MillvilleWx

This is going to be a pretty bad run for west of the bay unfortunately

It's doable for sure, but expecting a MECS for our area is not what this setup is about, unless you are on the eastern shore. SECS for US15 on east is in play with higher potential the further east you go. I-95 I would say has the best chance on the other side of the bay, but around 30-40% for the time being. I see the shore being the spot for this one. I think they get pounded.

Roadtrip to Dogfish Head? lol

It's still a 2-4" US15 to I-95, then 3-6" I-95 to CAPE's area, then it's easy WSW east of there. Basically all timing with the southern stream s/w. It is further west and phases/goes ape about 6 hrs too late for the fun to be further west like the 12z run. Not the end of the world, but still pretty par for the course for the expectation right now. Outside a few glory runs from guidance, this is actually pretty consistent right now.

Porn. It would be porn

Take a look at that whiter piece diving out of Canada straight into the trough. That’s a very important piece to this puzzle for a bigger storm potential. The quicker and sharper that dives into the system, it will allow the trough to organize better, sharper, and begin to tilt the axis neutral to negative. The only thing the GFS didn’t do that the Euro did is close off, which I am kind of surprised it didn’t. Surface could’ve been better imo. Maybe not Euro nuclear, but better. It’s really close to getting there. Regardless, it fits well into even my prediction right now, so solid trends on guidance.

Look north for the fun

Funny thing is my handle was actually representative of Millersville University, and not the DE town. The irony in all this is my parents used to live in Millville, DE after I graduated school. They live in Sarasota now. I’ll be in NW MoCo for this one.

Popping in for my afternoon thoughts after waking up not too long ago. Looking at guidance leaves me feeling decent about my thinking on how this could go down. I-95 and east certainly have a good shot at WSW criteria stuff if the current trends hold. West of there is still very much in the game as well, but I feel a high end advisory for Rt15 to the Interstate is most likely higher end result. Two parter here with the NS vort pivoting overhead to create a nice widespread fluff for pretty much everyone in sub. Temps aloft will be plenty cold and modest ascent within the DGZ should create a nice period of dendrites for Late Friday afternoon into the evening. GFS and Euro are somewhat similar in getting more energy to phase into the disturbance, but timing of the two models is off just enough to have significant differences at our latitude. I think one thing I liked about the Euro is more NE energy diving in around hrs 72-84, creating a better phased solution that ultimately helps close off 5H and 7H to our south. @Eskimo Joe posted that tweet from my buddy at WPC talking about the 7H trends. That is a massive step in the right direction for the Megalopolis crew in here as that would create an axis of deformation on the NW flank of the the 700mb low. You’d have pretty decent banding structures over the Eastern shore if that were to occur, and snow would linger on the western flank of the QPF field as the trough pivots under us. GFS has a similar idea, but it is later and that allows the best axis of deformation to shift into coastal NJ. Storms like this can also carry some sneaky setups like Trowals, but a setup like this one would probably be more aligned for the coastal plain. Overall, I think 2-4” is very much at play right now for areas along and east of I-81 with 3-6” a solid low end for along and east of I-95 with potential for more on the eastern shore to the coast. Continue the trends and everything will get amped up further west in terms of projected snowfall. So long as we keep the nice PVA signature at Fri HH, everyone should see some snow without getting skunked. Gotta hold that little piece! That’s all from me. I will have a busy night at work due to a sneaky possible icing event here, so might not have much to say overnight, but I’m rooting hard for a nice event like everyone else since I’ll be home to enjoy it. Good luck y’all!

My favorite part in all this is actually that little piece of fun prior to any coastal. It's a legit shot to get 2-4" of straight powder for much of the area with barely any effort. Dendrites for days

That upslope in WV is gonna be no joke locally. Snowshoe should be getting more fresh powder, which I am always a fan of seeing.

@CAPE has some of the best shots in the sub when his house gets caked in snow. Legit dreams right there.

It's nice to see you south and east folks get a bit of a heater every once in a while. Doesn't happen often, but y'all can cash when things are right. I'm hoping we all are dancing with a couple inches of snow at least. Anymore to me is gravy. I'll be with my family and watching snow fall. Not much to hate there.

06z Euro would have been a nice spot for the sub-forum. Solid snow probably I-95 on east with Advisory level stuff to the west, easy. @CAPE @Lowershoresadness @frd and anyone on the coast would have a great time if that run kept going.

Popping in for a quick thought on the storm. I mentioned last night (Or the night before. I can't remember what day it is on mids), that these Miller B or hybrid types are not our climo, but the threat was certainly not dead. I do like the prospects of some light snow, at the very least while the 5H vort pivots overhead and provides a period of ascent over a pretty suitable airmass. This might be a close miss in the end game, but these storms needs a lot of ingredients to go right for our hood. I'm gonna be home for once and it might snow, and I got to tell ya, that is the one thing I am hoping for. Snow falling is just something I enjoy, no matter the intensity. I prefer heavy snow, but who doesn't? If that's a way we can score 1-3" FLUFFY inches, then so be it in my book.

Just wanted to pop in and say thanks for all on a fairly tame and easy read to catch up on 12z guidance. I’m basically still half asleep, but I got up briefly and couldn’t go right back for Zzzz’s, so I read the boards. I’ll post some thoughts during my night shift. Pretty excited about the trends. Hopefully keep the ball rolling through tonight. Enjpy y’all

Dogfish Head Roadtrip this weekend? Also, guess who just happens to be coming home Jan 27th until Feb 5th

That 06z GFS was a MASSIVE step in the right direction. If you go to pivotal and look at the model trend for the 2PVU Pressure, it is very close to what happened on that magical 18z Saturday run. The shifts are stark, there is no denying it.

If the ICON was right in that presentation, you'd need to go on Anthem of the Seas to see any snow. That ridge is way too far east west of the Continental Divide

It's definitely closer than prior runs, which I think is a positive step with still some time left to mediate the smaller shifts into something more respectable. One thing I do like is the prospects of a little snowfall prior to the SLP generation with a bit of a diffluent signature prior to the mean trough pivoting eastward. I think that could still give a touch of snow to the area regardless of the coastal outcome. An earlier neutral/neg tilt would only enhance the pre-game component. Something to monitor in the grand scheme of it all.

Ridge out west has more amplitude as well, so the s/w trough digging through the plains should have a deeper meridional component. It's certainly not a terrible run so far.

Night shifter here back from the dead. After looking at things, I want to remind those that want to be out that you should still be in as the trends are more in and less out, but that doesn't mean we are in in, but less out than we were in last time we were out. You catch my drift?

So, basically every snow map so far this year?

NS dominant disturbance that favors a Miller B outcome, or a hybrid of sorts. We can get them, but typically that is a New England favored generation. There's a modest s/w over the south that could be involved as well, but the main player is a strong s/w exiting out of Central Canada and driving south with a pinch and close south of our lat with a SLP generation over a favored baroclinic ribbon along the east coast. Not enough dig, late close off, late phase with the southern stream, etc would all cause it to fail or hook and miss. The fact the s/w digs like it does provides the opportunity, but it's still not a climo norm. Pattern does favor some latitudinal premise in a s/w digging, but timing is everything.

Anyone that thinks a potential storm is solved at Day 7/8 is absolutely out of their ever loving mind. Is it climo favored for us? NO Is it dead in the water? Also NO Anyone who does this every single day with the lamenting on a run by run basis needs therapy or to move to NNE. This is the Mid Atlantic. Our storms don't usually show up until 4 day leads to begin with.