MillvilleWx

EC is close to a top end scenario, but I would put it at the 75-90th percentile at this point. 12z UKMet yesterday was the 99th percentile. This run is very very impressive.

What’s the record snowfall in Blacksburg? Was it ‘93?

19z NBM is gaudy to say the least. That’s an incredibly impressive signal at this lead.

Been busy and I come back to this output. Good God almighty. Danville, VA would be pounded into the F’in stones with that. GFS will come north and scale back in magnitude, but this is truly turning into what could be a special storm for so many. EC and GEM leading the charge along with the AIFS and Ensemble output. The hi-res are absolutely going to have some bonkers runs later this week and weekend. I like what I am seeing.

Seems like it which is always a great sign. I’m getting pretty excited, but still holding back expectations until 00z Thursday. Like the trends so far.

He was one of the best. My mentor in college. Learned so much from him that I still use to this day. His number one things he preached for a final forecast was “confidence”. When you make that final forecast, use wording that instills confidence for the consumer of the information. There’s always room to describe some uncertainty, but don’t wish-wash on something. Be bold. Never forgot that.

Hey guys!! Still trying to gauge the Synoptics for this storm for PA. One fact is the ratios should be excellent and have the potential to breach 15:1 in areas away from the M/D. The key is where the 7H FGEN aligns. The EC output is what you want as that helps with the second part of the system and really gets the prolonged snowfall signature across much of the area through Sunday, even lingering into Sunday night. I think the bar is probably 3-6” for the floor, and 16-20” for the ceiling. Still time to parse details, but the one plus is it’s either gonna be snow or no at this point. It expecting mixing at all for this subforum!

Ninja’d you by seconds, but that’s pretty much it. It would’ve been less of a bomb for northern areas, better for south of the PA Turnpike. There’s more than one way for us to score a big event down this way. North-central VA is probably ground zero at this point.

Still would’ve been a really good run for these parts. A tighter cutoff of heavier totals further north, but probably not till north of PA turnpike. Solid diffluent signature with ascent focused over the area. Probably 4-6 more hours of the good stuff, followed by a tapper from southwest to northeast. Good run, even if it wasn’t a top end solution. It’s also the Icon, so it’s just for fun at this point

Judging by the synoptic presentation and QPF expansion, you’re dead on there. Good run from the Icon FWIW.

I’m gonna say this right now and you can hold me to it; If you are north of the M/D, your average ratios will likely be >13:1 If you are between I-70 and the M/D and west of the fall line, you’re probably between 11-13:1 average. East of fall line in that bracket, probably between 10-12:1 ratio average. South of I-70 and east of the BR, 9-11:1 average with higher than 11:1 in elevations >800’ BR will be 12-15:1 thanks to elevation East of fall lines out of I-70 latitude, probably 9-11:1 average with best away from coast. Im probably missing some areas, but the key word is AVERAGE!! There will be portions that are better for sure, and the EC shows that very well. Classic ratio distribution. Keep this in mind and use QPF to create your own top and bottom ends of your snow range.

Just saying for many of us in here, the front end portion of the storm on the EC was still a warning level event before the coastal enhancement. SWFE’s around here tend to surprise in a positive direction. Keep that in mind. Idk if you guys remember the forecasts going into Feb 2014, but we obliterated the forecasts on the SWF portion of that storm and exceeded expectations. This storm has that type of potential. That connection of moisture between 925-500mb is incredibly healthy. We just need the general synoptics to hold. This is a southern stream addition we haven’t had in a while. That will make a difference to who gets hit the hardest.

Yes, Thursday will be everything coming into the NA RAOB network. However, we are putting recon schedules out to sample the area in the Pacific that will play an importance with the digging energy in the coming days. We will have plenty of sampling going on. N/S is probably the area to keep close eye on, although that seems to be well documented on guidance right now.

As @Eskimo Joealluded to above, the fact the GEFS is still showing warning level snowfall on a mean after what we saw from its deterministic partner is a positive attribute to have at this lead. The other guidance seems steady with its presentation which should also solidify the prospects for a MECS. Models can have hiccups and the GFS is no stranger to them. This is still a very good looking setup with some important pieces still not even fully materialized yet. We’ll see some model discontinuity on occasion until every player is on the field of North America and it begins to play out. If the EC suite comes in similar in its presentation last succession of runs, then it’s all systems are a go, still.

Thanks. The Canadian inputs will be a nice touch, especially around the Great Lakes which we’ve seen with verification. Does better with LES physics and outputs absolutely bias low on the NBM 4.3 around that area. Also noticed the 5.0 biases low on these synoptic scale setups, but does do a solid job on the edges, so it’s give and take. We’ll be chatting as we get closer to implementation. Excited for the new changes in version 5.0. Back to your regularly scheduled programming.

Still in testing. It runs several hrs after the NBM 4.3, so that will bump up with the next run, don’t worry. It also is biased low on these kinds of setups. This is what the testing is for! We have lots of comparison analysis and notes for developers that will be sorted out after the winter season.

You and I both know that those are some gaudy percentages at this range. This is usually reserved for upper echelon potential to see this type of signal. Gonna be a fun storm, man. Been a long time since we had one of these. Your area looks incredible for this one too. Let’s bring it home

That is an incredibly bullish NBM output right here. As is, this is probably closer to the 50-70th percentile outcome. The 75-90th percentile is likely 20-25% more on top of that. I’ll be around following today, but I got errands to run later, some of which involves around preparing for this monster. Really like where we stand right now.

I don’t think people realize how ridiculous this AIFS output is in the grand scheme of things. This is a crazy output that would certainly lend credence to a potential for 1 inch or more of QPF for a large portion of this sub forum. Even if you don’t get 1 inch of precip from this set up you can still walk away with 8+ inches of snow. Incredible set up. We have brewing right here. Good times

That is straight from the Dynamics textbooks

The ICON was a positive step in the handling of 5H with even some room for more improvement for the sub-forum. The GFS will get on board by Saturday afternoon

ETA (Old NAM) and Euro

Did you try Walmart Connect?

Thank you my man. I’m a weenie at heart, but I’m also a meteorologist by degree and occupation. It’s important to remain level headed and balanced. I want this stuff as much as anyone, but weather is a fickle beast. Gotta stay grounded! Appreciate the kind words.

This is what I told my Dad. Cautiously optimistic, but not completely in the fully sold category.