MillvilleWx

Looks like we had about 1-1.5" according to local spotters. We had 1.1" on the deck. Stuff was super fluffy, so accumulated nicely. It's gonna feel like winter the next few days!

Thanks! It was super peaceful last night watching it fall while I hung out with my wife and her family. Fire was roaring and good conversation. It was really all I was asking for. I'll see more big snowstorms in my lifetime, no doubt

A bit more than a inch here in Northern MoCo (Laytonsville, MD). 1.1” total for the storm. It’s pretty out

8” now at SBY from a trained spotter. They’ll get to 10” from this. The coast got smoked overnight. Southern DE gonna be in the double digits I feel.

The coast from OCMD to Rehoboth is going to get absolutely smoked. My god. A CLASSIC depiction on radar for a drubbing. Anyone down there will enjoy every second. Get the coffee pot brewing. It’s going to be a fun night down there.

Persistent light snow for hours. Chilling with my wife on the couch next to a warm fire back in MD. Life is good y’all

Right on the money. Would love to have a little surprise west of the bay. Kind of had a bit back in 2010 with the storm that walloped OCMD. Could be something similar if everything breaks right. I do think things will be pretty uniform 1-3” west of 95, but I honestly think there could be a couple surprises for areas east of the fall line. One can hope. Looking forward to the snow coming back for the area in the next 2-4 hrs.

I think the totals and everything will be in line with the current forecast. I think the feeling of, “Freezing your ass off” will be coming into play mightily tomorrow. People are gonna not want to go outside with those wind chills. Ooof

Slant sticking taken to the next level. We’re proud

We will see. Ascent is certainly great right now over MD and NoVA. We are seeing the radar expansion pretty quickly. We have colder air filtering from the north and mid-level ascent positioned over the area due to a sharpening trough axis upstream. The divergence pattern right now is favoring our area into VA. Expect the radar to billow up over the next several hrs. The key is getting into the banding features that are developing. Get into those for a few hrs and you can get an inch or two if you are fortunate. HRRR is struggling and so is the RAP. Could be a little surprise. It’s not gonna be warning level for this area. Advisory snowfall is looking good though. Enjoy the beautiful flakes. It’s gonna be a pretty snowfall and great for flake pictures

Light snow in northern MoCo. Big beautiful fluffy dendrites. It is super pretty. I could watch it all day. I am happy

Good luck to all in here today. So far nothing in northern MoCo. Hopefully get an inch or so later. Eastern shore still looks good a warning level event. Coastal areas will see blizzard conditions. Current call is 10-15" for OCMD up to Rehoboth. Hope to see pics and videos from there tonight. Enjoy y'all

I’m just happy to see the early show is improving. Hopefully that trend holds weight. Will be a pretty sight with all the dendrites. On that note, I’ve been up for officially 24 hrs. I can’t do this any longer tonight. Heading to sleep. I’ll post some thoughts tomorrow morning. Goodnight y’all. Let’s bring in a little snow tomorrow

I will be in MD by 230 PM today! My flight leaves out of MAF at 825 AM CST and then Dallas at 10 AM CST or so. It'll be good to be back in the homeland

She's a great meteorologist and is very careful with these kinds of setups. Has been in the past, which is very smart for around here. She did pretty well with the past few storms, so I'm sure she'll have a pretty good call by tomorrow AM. That's probably when everyone will have to put up or shut up down here haha Look forward to watching her on the news, live!

This is a solid forecast right now given all the variables at play. You can always adjust up if need be at these lengths. The 6+ down there on the Lower ES is pretty set in stone right now. Even the eastern most members in the data are at or above warning criteria down yonder. Hopefully we can get the western edge to work out! I'd love to see at least 2" of fluff in northern MoCo

