MillvilleWx

At some point there will be a sharp western edge on this one, but question is how far back west. There will be a crazy west to east gradient before you reach the coastal Delmarva, but could be a ton of precip between the edge and there. EC continues to be one of the eastern most solutions and it’s still upping the ante. Good sign.

You can see the definition beginning to show up in lower res models of the norlun trough. This one is over south-central PA and would extend down to the south-southeast. Someone on the northwest side is going to get in on a nice surprise. Great look on AIFS now. QPF distribution looking very solid.

Thanks man. I put a lot of effort into that one. A lot to go over. I’m hoping everything materializes and we all get some solid fun from this one.

Agreed for inside the beltway and nearby areas. I think we'll see some light accums in elevations above 500' before the later fun after dark. That NAMNest run was almost legendary but it legit WOULD NOT CLOSE OFF until well to our southeast. Was so annoying, so hopefully that was a hiccup. It had a ton of potential. What was interesting is regardless of that, the eastern shore got hammered. I think DE might be a great position for this one.

NAMNest 5H progression would be a kick in the nuts for anyone west of the Bay. Takes forever to close off, so its the eastern Delmarva and points north that get into anything appreciable and just some modest stuff away from there. Shore would get buried. Thermals are meh too within the lower PBL. I'm more worried about that than anything else tbh.

We can have a general idea prior to the storm, but exactly where will be a nowcast and forecast adjustments would happen accordingly.

The norlun trough is going to be a huge wildcard in this one around here. That will surprise where ever it sets up. Could very well be back towards your area or further east. Regardless, it'll be a crazy storm to watch evolve.

This was basically my forecast at WPC, minus 1-2" almost everywhere. Edit: To clarify, I am 1-2" HIGHER than Sterling atm, but it's still early and time for adjustments in either direction.

This will not be anything like 2/5/10 my man. Feb 1987 is a closer match. 2/5/10 was a whole other monster and a MUCH better 5H evolution, and it was cooler.

If I lived east of I-95, I'd be pretty excited on this one, especially the Delmarva area. I think we are seeing some convergence on a scenario of heavy snow for areas east of the fall line, however do NOT discount this IVT setup to the northwest of the SLP. That could be SNEAKY good for some, but in a narrow corridor. I like the trends so far, but staying reserved. Busy at work, but thoughts will be made in the Heavy Snow & Ice Discussion later. I'll be popping in at times.

Actually, just woke up. I’m on day shift

Y’all better not sleep on the norlun trough idea. That thing could be pretty epic if that ends up being the main player for snowfall. Even if the coastal misses, a solid phase and a moisture transport between 925-500mb can still be pretty prolific. Forecasted some 12-18” norluns across the Northeast in my time. Not saying 12-18” is in the realm of possibility here, but they can pack quite a punch for a period when they setup. Liked the tends a lot today for the storm prospects, so I want to see this maintain or improve beginning tonight. That NS interaction across the Continental divide into the plains will be really important. More interaction will lead to better influences downstream. That was something noted on cluster analysis that more interaction and phasing early allows for heights downstream over Atlantic Canada to pump meaning greater amplitude of the trough upstream. A positive feedback mechanism. This is also coincident to the more coupled 25H jet composition which is what you want for an intensifying SLP along the Atlantic seaboard. I remain on the winter desk tomorrow through the weekend, so I’m still trying to reel this one home for us. My time here depends on it according to Randy

I expect things begin consolidating within the next couple runs, then we parse details on ratios and location of the IVT. That is truly a difficult task in these setups too, so that could be a truly short term trend monitoring which I hate lol

The GFS is just one tool in the tool box, but we don't base full forecasts on it. We also deviate from the GFS when it's on an island, so there are times (More frequent last few years) we take a non-GFS forecast approach and blend other guidance accordingly. WPC consistently beats the GFS on precip, and that's because we deviate from it when it's applicable.

Setup is truly close to being something larger, but it's so freaking convoluted to get to the boom scenario and the AI guidance is starting to get the locked in look on the IVT type scenario (Which scores us some snow), but the coastal enhancement might be just out of reach. GFS is the GFS, so I'll admire it, but it's on its own at this point. Something in the middle of the EC and GFS would actually be pretty sweet, which is kind of what the AIFS is signaling.

It was sampling the next disturbance in the Pacific which would be our main wave for this one. I’m still in the camp of getting a little something, but the stars have to align to get anything truly appreciable. I’ll take anything that falls, so I hope we get hammered beyond belief, but I’m skeptical on the monster scenarios, unless we see models converge in the next 48 hrs.

We are at that time of year where the difference in temp between work and my house near the South River can be as much as 10-15F difference. Driving home yesterday, I hit 54F on Rt50 and once I pulled into the driveway at the house, it was 44F. South river was still partially frozen in spots but should be gone in the next few days. Water temp still probably 33-36F though, so the cooler temps in the immediate neighborhoods will probably remain chillier than inland.

Yeah, that was a big take away for me this morning when interrogating like I normally do once I get settled in. The afternoon package yesterday started giving me hints of this being a sloppier phase, or phasing a bit too late leading to a more eastern solution, or weaker and south. I think the major bomb solutions are relatively off the table, but there is still some time for adjustment. So long as the vort ejection gets sheared to the west before any phasing, we will not be looking at any massive outputs, but we can still score something in this setup. It's not completely dead yet........

Looks like some inversion tendencies coupled with snow melt and evaporation leading to higher concentrations of fine particulate matter during the mornings and early afternoons. Moderate levels expected, so nothing too crazy, but some localized maxima are certainly plausible in the AM. https://mde.maryland.gov/programs/air/airqualitymonitoring/pages/aqforecast.aspx

On the winter desk 6 of the next 7 days. Hopefully I can bring us home

2014 was such a wild winter. That run of snow and cold was incredible. We had snow on the ground for over 40 days at Millersville when I was in college. Surreal

Yes they do. I want to check the cluster analysis once the ensembles are out. I'm curious to see if there was a notable jump in members with a more amplified setup. This morning it was the 3rd of 4th most in the camp, however I have seen things flip before, so it'll be something to look at. That was a really stark shift in run-to-run variance, so I'm wondering if there is some merit to that. It's still at the D3-4 turn in terms of time, plenty of time for a notable adjustment.

You would chase you say? I might know a guy