MillvilleWx

I’ll move this over here so that it doesn’t get lost as it pertains to the coming setup.

It doesn’t mean this is a lock, guarentee, etc…but that’s a pretty good sign at lead that it might be on to something. Now, this pattern incoming is very complex, so it might not grasp the magnitude of what’s to come, but you want to see run-to-run consistency on the AI, that’s for sure. Hopefully it’s seeing something that the operational ECMWF can connect with as we move closer. We shall see. A good experiment for this pattern. I’ll be keeping tabs.

I said this is a good snow pattern We should get some snow out of this. Whether it’s “FOLKS” worthy or not is up to some timing/phasing luck and positioning of the thermal gradient in the right spot. GFS was pretty damn close as @psuhoffmanmentioned. ECMWF was on the money. Should be a fun 7-10 days of tracking once again. Winter is still rolling along. We still have February to go too.

That’s really impressive for moonlight. Wow

That was @WinterWxLuvr I’m not sure what happened to him. I enjoyed his posts.

Popping in to say that’s a sweet 5H vort panel during the storm height. Hopefully this has legs. This is a good period for snow prospects.

Crazy game. The Mid Atlantic is a great spot to be for football fans.

Season Total: 11.6”

Absolutely! Would love to meet both you and @wxdude64 for a relaxing weekend with some cold drinks. Will absolutely keep in touch with both of you guys so we can plan a meet up. Would also love a good spot for some grub, so feel free to pass on those recommendations

Pretty simple forecast here. 0.5-2" for basically everyone at this juncture. Not really much room for boom potential. Boom is probably 2-3", so there might be some WWA's that come from this one. I won't even be here for any of it, so please enjoy any flakes that fall. I will be living vicariously

Heights flatter as it approaches our area. Trajectory of the 7H moisture field is east-northeast and too far south. Best chance in the sub for anything of significance is likely south of Rt50 and mainly the Eastern Shores of MD/DE/Part of VA. This wasn't a good run for many here. Not totally dead, but approaching if this keeps up. The 5H pattern was just not applicable for our latitude.

Looks like 10.5" Jeb. Good storm for your old stomping grounds

I might make it a point to come down and visit! Love to travel and visit new areas. I'll shoot you a PM at some point in the future to coordinate. Little busy for this month, but there will be other opportunities in coming months for a shot

I might have to come visit yours and @WesternFringe area at some point. You guys have quite the microclimate down there with the elevation factors. Probably incredibly pretty too in all the seasons.

Kuchera is useful in some cases, but you really have to be mindful of the algo. Last storm was a case that it differed from model to model and if you didn’t account for that (Hello, it’s me), then you could be a little too high on the forecast. HRRR corrected inside 12 hrs with the last forecast and that’s why totals dropped and became more realistic. RAP and a lot of the other CAMs did not and it inflated everything. This is a 10:1 type storm with MAYBE slightly higher for areas that get banded, like the eastern shore. EVEN THEN, 10:1 might still be the preference here. This is something I will be mindful of in the future, for sure.

With skies beginning to clear out, winds will begin mixing more efficiently to the surface. Blowing snow will be occurring this morning and afternoon before subsiding later. It is truly deep winter in Edgewater with snow blowing off the roofs of houses with locally reduced visibility occurring. Peak climo for snowfall in these parts too, so there is low probability of much melting today outside some very sunny spots.

Hey guys! Stopping by to say hello and that hopefully some of you got in on the past system. Hated those trends inside 12 hrs of lowering snow totals due to the weak 7H FGEN and the confluence area to the north playing a detriment to the northward expansion of the low-level moisture flux. I did see a few got over 5" in here, but a majority sounds like 2-4" which is a bummer for the southern tier. I know I over forecasted the M/D this go around, so it sucks to say. Hopefully there's a lot more chances on the horizon and we can get a good sub-forum wide shelling. Stay warm and chat again soon

I saw Feb 2006 and immediately needed a cigarette. You can't be mentioning that storm around me without me getting a little hot and bothered. That's a top 3 snow memory for me. 4.5"/hr snowfall with a full hour of thunder and lightning. 20" on the dot and most of it came in 5.5 hrs. Just unbelievable. I would pay good money to see that again.

Updated snow totals Season Total: 10.6"

Official measurement for the event was 10.3" Snow started around 1:15AM and lasted until 10 or so. Not bad at all.

Ahhh. Gotcha. They might be able to change the Geolocation to somewhere nearby so this doesn't happen. Yeah it wouldn't be exact, but better than getting over-written on an event to event basis. I would contact them and see if that is feasible. I don't think that would be too much trouble. Dept of Highways one isn't going to change, so it would have to be you even if they are the ones that suck (Office Space reference).

You and @CAPE always have beautiful house pics in the snow. I love the lights!

That's annoying. Idk why they would do that. Are you a trained spotter by chance? Typically they would never replace a trained spotter with a Spotter ID. I sent them an email early this morning and I got setup with a Spotter ID since that was not a requirement out in Midland, TX area. It is for LWX, so I reached out and since I'm a NWS Employee, they basically pushed it through without me needing a class (Because I can literally teach the class, and have! lol). So, I obtained a Spotter ID and set a Geolocation. If you don't have the spotter ID, that could be why they don't include it. Dept of Highways is probably deemed more trustworthy (Debatable in my experience), so that would take precedent. Idk why they don't just accept both. Not my call, but I know I would.

One of the larger discrepancies I noticed was the Kuchera numbers from some of the CAMs were much higher than that of the GFS, HRRR, and FV3 CAM which lead to inflated totals in the forecast and drove up probabilities in the NBM and probabilistic tools. When I assessed the HRRR Kuchera ratios, they started coming into line about 6 hrs prior to the event with lower ratios fine tuned compared to earlier runs with those very high totals. The parent RAP did not adjust, thus the numbers were inflated. One of the things I got caught up in is I didn't take those considerations into account with my initial forecast, and I didn't adjust enough for the stronger subsidence regime that would be between the 85H and 7H FGEN alignment. That's partly why my forecast busted in some areas, so I apologize for being a bit inflated, especially in the northern tier of the sub-forum. I strive for excellence since I know many look into my forecasts for expectation and potential decision making. I'll try to be a little more thorough next time and perhaps a little less aggressive away from the means for a setup of this caliber. Sometimes you have to pick and chose when to be more aggressive than guidance and this probably wasn't one of those times. I'm glad many here got 5+" and were able to enjoy a good ole fashioned Mid Atlantic snowstorm. Hopefully many in here can enjoy another this weekend. Fingers crossed!

You might be able to get away with it, but honestly, it's probably a good idea to re-season a few times a year, so what better way to kick off 2025 Blackstone season with a fresh seasoning of bacon or good beef tallow. I'd say this is a perfect excuse to do it