MillvilleWx

Thanks! It feels great to be back on the east coast and I get to actually track something for my back yard again I think the trends right now are positive for the LSV and south-central PA area. I would imagine the favorable spots along the Mason Dixon up to the turnpike are in a good area for the time being. Too early to talk totals, but the key will be the storm not going too far south and the confluence to the north doesn’t thwart latitude gain. Analogs right now are pretty solid for the region, so I like where you guys sit at this point. I’ll come by and add some insight as we approach. Perhaps a snow map is in order!! Been awhile since I did one for the subforum.

Howdy everyone

NBM continues to be impressive at leads with the mean QPF and snowfall forecast. Odds are increasing of 1-1.5” QPF during the time frame of the storm, so you can deduce some average ratios of 7-8:1 to as high as 12-14:1 during the storm height within any banding. A pretty good indication of 6-10+” is on the table if all things break correctly. In-situ cold will be great leading in with drier dew points. That should aid in wet bulbing on the initial surge of low-mid level moisture that’s accustomed to these events. Good trends overall.

Good seeing you in the sub Andy! Hope all is well down in Norman. If you ever want to take the NWS route, feel free to reach out. Hopefully the southern stream can give you guys some fun later this month through winter.

Synoptically, that was a solid run overall. ECMWF is too warm with the thermals in the boundary layer. In fact, it has heavy snow within a deformation band over FDK into central PA with temps at 34F. That's not happening in this setup. Takes the thermals with a grain of salt. UL progression was still good and is well within the envelope of potential outcomes. Fall line and west are still favored and those east and south need to temper expectations. This is a classic storm with those caveats. The CAD is there, but this isn't an arctic driller.

Ahhh. Gotcha! Happens to the best of us. Could be worse. Imagine seeing it while submitting your discussion at work

I can't see the image

This was what I wanted to see. A better in-situ signature on the lead will work wonders for the initial precip, as well as maintaining a decent PBL profile during any storm height. There's some serious members too on that high. Saw some 1035mb or so readings when looking at the member plots. Great to see.

You sure about that? The mean at 85H during storm height is -2 with 10th percentile at -4C and 90th at 1C. It was actually a nice showing imo.

Canadian is just another solution within the margin of error. It was the snowiest for a succession of runs and now it flips. I'm still in ensemble mode and will be curious to see where the means come in. A storm is 100% in the works, just a matter of how the upper pattern evolves with translation at the surface. Finer details will not be hashed for several more days yet. Everyone should just take the deterministic as a viable solution within the margin.

I was noticing that too. The energy is sort of left behind over the OH Valley and it allows the storm to not gain as much latitude. Could very well be noise in this type of setup. What I liked was the persistence of the high over the top and the energy cutting underneath. A little more phasing would've basically produced the ICON simulation. Not a terrible run and actually kind of where you would want to see it in the medium range. GEFS should be pretty

Saw that as well. I have to stay up that night to prep for night shifts. I might go for a little drive out west to see some flakes and keep me awake.

US 15 corridor on west is in a solid spot right now, so I wouldn't be too concerned. I'm off Wormans Mill on a hill there, so I am currently looking at probably teleworking my night shifts if this pans out.

Yeah. He’s okay I guess In complete agreement with @wxmvpete I mentioned earlier today that we haven’t sorted out many of the minor details within the mid and upper pattern leading in. There’s feedback mechanisms that will lead to the storm potential and those will take time to solve. This doesn’t even account for minute details of the thermals once we get closer, so long as there’s a storm to follow for our area. Complexities abound. Just remember, it’s still a ways before the impact time frame. Relax, follow along, and don’t live with each model run. We have a long way to go

Honestly don't have words for this offense right now. Just insane

It's a wonder more of you aren't true alcoholics watching models at D7 and basing your emotions for each run. We likely haven't even seen the expected solution yet. Ensembles and cluster analysis are best at this range. All options are on the table. Lean storm coming north compared to being squashed due to lack of blocking and weak confluence to the north, but also don't think everyone in the sub will get skunked. If you're along or southeast of the fall line, I'd temper your expectations on this one. This is likely not a classic 95 setup. We are lacking a true antecedent airmass or drilling high. If that changes, then game on, but not the most likely solution at this juncture. I'm curious to see the GEFS for this one.

One of my top 3 favorite storms of all time. This solidified my goal to become a meteorologist as I was thinking about college applications

It's part of the equation. There's a lot of spread in the ensembles with that western system, so that will be another piece to keep an eye on in the coming days

The 5H vort panels tell the story with the differences in both the GFS and ECMWF. The difference in the handling of the northern stream is vastly different between each model, thus the outcome on guidance is different. GFS has much more interaction between the northern and southern stream where as the Euro is completely disconnected from the two leading to any surface reflection unable to gain any latitude. Will be interesting to see how it all evolves over the next week. I'll be monitoring, but I won't put too much time into it at this lead.

Pretty quiet across the CONUS at this point, so the ERO desk is fairly tame. Decided to dig in a little for our threat on the 7th since it's probably the best game in town for the next 7-10 days. Latest NBM was encouraging as the trend for more precip within the mean and within the bounds of the 25th-75th percentile have increased incrementally from run-to-run. Mean QPF now within that time frame is up to 0.30-0.40 across much of the sub-forum with more located over the high country of WV and western MD. The most promising signal was the increase in PoPs for the time frame of the 7th. We've seen PoPs jump from 0-10% at best for much of the area to now into the 20-30% range which is a sizeable jump in less than 24 hrs. One of the reasons I've noticed is likely due to the increasing signal of a better mean height field within that Day 7-9 period where probabilities for heights between 538-546 have improved a bit underneath us which implies more amplitude in the trough being seeing within the ensembles (Grand Ensemble includes ECENS/GEFS/GEPS combo). Cluster analysis from the latest run indicates one camp now coming into play with a deeper 5H trough east of the Mississippi allowing for greater diffluent potential downstream within our neck of the woods. The strength of the mid-level short digging into the Midwest will be important as others have alluded to, and there's some support for that growing within the ensemble suite which likely caused the positive feedback in greater mean QPF forecasted within the NBM. It's a delicate setup considering we don't have a solid arctic airmass to work with, but the temperature profile this time of year doesn't need major anomalies to help us score something in a favor mid-level evolution. I'm lean no on anything major unless we see a greater meridional look within the longwave pattern, but a small event to get many on the board is not dead by any means and actually has some favor within a cluster of ensemble members across globals.

Great post. I mentioned the other day that winter was really just getting started and the best time is still a month away. When you have all the cold on one side of the pole and the other side is above normal and limited snow/ice cover, need some time for the airmasses to do away with the warmth and establish itself better. I like end of Jan through Feb as the best time with March a question mark, but by no means out of it that month either. I know some here want snow on the ground that will last a long time, but truth of the matter is...unless we get a huge snow, likely not going to be the case this year. This is typical around here anyway, so I'm not exactly upset. I just want to see snow fall and accumulate. If you were looking for a long winter feel, very likely not happening this year.

FYP

I know this is late, but I hope everyone that celebrates had a very Merry Christmas. We surprised my folks at my sisters place this morning as they were not expecting up. Getting up at 5am and driving all the way to NW of Philly from Frederick was worth every mile and second of travel. Was a great day

Personally I’m going full Jobu and sacrificing a bucket of fried chicken for the storm as we speak…

Thank God I can watch the Vikings game on Fox. I couldn’t bear to watch that debacle