MillvilleWx

This storm is as healthy as its ever been in its life cycle. Good lord

No doubt about that. Their house is built to withstand Cat 5, so not concerned about that part. But what the wind blows into it is a whole other story. Flooding will def be terrible

Excellent write-up @Terpeast I'll be following along this winter on this cause-effect regime possibility

Posted this in the Mid Atlantic Thread: They moved in back in early May after getting it built near Lakewood Ranch. Tough intro to living down their permanently. Hopefully everything is okay when they get back. I've been working midnight shifts and keeping tabs on the storm. I was staying in touch with @WxWatcher007during his excursion to Nova Scotia earlier in my string of shifts. Glad everything went well there. Now for round two with Ian. Can someone turn off the Tropics please.....

Well, it finally happened. My parents moved into their new home near Sarasota (15 miles inland) and will be evacuating tomorrow to Ft Lauderdale. Looks like they will take a hit head on for their area. Their house is a fortress, so not too concerned about its integrity, but it'll certainly be an unwelcomed present.

Hello gang! Long time no talk. Hopefully everyone is doing well back east. I am currently staying as cool as I can in the eternal oven that is Texas. I wanted to drop in and say hello, and let y'all know I have some applications submitted to jobs back closer to home (All east of the Mississippi at least). Fingers crossed I'm back closer to where I want to be! Have a great rest of the summer and let's get to fall!

Man, I am just now checking in on this event for back home. I'm glad everyone is safe, but losing power in the summer sucks and all the tree damage is depressing. I was on the road traveling back to TX from Nashville this weekend, so I had no clue until my friend at home texted me. Saw the radar images and they are pretty astounding for back east. Definitely one to remember.

Yuppppppp. All of the above

You are going to ruin @mappy day in under 1 hour today. Might be a new record. Yikes

DONT...........

That was the most annoying news to wake up to on mids. Seriously

Haven't had time to really look at things up until recently due to a multitude of reasons. Taking a peek at things, here's my one and only call for the storm. Hopefully you guys get a nice pasting tomorrow. I'll check in later in the day after I'm done sleeping. Currently on mid shifts. Enjoy the snow y'all Snowfall Forecast 1-3" for the metros 2-4" for the nearby burbs 4-6" for northern MoCo/Western HoCo up through Carroll County into the Hereford Zone of Balt Co (Areas below 700') 2-5" for rest of HoCo up through southern half of Balt Co 5-8" for areas over 700' along Parrs Ridge including Damascus/Mt Airy/Manchester. 4-7" for all of Frederick/Washington Counties 4-6" for Loudoun Co 2-4" for Fairfax Co 2-4" Northern Harford Co 1-3" Southern Harford Co 3-6" for Winchester up through the WV Panhandle. Iso to 7" on higher ridges

Probably a bit underdone I would think. Height falls are solid and the thicknesses are ~510dm, which is a good airmass for at least teens in the AM and low 30s for the PM. This time of year you have a bit more variance in temps due to increased sun angle, but it shouldn't make too significant of a difference in the grand scheme. MEX for FDK is 21 on Sunday AM, so I think a few degrees cooler into the teens would be suitable. Highs around 35-38 for Central MD. Considering the flow veering to the E/SE, that could happen. Progressive pattern

That cold shot this weekend for you guys is going to be no joke. One of the better airmasses of the season for the OH and TN Valley areas. Considering the time of year, it's definitely pretty robust

These storms will scream meh on radar for severe purposes, but the winds could def materialize here. Enjoy the token Slight in March!

Would absolutely love to chat at some point about all this! I have a lot of feedback to give for even my area of the country and how it fares. Perhaps a virtual meetup with a cocktail is in order? Feel free to PM me!

What you said! Haha NBM is very intuitive and has so many parts, but it is a great tool to use on certain setups, and ice is actually not bad for a general storm sense since it drowns out the noise from the extreme members that could skew means considerably. I will saw it is not the best when it comes to extreme temp variations compared to climo and larger impact events that have a mesoscale foot print like a major snow/ice event or severe out break. They can give an idea of what could occur in a smoothed sense, but knowing your biases can help formulate a better forecast. That is awesome that you have worked with the Blend. I would love to hear more of the nitty gritty with NBM as I've used it for forecast purposes now for almost 4 years.

It's actually a blend of of over 30 pieces of guidance both raw and bias corrected. There's a huge mix of guidance, some of which public doesn't have access to, and some that you do. Off the top of my head, I can name 15 or so, but there's a ton of others. Sorry I can't give the full details on the matter.

NBM at 18z continues to target the northern tier with some ice accretion beginning Thursday night into early Friday before exiting out between 10-12z. A solid advisory type event possible with the current numbers with some sleet also in the mix. Still intriguing to see the totals being spit out by the blend. Even if 75%, it would certainly be a headache for any commute on Friday AM. I would plan ahead if I lived north of I-70, especially away from the Baltimore Metro.

This is the current CIPS Analog guidance with probability of ZR exceeding 3+ hrs within the domain inside a 48hr period. This is centered at 00z Friday, so there's a pretty solid signal for some ZR over areas north of I-70 as shown just using CIPS guidance.

One of the trends I'm noticing in the area of ice accretion is the NBM coming around now to a more pronounced icing scenario compared to its previous runs. NBM is no where near perfect, but it does take into consideration a lot of different guidance and uses a blend of the data to calculate final ensemble means. It also utilizes FRAM Ice accretion numbers, which is more of a true ice measurement process based on a complex algorithm developed by a myriad of meteorologists and data scientists using both a data driven and physical attribution of ice processes that create the overall environment necessary for ice to accumulate. Long story short, it is immensely more accurate a better measure for overall risk assessment and forecasts within operation settings. NBM likely to exhibit a bit of a warm bias given the overall setup and how it underplays the depth of the surface cold layer due to raw data inputs that can skew a mean upward. So, when the NBM is harping at ice accretion within the realm of being more impactful, one has to take notice. Here's the latest NBM forecast signaling the potential at these leads. It will be something to monitor, and I'll update the forum, when I can on these numbers since FRAM is only accessed through internal collaboration and NBM internal products, or a paid site like Pivotal Weather. This is more significant compared to the previous runs with totals approaching the 0.1" over the M/D and even getting into the outer burbs of the Balt/DC corridor. I know I have not been high on this event given my lack of posting (Also been crazy busy out here!), but there's a chance for a modest impact event that would certainly throw a monkey wrench on the Friday AM commute. Definitely one to keep tabs on, especially north of I-70 and the Parrs ridge front into Western HoCo and MoCo.

This is definitely turning to a more northern tier event with Western MD involved, perhaps. I think this is PA/NYS storm by the looks of it. CIPS Analogs is pretty meager for south of the M/D, and there's lots of events that are similar in evolution in the past with good scoring on 5H/7H/85H height fields. Unless we see an abrupt shift with the SLP depiction further south or the blocking up north is stronger, likely going to trend a minor to nada for most of the sub-forum. That's just from everything I've looked at recently.

That's one way to get your adrenaline pumping. Ooof

Happy to see most in the forum get some snowfall. Rounds out the football season nicely with some winter feel. Enjoy the day everyone!