MillvilleWx

Yes, normally. You can slowly adjust up and most of the public will not notice. Start high and it busts, you lose trust. Bottom line. 99% of the public has zero clue about weather, just like a large chunk don't understand many other aspects of normal services provided, they just follow them.

This. I was looking at the model trend loop at 5H for the Euro and this has been a big shift in the last 4 runs. The positive tilt would cause the surface reflection to scoot further east before being captured. Last night, the ULL actually became a bit diffuse and then redeveloped just off to the southeast. It would pretty much put any major storm idea to bed. Most of the model suite does not do it as this extreme level and still manages to crush everyone without such a dramatic shift. The GFS thermal profile is absolutely laughable, and it was so for our Historic event in west TX the very end of last year. It was AWFUL. We refused to use it because of its thermals. Idk why it's as bad as it is. I'm keeping an eye on the RGEM/NAM/Nam Nest today for any possible hints at changes down the line. They may not be the best at a long term scale due to the nature of model chaos, but they can signify little trends that might be signals down the line. The one thing I would like to see today is a continuation of of the WAA piece aiming at the area directly and either maintaining its QPF field or becoming more juiced to get places closer to WSW criteria before any thought of the coastal.

After staying up for 24 hrs yesterday, I passed out so hard and woke up a hour ago. What did I miss? lol Quite the trend in models last night. I don't have much to add that hasn't been touched on. I'll be around for the 12z runs today.

I'm working to get to Sterling, State College, or Boston. Lot of hard work to get to those offices, but I'm doing my best

Texas has some things going for it. My area doesn't, but I love San Antonio and Dallas/Plano area. Those are fun as hell to visit.

@stormtracker I know we're not allowed to post porn on here, but I'm sure you can make one exception.....

Not so much hate as missing home. Out here just ain't me or my wife's flavor. I am jealous I'm not back home for this one though haha

I will do my best! I'll be giving my two cents often in the MA sub, but I'll pop in for thoughts for y'all as well.

No problem! Someone in here is gonna get nuked. Question is who? Still a bit more to answer, but I love an area like true south-central PA for this one. Harrisburg/York/Gettysburg

That was a pretty funny, unintentional post in the MA sub. I see this being a big storm that'll make many happy in both sub-forums. Wish I was back east for it! I'll be popping in occasion to check in. Got a nice 4 day weekend after a string of mid shifts. Let the good times roll

I'd be real damn excited if I were any of you living from I-80 to the PA line

Good lord I hope this model is right for once

I was just peeking at the 3H level to see the jet structure. On the last panel, you can see the increased ridging downstream as the upstream trough amplifies. The SLP will nestle right inside the right entrance region of the jet, so the low center in NC would likely move N to NNE for a period, but as the trough axis goes negative and the 5H low cuts SE into WV/VA, that's when you'll see the surface reflection hit the brakes and get pulled back towards the coast. It's something the Euro has outlined pretty well for last few days. GFS was too progressive in nature with the trough, allowing the low to be further out to sea before getting pulled back as trough went negative late. So, if you drew a line from the low center, draw it NNE up off Wallops, then cut west, drift, then slide ENE. That's a favorable motion for this type of setup.

Occlusion is when the cold conveyor belt (CCB) catches up to the warm conveyor belt (WCB), or for a lack of better terms, when the cold front on the base of a low wraps up to the warm frontal boundary. Occlusions are the peak maturity of a baroclinic cyclone. Storms that vertically stack reach occlusion phase and move at a slower pace.

It doesn't read like Tip because it's not a thesis with indexes and a freakin table of contents (I love Typhoon Tip btw. Incredible poster). HM wouldn't troll. Bob is probably sharpening his shovel

This is correct. This actually happens with a lot of the blockbuster events that just "snow themselves out" before slowly trekking east out into the Atlantic. One of the classic cases was Feb 2013 in New England. Once it stacked, the storm slowly pulled due eastward, but it strengthened up until the 5H low tucked under Cape Cod. That's when cyclones reach full maturity. It's also a good time to look for TROWALS that can enhance snowfall on their way out.

I'm thinking it's Neil deGrasse Tyson and we're being punked

How do you go from what you posted a hour ago to this? This is great posting. Am I living in a Twilight Zone? Wtf

Areas within the deformation axis would undoubtedly get heavy snow as the resolution factors in the globals will not pick up such intricate banding structures. Considering the strength and placement of the 850 and 700mb lows, there would be a general enhancement to the north and northwest of the central low positions. Plenty of 850-700mb frontogen within the CCB as well. Efficient for piling up over time, even under light to moderate snowfall.

I was watching the evolution of the 85H, 7H, and 5H lows and I was in awe in the synchronous movement and precise placement that is necessary for a regionwide storm of this caliber. The best was the 7H low maturation as it sunk under us then strengthened as it pivoted over Quantico into the Atlantic. 7H and 85H wind field suggests a deformation type axis along a thermal gradient placed between Baltimore to Philly with 40 miles on either side. You can see with the precip enhancement on the 6hr QPF panels between 21z Monday and 12z Tuesday. It was an absolute thing of beauty. The physical properties of the lift with the temps verbatim would be a dendrite fest for just about everyone Monday night as the CCB pivots and gracefully moves to the NE. It's a textbook case of mid-latitude cyclogenesis and occlusion.

The CAD wedge on the Euro is very impressive. The isobar bags straight down into Upstate SC. The thermal profile with the initial snow is very solid. Boundary layer temps between -6 to -10C for several hours with modest frontogenic forcing. A solid 3-6" for basically everyone on Sunday without much trouble.

Oooof. You are a good man Charlie Brown

I'm out of likes for the time being, so here's a

Sorry to you and @mappy for that. Literally have a great disco going and this dude just comes out the shadows and flings crap all over the thread. My pot shot had to be taken as my back is still sore from the epic hip adjustment I got at the chiro. I apologize to you guys.