MillvilleWx

Well well well, I guess my Rt 30 to the Turnpike from Gettysburg, up to Harrisburg, over to Philly with a southern line down to 15 miles south of the PA line is in good shape as the best potential within both this sub and the MA sub. Looking good guys. I’m liking Lancaster County with this one, as well as York and Berks. I think the best will be just to the East towards Chester and MoCo PA counties, but 10-15” with Max to 20” is within the realm for someone in the forum. I’m heading to bed over yonder. I’ll have more tomorrow. Have a great night. Cheers! .

All is right in the world today. Great to see you back back @Bob Chill. I learned a lot over the years from you reading the forum and taking in information. Especially long range characteristics. Thanks for being a great person and glad you're doing well back east. Cheers!

Yeah. Mine was me cleaning and trying to get up from a tight spot as a big dude. I severely strained my right lat muscle, translating to acute ridiculopathy throughout my lower lumbar. That was 3 weeks ago and through a ton of treatment and muscle relaxers, it's improved where I can do most of my normal routine, just slowly. Still have some translated pain in the sciatic nerve, but it's tolerable compared to the past few weeks. That was debilitating. I hope you're having a decent day today!

Still resting my back from the injury, so I'm currently buzzing off a 350mg Soma and a tall bottle of water Hence the reason I have not posted about the GFS because I am toast lol

I'll tell you what, the RGEM has been eerily consistent on the evolution so far and placement of the deformation axis. I'm intrigued

As a meteorologist, one of the best things I do with the ICON is I don't look at it and wait for the GFS...... Seriously, it is never used in a NWS setting from anyone I know. Aesthetics only, but it's not a great model and it has been all over the place.

You don't want to mess with a man after he's had his coke

I'm more of a coca cola guy, but everyone is different

I think one of the reasons is the expectation is for the snow on the front end to only reach advisory criteria and they are leaning towards the coastal portion being further east, so it leaves the northern and western areas away from I-83 to be left out. That could be the reason. I'm a little surprised at the decision, but I'm also not at the desk at Sterling, so there might be more on the collaboration end with other offices (State College).

@psuhoffman already touched on the 500mb aspect of the Euro and how it was closer to something big, but just a bit off on the transfer details. Another thing to watch is the evolution of the 700mb low with regards to the transfer. I was checking the model comparison on Pivotal and I noticed the time frame of most interest will be hrs 72/78 for this section of runs. The biggest differences I find is the NAM and Euro hold back the 700mb low over the OH Valley while the remainder of guidance actually is in the process of a full transfer and enhancement along the coast. You can really see the difference at hr 72 GFS ECMWF NAM RGEM This is important because this is part of the delay in redevelopment of the NW precip field as the low becomes captured and pulled to the west. It will be very important to watch how the 7H and 5H lows evolve in the transition from the primary to the coastal and that happens on Monday morning. That is the make or break time period. If the transfer is clean during that time, the 7H low will strengthen off OCMD. If it's slightly late, it'll be elongated and have the greatest enhancement to the north, placing the best deformation axis over NJ. The Euro took a positive step forward, but it wasn't completely there. Regardless, even without the major hit, it still dropped a WSW criteria event across much of the sub-forum. Hopefully the positive trends continue and that piece in New England can scoot out or become weaker to allow for development and a cleaner transfer period.

Oh absolutely. This is a given with history on the side to back it up. There was a convergent area to the NW during the 2016 storm that slammed parts of PA while the deformation axis raked the 81 corridor. I think it's a 700-500mb frontogen that causes it, and that is some high ratio fluff too. Not as dramatic in total rates compared to the 700mb frontogen/deformation axis, but it will pile up quickly. That will not be situated until the 11th hour.

The evolution was perfect for I-95. It's likely underdone too in the intensity department given the dynamics and strength of the 85H and 7H lows. The placement was great though. A good sign

One of the things I'm noticing with the GFSv16 is a shift in the max precip field over the last several runs. It has built up the precip field and expanded the area of 1+" QPF, as well as ramping up within where it places the CCB. It has shifted from the Hudson Valley to central PA in the last 3 runs. Perhaps it's starting to catch on to an earlier capture and better mid-level frontogenic placement to the south? Maybe it's still trying to decipher the surface low placement given the nature of the transfer? Maybe it's Maybillene?

I was looking at the UL evolution and I really don't understand why it did what it did. It wasn't THAT far off from the GFS, but it was way off with the CCB comparatively. GFS has a slightly better 7H presentation, but it wasn't super different. Not sure. Wasn't a terrible run, but I think it could've looked a little better at the surface.

I don't care if I have kids, dogs, or aliens... I have not and will not give up bagel bites. A true guilty pleasure lol

I hope no one asks the storm where it wants to eat for dinner....

I'm curious looking at the run, but it almost looks like some kind of inverted trough feature on the GFS right across central MD. This actually isn't the first model to show this feature either. I wonder if there could be something sneaky like this in the cards that won't be solved fully until closer in?

It was a clean 700mb low pivot under the area on a transfer. The low intensified over near the coast, allowing for the 700mb jet to enhance overhead. This is a classic maturing phase of a cyclone prior to full occlusion. This is also one of the reasons why the surface low sits off OCMD and just doesn't move.

Anthony is 100% spot on. The RGEM was a great example where it wasn't textbook in terms of 5H propagation and overall axis still slightly positive tilted, but it still delivered. The atmospheric dynamic is prone to subtle changes, so for a situation where transfers of energy are in question, the fluidity of everything will have significant feedback concerns in downstream trough/ridge orientations and that in turn translates immediately to the surface. Hopefully some of the questions about feature placement and strength get answered soon, but I have a feeling we might see subtle differences up to the 11th hour since the sensitivity of the setup is that privy to change. Get the whiskey on hand

All good! My timing is just impeccable. The RGEM and ICON certainly would calm the nerves of many in here. Pretty solid runs for both. The intricacy of these little vorts can cause mass chaos with setups like these. Need a clean transfer for this to work no matter what. I'm curious for the GFS and Euro and see where they have that vort over New England.

Damnit @stormtracker, I had a post all set in the other thread and you closed it as I was submitting Anywho, I was going to say the RGEM is much cleaner on the transfer, the 7H low passes cleanly underneath with a strengthening as it pivots south of the area. This allows for the 700mb jet to enhance and point into the region, leading to strong 7H frontogenic forcing placed along I-95 and points just southeast.

I think that's a very solid forecast imo given the trends right now. I like 3-6" with max to 8" for areas south of I-70. This has the 270 corridor from Urbana on SE as the jackpot spot given the WAA trajectory.

This was the biggest takeaway mulling over guidance this morning. This is shifting from any mega storm potential for around here. A solid WSW is still on table for sure, but 1'+ is looking less likely with the trough looking like that. 7H was meh until too late too

The 7H low really doesn't get going until its to the southeast of the area. It's fairly mature into the OH Valley, but then becomes discombobulated as it tries to pivot under the area. It doesn't get its act together until late, so the area just gets some passing snow showers. It's a much better run for NYC/LI as the low CCB gets cranking around CNJ and then moves north. It was close, but no cigar for the area. Still has a solid front end piece that will whiten the area and it's still colder than any GFS run in terms of thermals.