The summary by Mount Holly really said pretty much anything I could ever add to this situation. The handling of each piece is so intricate that even a shift of 50 miles or timing of each feature off by hrs can add magnitudes of variability in the forecast after 00z Saturday. I think models are having a better time with the overall SLP generation on initial positioning down off the SC/GA coast, but the variability comes in with the motion to the north, especially once east of HSE. Pending the overall sharpness and negative tilt of the trough, fluctuations can occur that will have major implications on the expansion of the shield to the west. A strengthening mid-level jet max rolling around the base of the trough will aim towards the Tidewater of VA into the Lower MD Eastern Shore. Even with the GFS eastern bias, the mean right now for the Lower ES is still pretty positive for a warning level event, so the prospects of a warning are probably tied at least 80%, which jives with the NWS Winter Severity Index that updated this AM. My current thinking is above from my previous post, but I'll go ahead and quote tweet it here for people to see. I actually have UA balloon duty this AM and then I leave at 6 AM to pick up my wife to head to the airport to start vacation. I'll try to have more thoughts later today on everything after getting some time to diagnose model guidance through the 12z suite.

I think that's a solid starting point given all the variables at play. Gun to head right now, I'd probably roll with 5-9" at your place, 7-12" at SBY and 8-14" with local 18" on the coast from Fenwick to Rehoboth. I think the western edge will be super sharp with a gradient of 1-3" for FDK to the fall line, 2-4" along I-95 with 3-6" for each shore of the Chesapeake. I'm concerned about areas NW of the fall line because of the southern trend of the PVA max for Fri. If that doesn't materialize to the north, some places may get totally skunked. Man, if only we had a little blocking. Woof

The Euro 5H representation would not get in done for west of the bay, that's for sure. The thing bothering me right now is the Fri vort is now mostly to the south, which would pretty much kill any chance of snow greater than 1" for west of the fall line. Eastern shore still well in play for the coastal, so I'd still be pretty interested if I lived on the other side of the bay, especially the coastal plain. I still like the shore to get blitzed with this setup. Just a hunch. I just hope to see a little bit of snow when I come home. All I'm asking for

If I was working at Upton, I'd be pulling my hair out right now. I think eastern LI is game for a crushing multiple ways, but the metro corridor is a nightmare. No envy over here for them. Agreed with the boom/bust for here. East of the Bay is probably 8-12" with local 15" for CAPE's hood and the coast is legit ridiculous all out blizzard. I'm not kidding when I say a place like Rehoboth could see their all time greatest snowfall with this storm. They BARELY missed with the 2018 bomb in early January. My parents had 15-20" with 4' drifts in Millville just off the coast and they didn't even get the deformation band as it sat 2 miles off the coast. Some parts of coastal southern Jersey hit like 27" cuz they got hit by it for 3 hrs. This storm could easily crush the DE beach towns. I wish I could make a road trip lol

Euro would promote some pretty nice dendritic growth for areas along and east of I-95. 850-600mb temp profile is between -10 to -17C for the coastal portion of the storm with ascent focused on the western flank of the 5H low as it passes overhead, then strengthens once over the mouth of the bay. It would be a nice snow storm for many, with even the areas NW of 95 seeing some nice light to occasionally moderate snow during the overnight period into Saturday. I'd take that all day long

Very much my current thinking, so thank you for putting this up. Pete is my buddy from college, and we've chatted briefly last few days. His thinking and mine jive pretty well right now, as does yours now that it is written out. It's a setup where the boom/bust potential is high for basically everywhere, but the boom west of the Bay was likely something like the 18z NAM and 12z Euro. The phasing is too late for a coastal hugger, but a great timed phased can still put the western edge of the qpf square over our areas. Axis of deformation is still an eastern shore deal as the 7H low tracks off to the SE of the 95 corridor. I still think the end result is warnings east side of the bay and advisories to the west. I hope the 06z NAM is wrong with the 5H vort passage Friday as that would be pretty awful. That little feature is basically I'm asking for at this juncture. Nice big fatties falling to set the mood while my wife and I are on our first full day of vacay with family. Would be pretty awesome.

At least we don't have to worry about the angle of the cold this time

High probability that is a lot of NBM with some minor finessing this far out. It'll see a lot of updates in the next few days.

That run was actually how the area west of I-95 gets nothing. The vort pass was to the south and MD gets skipped over until you get east of the fall line. Eastern shore still does okay I see and the coast gets whacked. I see there's a trend who the winner in the setup will be. Coastal plain looks to get clocked.