rain soundings falling into sub-freezing surface layer. The total ice is another physical paradigm that has a lot of other factors at play. This event is certainly looking frozen for a lot in the forum, but mainly a quick snow to sleet/zr as the lower boundary layer warms quickly with the wave pressing northeast. However, the antecedent airmass ahead and in place during the event will be enough to create some issues, especially with a lot of the precip occurring after prime heating. Low dew points in the region should provide sufficient wet bulb to ~29/30 for areas to the NW of the fall line, which could lead to prolonged icing concerns for the evening. Hourly precip is light for the most part as well, so this should allow for a better accretion environment IF the GFS were to oblige verbatim. Looking at a sample sounding on Monday evening, check out KFDK where the precip algorithm is basically on the border of snow/sleet with ice further to the south and east. This is such a razor thin margin for what type of precip will be dominant during the beginning of greater mid-level ascent. In fact, it's even more of a snow signature for areas north of I-70 which is a benchmark for these types of borderline events. This has Winter Weather Advisory written all over it with an outside shot at WSW for areas north of the interstate and out by I-81. Lift is there. The cold is there for once. It's a matter of boundary layer warmth off the southerly low level flow between 7H and the surface.

One of the key differences with regards to ptype at the beginning of the event is the regional dewpoints which would allow for sufficient wet bulb with sub-0C within the boundary layer. Taking a look at the GFS and ECMWF differences, you can see a drier layer present aloft which would allow for enough of a wet bulb to begin as snow through areas north of Rt 50. ECMWF GFS Notice the contrast in lower dews to the north on the Euro compared to the GFS. This little tidbit may be the difference between a longer frozen event compared to a hit and run. This is a classic north of I-70 remaining frozen longer with more impacts for the evening rush since majority of precip is after 21z. Something to monitor. As far as the UL pattern goes, there isn't much of a difference between the 12/18z runs to the 00z, so the main characteristics of ascent are unchanged with focus mainly on surface and lower boundary layer.

Recovering from a back injury, so I have not followed anything in 2 weeks. I'll try to look at things in the coming days and give my 2 cents. On mid shifts until next Thursday AM. Hope all is well

Congrats to all the Buffalo fans in here. Crazy game .

Idk what kind of luck I'm having right now, but models trending more bullish here for snow. 5H track is close to perfect for Midland, but looks like best ascent is just off to the north. I'm probably going to do an early morning snow chase on Sunday and will return in time for the Ravens game. I really hope you guys can score soon. I'm just happy we're getting precip here.

Probably pretty rare in a Nina since you need that subtropical connection, but the wave amplitude so far has been anomalously in favor of digging s/w with lower lat push compared to normal. Hopefully it can keep the same pattern with more established cold. There were a fair amount of SWFE events in the front 6 years of the 2010's, but they've hit a snag recently. Probably just reverting to averages. Hopefully y'all can cash on one later this month or February.

My favorite part about SWFE events is the ferocity of the thump with a more organized system. No waste on virga, hot and heavy starts, massive aggregates, and typically pastes everything into a wintry scene. I know that you probably really enjoy those living well west of the fall line. Some of the best 12"+ storms are like that in your hood.

I would think so, but of course, there's no guarantee. As @WinterWxLuvr alluded to above, it should increase the threat for winter wx overall, but anything that cuts would still likely be a messy scenario with overrunning, then a flip due to WAA torching the boundary layer. I think the setup lays the grounds for easier ways to score. Significant snow is all prudent to the setup. If we lose amplification of the NHemi pattern and we shift to a zonal regime, anything of significance will be put on the back burner.

The middle to late month time frame is beginning to show a consistent look of either PV lobes dropping into the Great Lakes area, or just a dominant cross-polar flow regime with the 5H bridging nestled over western US/Canada by Day 10+. This is not the typical pattern to score big potential unless we get some kind of phasing to occur in the southern US, but this will be a door opening to high ratio fluff from progressive clippers that dive through the northern plains and head eastward. Snow pack will be increasing to the north and west, leading to less chances of modifying airmasses by the time it reaches Mid Atlantic longitude. This will also lay the grounds for a further south baroclinic alignment which could be fruitful for later in winter. Not a slam dunk obviously, but better than where it currently stands.

My optometrist would be proud

This is awful to hear Rich. Hopefully you can recover quickly and get back on the right track. Caffeine is nasty when it's coming off high doses over time. Thoughts are with you man.

Here's the final result to the evolution posted above. It's just a bit cold......

The GFS is the only model that goes out into the period where any arctic outbreak would occur for east of the Mississippi, so this is only basing off deterministic. That said, the large scale cold push into the Lower 48 is initiated with weak ridge-bridging over western Canada that brings the first round of significantly colder temps with lower heights over the eastern CONUS. There's a slight reshuffle between hrs 300-324, then a more significant bridging occurs towards the end of the run, leading to a more significant blast of arctic air with origins over Siberia as Cross-Polar flow occurs. There's sub 500dm heights on the deterministic over western Ontario into Manitoba at that point, so that's the real surge and matches well with HM's Jan 20-25th peak of when the cold floods the eastern US.

Come back as C6H12O6 and really make this place lively

We need a new Long Range Mid Atlantic Sub Bingo Card @NorthArlington101

The @psuhoffman window is poking its head out now. Obviously some things are likely to change with the overall pattern (+/-) strength of the blocking over top, teleconnection bases, etc. One thing you want to see is established cold over the northern plains working east with time. The cold stretch being advertised is fairly robust beyond 1/16. This is obviously an important element to getting any fruitful winter precip for the area. This is all stemming from a very favorable upper air pattern over the west, bridging into Canada. And then it gets even better..... If you don't fancy this look, Idk what to tell you

Not for snow reasons, but I'm looking forward to moving back north at some point in my career. I was really thinking about doing Florida or SE US offices, but I'm just too much of a lover of synoptics and snow to not move back north. Plus, the education systems in the south are.....pretty abysmal, so I want my kids having a great education and to be closer to family and friends. Growing up in the northeast US then moving to Texas was a culture shock. The people are nice overall, but the environment, weather, and way of life are not for my wife and I. I'm gunning for Sterling/State College/Boston for my forever offices.

We had a crazy gradient in our CWA too. It went from dry to completely parched the further west you went