MillvilleWx
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Everything posted by MillvilleWx
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That includes you my friend
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I would shit a brick if we got a redux of that. It’s still my Dad’s favorite rates driven event. Said he’s never seen snowflakes bigger than he did from that one.
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Heaviest snowfall for east of the fall line looks to be just before sunset and beyond so should be good. Anything earlier than that, I agree it’ll be difficult. I’m curious to see the dynamic in that for this one. Probably some weird gradients forming in MD and NoVA.
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Along and east of I-95 will need to watch this very closely. This is giving shades of some of the monsters of the past for east of the fall line. I feel really good if I’m along the west shore of the Bay and points east.
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I would only end up with 18”. Boo hoo!
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I was seeing 12-15:1 in the CCB and norlun on the desk today from guidance. I was shocked. It was brutal 5-7:1 during the day, but as height falls ensued, it crashed hard to climo and better. Even the NAMNest got to 13:1 on the eastern shore. Someone is about to get hammered on the Delmarva and I’m liking my spot here right along the west shore of the Bay. Hopefully we can bring this home
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The band will probably be a bit wider than that, but the premise stands. Idk where, but my wag is somewhere between Winchester to just east of the Potomac. That seems to be where consensus is lying. It’ll orient north-northwest to south-southeast too. I’m looking forward to seeing how that materializes.
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That’s part of the norlun trough. Watch for that scenario closely. I’m not kidding when I say someone well away from the coast will have a nice surprise.
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I believe I had your ratios at the storm height around 10-12:1, but there could easily banding that eclipses that. 15:1 max within a CCB banded structure or within the norlun trough is plausible, but I would lean towards 8-10:1 storm average overall.
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Use a blend of model guidance which have their own ratio calculations and apply weights. We do that ourselves as the forecaster. I look at soundings and lots of other variables to create my own in-house SLR output which starts from the NBM and work from there. It’s a cool process and a lot of work, but we use every tool in the toolbox sometimes!
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NBM implied ratios are always too high, that’s why. Look at QPF instead and adjust with own ratios.
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Italian food is definitely amazing that way and incredible hoagies. I’ll give you great food although we are good with that over yonder too Here’s to a nice storm
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It was 48° for a high in my neighborhood and by the time I got back home, it was 45°. Cold waters doing numbers keeping this area cool
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Bay temp near me is like 34°, so I doubt that right now. We just melted the ice past few days haha
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Why on earth would you want to ruin DC by sticking in NJ. Oh God
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Correct! I do think there’s a limit right now for west of the Bay, but sky is the limit for the Delmarva. I would kill to be on eastern LI or Souteast Mass for this sucker. I really like the look for DE. They should be preparing for an onslaught Sunday evening into the overnight. Tons of mashed potatoes.
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At some point there will be a sharp western edge on this one, but question is how far back west. There will be a crazy west to east gradient before you reach the coastal Delmarva, but could be a ton of precip between the edge and there. EC continues to be one of the eastern most solutions and it’s still upping the ante. Good sign.
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You can see the definition beginning to show up in lower res models of the norlun trough. This one is over south-central PA and would extend down to the south-southeast. Someone on the northwest side is going to get in on a nice surprise. Great look on AIFS now. QPF distribution looking very solid.
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Thanks man. I put a lot of effort into that one. A lot to go over. I’m hoping everything materializes and we all get some solid fun from this one.
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Agreed for inside the beltway and nearby areas. I think we'll see some light accums in elevations above 500' before the later fun after dark. That NAMNest run was almost legendary but it legit WOULD NOT CLOSE OFF until well to our southeast. Was so annoying, so hopefully that was a hiccup. It had a ton of potential. What was interesting is regardless of that, the eastern shore got hammered. I think DE might be a great position for this one.
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NAMNest 5H progression would be a kick in the nuts for anyone west of the Bay. Takes forever to close off, so its the eastern Delmarva and points north that get into anything appreciable and just some modest stuff away from there. Shore would get buried. Thermals are meh too within the lower PBL. I'm more worried about that than anything else tbh.
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We can have a general idea prior to the storm, but exactly where will be a nowcast and forecast adjustments would happen accordingly.
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The norlun trough is going to be a huge wildcard in this one around here. That will surprise where ever it sets up. Could very well be back towards your area or further east. Regardless, it'll be a crazy storm to watch evolve.
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This was basically my forecast at WPC, minus 1-2" almost everywhere. Edit: To clarify, I am 1-2" HIGHER than Sterling atm, but it's still early and time for adjustments in either direction.
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This will not be anything like 2/5/10 my man. Feb 1987 is a closer match. 2/5/10 was a whole other monster and a MUCH better 5H evolution, and it was cooler.
