MillvilleWx

I agree. I think a general 1-4" NW of I-81 is the way to go with 4" chances obviously higher further to the SE. This is a SE LSV type storm. York/LNS/LanCo Hills are the ones that have the best chance to cash.

It's def a primed LSV target with areas like southern half of York to LanCo as the benefactors this go around. I think 3-6" with local to 8" is very doable for those spots. Further NW will be lacking the juice unlike the counties I mentioned, but they can make up for it with lift and better ratios. I think advisory level snowfall is a given at the very least.

Y'all ready for more snow?

That's the HREF! Here'a a link to it for reference and a great one to book mark https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/

It's a CAM, so it can exaggerate in the synoptic scale due to convective feedback concerns that stem from latent heat release and localized pressure falls. @csnavywx touched on the limitations of the higher res models in a synoptic scale setup. It's okay in the short term (<24 hrs) as it can show banding characteristics, but it's prone to larger swings in guidance, especially SLP positioning. The NSSL is the same deal, although I found it to be not as jumpy with handling the surface reflection compared to the ARW/NMM. It is AWFUL with ULL though, so anything like that, avoid at all costs.

ARW was very amped. CAPE would absolutely despise this run for sure. I honestly want him to get hit. He's just barely missed so many times. Would be awesome for the I-95 crew though. There will be winners and losers like any other time. There will be winner and losers within 10-15 miles of each other with this kind of event. Band central

Nah. Like Lady Gaga, I was born this way. I perform all my own stunts

I take it you are probably going to tuck that frame into bed with you tonight? That's some serious lift for a good 2 hr period for your hood

Areawide 4-8" with up to 11-12" max. Speed is too quick for anything that over the top in a marginal lower boundary layer. That's a big WSW event in an 8-10 hr time span

Not fully out yet on TT, but I'll post the love once it comes into view

Noticed that after you said something. That was really close to a bigger hit. Literally a 3 hr sooner closed 85H and Woof

I hope @stormtracker is alone and not in public right now

There will be so many fatties ripping for a 3-6 hour period, you'd think you were at a Grateful Dead concert

Man, I was on the phone talking to my friend and watching the run come in. I get off the phone to come here and say it was another nuking and I saw people about to ledge jump at hr 27. The lift was still there and everything. Some of y'all worry too much lol

Thanks Bob. These are the kind of storms I know you like too. Hot and heavy, no wait, puking fatties, and perfect for that extra long dog walk

Awesome post man. Agreed. I always use caution with a CAM dominant model during synoptic due to those issues you described above. I mentioned earlier that the uniformity we see from globals and even the 12km Parent are likely not going to occur with a setup like this where intense frontogenic forcing at 7H and 85H will be the drivers of banding potential and who gets maxed. I was thinking Easton area over to Kent Island up to CAPE and south of frd might be the jack, and still could, but the I-95 and NW crew up near the line could see the most of the frontogen placement and strength depicted materializes because they will also have the orographic factor to increase the local lift within the lowest confines of the boundary layer. I just got the vaccine, so I’m sitting in a parking lot to make sure I don’t have a reaction or something. Them I’m gonna go home and look more at soundings. Hopefully you guys can get whacked with this one [emoji41] .

This isn't even in the same stratosphere as the last system. Evolution and moisture transport are totally different. Upper levels are different. This will come down to rates and evap cooling of the lowest 3000' in the boundary layer. Baltimore still looks good, but areas west of I-83 need to watch for anymore NW trend.

The watch can be issued prior to fine tuning the grids. I personally don't like doing that, but I think they want to get the word out quickly and then shape up the grids to accurately portray what they are thinking right now.

Do you accept DOGE Coin?

You'll be watching TV by candle light

Agreed. He's made awesome strides. Keep it up @Cobalt!!

Be careful with those maps! That is not accretion being shown but QPF of liquid falling into temps below 32 degrees! There's a lot of physical properties that occur for freezing rain to occur.

I would think by the end of the weekend, the envelope of possibilities SHOULD close by that point, which will aid in the forecast possibilities reflected in the lower levels.