MillvilleWx

This will not be anything like 2/5/10 my man. Feb 1987 is a closer match. 2/5/10 was a whole other monster and a MUCH better 5H evolution, and it was cooler.

If I lived east of I-95, I'd be pretty excited on this one, especially the Delmarva area. I think we are seeing some convergence on a scenario of heavy snow for areas east of the fall line, however do NOT discount this IVT setup to the northwest of the SLP. That could be SNEAKY good for some, but in a narrow corridor. I like the trends so far, but staying reserved. Busy at work, but thoughts will be made in the Heavy Snow & Ice Discussion later. I'll be popping in at times.

Actually, just woke up. I’m on day shift

Y’all better not sleep on the norlun trough idea. That thing could be pretty epic if that ends up being the main player for snowfall. Even if the coastal misses, a solid phase and a moisture transport between 925-500mb can still be pretty prolific. Forecasted some 12-18” norluns across the Northeast in my time. Not saying 12-18” is in the realm of possibility here, but they can pack quite a punch for a period when they setup. Liked the tends a lot today for the storm prospects, so I want to see this maintain or improve beginning tonight. That NS interaction across the Continental divide into the plains will be really important. More interaction will lead to better influences downstream. That was something noted on cluster analysis that more interaction and phasing early allows for heights downstream over Atlantic Canada to pump meaning greater amplitude of the trough upstream. A positive feedback mechanism. This is also coincident to the more coupled 25H jet composition which is what you want for an intensifying SLP along the Atlantic seaboard. I remain on the winter desk tomorrow through the weekend, so I’m still trying to reel this one home for us. My time here depends on it according to Randy

I expect things begin consolidating within the next couple runs, then we parse details on ratios and location of the IVT. That is truly a difficult task in these setups too, so that could be a truly short term trend monitoring which I hate lol

The GFS is just one tool in the tool box, but we don't base full forecasts on it. We also deviate from the GFS when it's on an island, so there are times (More frequent last few years) we take a non-GFS forecast approach and blend other guidance accordingly. WPC consistently beats the GFS on precip, and that's because we deviate from it when it's applicable.

Setup is truly close to being something larger, but it's so freaking convoluted to get to the boom scenario and the AI guidance is starting to get the locked in look on the IVT type scenario (Which scores us some snow), but the coastal enhancement might be just out of reach. GFS is the GFS, so I'll admire it, but it's on its own at this point. Something in the middle of the EC and GFS would actually be pretty sweet, which is kind of what the AIFS is signaling.

It was sampling the next disturbance in the Pacific which would be our main wave for this one. I’m still in the camp of getting a little something, but the stars have to align to get anything truly appreciable. I’ll take anything that falls, so I hope we get hammered beyond belief, but I’m skeptical on the monster scenarios, unless we see models converge in the next 48 hrs.

We are at that time of year where the difference in temp between work and my house near the South River can be as much as 10-15F difference. Driving home yesterday, I hit 54F on Rt50 and once I pulled into the driveway at the house, it was 44F. South river was still partially frozen in spots but should be gone in the next few days. Water temp still probably 33-36F though, so the cooler temps in the immediate neighborhoods will probably remain chillier than inland.

Yeah, that was a big take away for me this morning when interrogating like I normally do once I get settled in. The afternoon package yesterday started giving me hints of this being a sloppier phase, or phasing a bit too late leading to a more eastern solution, or weaker and south. I think the major bomb solutions are relatively off the table, but there is still some time for adjustment. So long as the vort ejection gets sheared to the west before any phasing, we will not be looking at any massive outputs, but we can still score something in this setup. It's not completely dead yet........

Looks like some inversion tendencies coupled with snow melt and evaporation leading to higher concentrations of fine particulate matter during the mornings and early afternoons. Moderate levels expected, so nothing too crazy, but some localized maxima are certainly plausible in the AM. https://mde.maryland.gov/programs/air/airqualitymonitoring/pages/aqforecast.aspx

On the winter desk 6 of the next 7 days. Hopefully I can bring us home

2014 was such a wild winter. That run of snow and cold was incredible. We had snow on the ground for over 40 days at Millersville when I was in college. Surreal

Yes they do. I want to check the cluster analysis once the ensembles are out. I'm curious to see if there was a notable jump in members with a more amplified setup. This morning it was the 3rd of 4th most in the camp, however I have seen things flip before, so it'll be something to look at. That was a really stark shift in run-to-run variance, so I'm wondering if there is some merit to that. It's still at the D3-4 turn in terms of time, plenty of time for a notable adjustment.

You would chase you say? I might know a guy

I noticed on my walk yesterday evening how pristine the undisturbed areas look even after all these weeks. It still gives off a sheen when the light reflects off it. It's so smooth and the minor undulations can be noticed when you look at it more intently. That storm will be remembered forever in these parts. As for the weather this morning, balmy in the mid-40s when I left the house. Felt really nice actually.

As a meteorologist who does this shit professionally, we are all weirdos. No other set of people in their right mind will divulge into breakdowns of a computer simulation for an entity that is far more complex in the grand scheme than any of us can comprehend at lead times greater than 24 hrs, gnashing and gnawing of teeth when the algorithm's in place don't spit out a shade of blue. Weather enthusiasts are some of the more complex individuals in that we take immense amounts of gratification in cheering and lamenting on a physical construct we have absolutely no control over. If you have ever looked at a model run beyond 72 hrs to see what COULD happen in the world of weather and ran to comment on a message board....congratulations, you are a weirdo. I for one accept my weirdness and show it as a badge because weather is something all individuals have to contend with and it's fascinating to know how something so complex can yield such incredible results. Fin

I’m actually at the point I want a thaw to just get rid of the snowcrete. Then it can try for one last hurrah for the season. Either way, this winter is one to remember with the snowcrete storm followed by a crazy sustained cold period.

Got woken up at 230am with a brutal migraine and ended up calling out of work (Thankfully non-operational shift). Is anyone else having headaches recently? I think the dryness is starting to crush my sinuses and hits at night. Might have to start back up a saline rinse regimine

I always a appreciate a strong defensive performance. This is beautiful. Mike MacDonald is a mastermind. So happy for him and the Seahawks right now.

I am loving this ass kicking the Pats are receiving. Not a Bad Bunny listener, but I enjoyed the vibe and energy from the music. My Mom is from Ecuador, so I understand some of the lyrics. It was a good time.

Some shots I took with @katabaticwhen we visited Swallow Falls on Friday 2/6

I want to take a moment and thank @katabatic for amazing hospitality and a truly fun trip out to Western MD and the Canaan Valley region, including a slide over into Davis, WV. That was such a fun day of friendship and loving every moment of winter. It was a truly deep winter day with temps in the upper teens to low 20’s with snow falling the entire day. Saw all of the intensities too from light flurries to heavy snow. The Arctic front capture is a moment I’ll never forget. That was absolutely wild. It’s been a long time since I’ve seen something like that. Likely since 2/14/15 up at college. Would do it again in a heart beat!! Thanks again @katabatic!! Now I have excuse to come up there since we never got a chance to eat at Englanders