MillvilleWx

RAP/HRRR bias at this range is too heavy with precip and will adjust. However, this is a fairly dynamic event, so it might not be THAT far off. This is a tightrope forecast. There will be winners and losers within close proxy of each other. The higher your elevation, the better. Especially if you have latitude.

I think flakes will fly, but not really amount to much. I think the max is 1-2” if literally everything broke right. This is more for MD and points and north

My thought is to prepare for potential snowstorm across Cecil county and points northeast. It’ll be a heavy wet snow and accumulate on elevated surfaces first. It could be tricky travel tomorrow morning and afternoon. The trend is undeniable at this point. Utilize mesos now and ensemble based products

That would be some serious mashed potatoes if that verified. Huge flakes

Someone is going to get hit pretty solidly tomorrow morning. My guess is elevation areas above 500’ will be the primary with NE MD in a good spot given the expected track of the 7H/85H lows on mesos. I feel FDK will get snow and it could be heavy for a short time, but too warm initially to be part of the major accumulations. Parrs Ridge down through MoCo could snag some accums as well, but I still like I-70 north with elevation to be the winners. This is a tricky storm for guidance due to the convective initiation and spatial resolve across the south. I’ve been peeking at this potential all week and figured we’d have a surprise in store somewhere. Didn’t think we’d be in the game, if I’m being completely honest. I thought NYC could luck into it. Maybe some of us can as well. Will be interesting to track. If only we were 2-3° colder leading in…

I really like the period from the last full week of Feb through mid-March. We’ve scored in that time frame before. I think expectations for the lowlands should be tempered (I know you know lol), but the climo favored areas with elevation and/or latitude should be keen on watching what’s coming down the pike.

I’m still not sold on this event for anyone south of I-70 and realistically any appreciable snow south of the M/D. Sure we can luck into something, but I like the PA Turnpike and points north for this one right now. I think WSW will be relegated to north of the subforum. This is not a setup that favors us in a climo sense. If we had anything resembling cold air in here prior, we’d be game on, but man…if only

I’ll be following for the VDay event, but we need the stars to align. Not out of the realm of possibility for sure, but thermals will be a problem. Just no significant cold air to work with. The pattern afterwards though

I feel the Northeast/Mid Atlantic from central VA up to Boston gets one solid snowstorm, but the question is who gets the best. ENSO signals the Mid Atlantic, and the pattern may be favorable into March. Some of the best storms are in mid-late Feb and March all-time, so I wouldn't be discounting a late season shelling. I just want to see it snow. Staying power is the least of my worries at this point. Feb 2006 was a shelling with drippage by 10am and I still love the hell out of that system. I like watching it snow and rack up, but staying power later in the season is the least of my wants.

Burnes trade was a great addition. Looking at the peripherals, in his "off" year, Corbin still put up a solid 3.32 ERA and his H/9 was equal to his Cy Young year a few years ago at 6.6 H/9. His biggest outlier was the BB/9 which jumped from 1.8 -> 2.3 -> 3.1 from 2021 (CY) to 2023. That's a stark rise and I think some of it has to do with usage early in career and resorting back to his mechanics of old prior to 2021. I think the coaches can right the ship and get him back to where he needs to be. He decreases the walks, he'll be a major player for us in competing for the next few years, minimum.

You know. I was wondering if that was you, Mike! Haha

I want to add that I think this COULD impact part of the subforum in some way. By no means am I writing it off and will follow intently leading into anything down the road.

I mentioned a few days ago how that SS wave was juiced and just needed some interaction with the NS vorticity maxima rotating into the CONUS. Timing of these is everything. It’s very hard to get these right for our prospects. You need the stars to align enough to get some impacts and perfectly to get the upper echelon results. I still feel in the margins this misses, but it’ll be tight in the end. I do like seeing the guidance ease its way back into a favorable pattern in February. This is Niño climo, so hopefully it’s a sign of things to come. I certainly haven’t thrown in the towel.

Thoughts on the Ravens game… Ravens game plan heading into the game was incorrect and definitely got this team off to a sluggish start. They played a mix of man and intermediate zone and allowed the Chiefs to find soft spots in the middle of the field, as well as allowing distance off coverage so short 4-5 yard gains were easy to come by. Good adjustment by them at halftime where they disguised blitzes and played strict man to prevent soft spots from being exposed. Problem was their first half was terrible and they caused their own issue of being on the field for way too long. That was killer, but self inflicted. Offense was a different story and one that has rang true for too many seasons, even going all the way back to the mid-2000s…cost us the game the entire time. Play calling was bad. They were bringing blitzes from multiple packages and played two deep safety for a good chunk of the game. This SHOULD be a chance to emphasize crossing patterns, screens, and slant routes…but they just hardly ever did that. They kept running intermediate and deep and it was like the Texans first half all over again. Don’t get me started on rushing the ball 8 times with RBs. That’s coaching and it’s one of the things I hate about Harbaugh and why I think we need a change. It’s inexcusable. Lamar I thought played an okay game. Made some huge throws and if it wasn’t for his playmaking ability, we wouldn’t have scored anything. The offensive line was battered at times by Chris Jones, and off the edge early on until the DE went out and that gave Lamar some more breathing room. Zay taunt and fumble is full on rookie coming out at the very worst time. Biggest question marks will be McDonald coming back and signing Queen or Matabeuke. This is a team game. They lost this as a team, but a lot of the blame goes to coaching and horrible pre-game planning and terrible offensive playcalling for 2/3 of the game. We can certainly make it back. Lamar will be fine and hungry as ever. Yes, he made some mistakes, but he was the main reason we had ANY chance in this game. If Zay scores a TD, I guarentee you this conversation isn’t happening. Chiefs have been here before and it showed. They know how to handle the pressure and they have the best playcallers and game planners in history (Reid and Spags).

Defense needs MAJOR adjustments as well. The zone coverage game plan is one of the worst things we could've ever done. Not be out-done by the worst thing in letting Kelce go one on one with people. You have to bracket him. That's how New England beat them multiple times in the past. It was truly a horrible game plan out the gate and we lost our composure. KC knows how to win and they get under teams skin. You just have to let it go.

If this O-line keeps playing like it is, Clorox

That's Andy Reid for you

1.35" for the storm total Nice soaker to keep the wet conditions rolling.

That southern stream wave is juiced. Any appreciable phasing would make this a significant event somewhere east of the Appalachian front. Going to be a tight case, but the bigger events are always about timing. CMC shows a path to victory. GFS still disconnected, but that southern wave is a beast.

It's disgusting out. I woke up in Biloxi, MD

40F at my place, 56F near Mt Airy, 45-50F along 32, and a general upper 40s in the beltway. That higher elevation stretch on 70 was wild

40° at my place this morning. Let’s see how high we can climb on my commute out of the valley. Stay tuned.

It's very worth adding to your arsenal. It's one of my main tabs even while I'm on shift. A great tool

Low of 25 this morning. Snowpack holding tough around 4-5", but expecting that to take a beating the next few days. There will not be much left after Friday.