MillvilleWx

Good catch! I thought I might have forgot a year. 2/13 years with normal or above snow from 1980-1993. Brutal Then....1993-1994, 1995-1996, 1999-2000, 2002-2003, 2005-2006, 2009-10, 2010-11, 2013-14, 2014-15, 2015-16 All of these winters were very close to normal or above normal for the metro areas and some places saw considerably more. That's a crazy run of good fortune for this area. Resorting back to the mean. 60s and 70s were great, 80s and early 90s stunk, 50s stunk overall too. Nature of the beast. We'll have another storm run at some point.

They can absolutely still get it in February. The lack of snow right now is in part to a really terrible string of QBO/MJO/PDO luck. We've been in a trifecta of pure puke when it comes to a relatively good pattern and that had major feedback on other indices as well. We've really only been in it for 8-9 years too, so we might have more to go. This was pretty much the case in the 80s into the early 90s too. We didn't have too many snowy winters that run, outside like '83 where one storm really made all the difference. PDO is a bear because it can last so damn long. Just have to let it play out.

We had one as our DC last year in Mike McDonald. Better situational coach that is proving his worth on a Seahawks team that he inherited with a mess of a roster, especially on the O-line and defense as a whole. Harbaugh's teams recently have been prone to penalties and the lack of vision on the most critical pieces of a team build nowadays (DE and Interior OL) during the offseason have been detrimental to team postseason success. Let's not forget his propensity to have some seriously critical shifts in game plans vs certain teams that seem to plague this team every year. He is out coached by Andy Reid every time, he is out coached by Tomlin pretty much every time these days, and he struggles to get this team to make changes against squads when key injuries affect the other side. I had a friend of mine texting me yesterday asking why the Ravens weren't taking advantage of their safety being hurt in the game? Also, Mitchell for Philly was out for a time and we never once picked on his replacement who is subpar. Just lack of awareness of what is going on during a game. Throw in some insanely questionable challenges the past 4 years that were never going to be overturned at any point (Harbaugh has lowest challenge win % of any NFL coach the past 5 seasons) and you have reason that his best years are behind him. Lamar saved his job in 2018 and he's been riding that wave of Lamar's talent ever since. He was a great coach in his early days, but that was a different era. If you don't adapt to the game, the game leaves you behind. I like Monken as our OC overall, but he also has had some questionable play calling situations in games. Henry needs to get 25+ touches/game from now on. This is his time to shine. We did a bit better getting him the ball yesterday with 21 touches, but he was over 4 yards/carry for much of the game and we still went pass happy. Lamar also has had his share of struggles with mental mistakes and beating himself up after bad throws and such. He gets way too emotional sometimes. He has to just move on to the next play. When he starts taking his helmet off on the sideline and pouting or showing anger at himself, it's never a good omen for later in the game. Talent through the roof, but still needs to get over the hump vs very difficult defenses/schemes. That's my 2cents on the matter which are worth probably less considering I'm just a fan, but I've watched a ton of football and these are my observations.

This ^ So much of this is terrible coaching. We have an amazing roster and put up these pathetic performances too often. It all starts with the HC. Also hate to be this guy, but Lamar vs these high level defenses is pretty much historically relevant at this point. He missed open targets throwing and just not looking their direction. The Likely miss was probably on Likely himself running an out instead of an out and up given the ball placement. Zay was pissed on the sideline multiple times because he was open and never saw the ball. Lamar is absolutely insane when it comes to talent, but he gets too upset at himself and it costs him focus. He needs to take a chill pill and just move on. Happy with the way the defense played tonight, for the most part. I think they were mentally taxed with everything that unfolded as well with the offense sputtering deep in Eagles territory, and the Tucker misses. Tough loss but have to regroup.

Tucker absolutely killed this teams mojo today. That kind of stuff is not only mentally taxing on a kicker, but the entire team. And since it keeps happening, it’s becoming a chronic concern. Will likely cost us any chance at a deep playoff run and we have no chance of a SB unless he rights the ship in a hurry. Sad to say

This is 100% correct. If you look back at history, our averages are really a major combo of big snowy seasons coupled with doldrums. We don't necessary have a general persistence like some areas of the CONUS have because a lot is contingent on organized SLP's or SWE's since we typically miss out on clippers and anafrontal snowfall like areas north and west of here.

Actually really like this look a lot. We can work with something like this. I just hope people here realize that this will end up being a N/S dominated regime and we'll need energy to dig in order to really get anything substantial. One thing I do think we have in our favor is colder temps will be around more often than not. Then it just comes down to timing something. If we get ANY blocking whatsoever, I would be really excited on the prospects. Fingers crossed!

I upped them a touch after my initial. I think we see a few events for the region and one could be a big one if all things break. I think a colder winter is plausible this go around, but of course moisture and timing will be our biggest hurdles. I think we see plenty of storminess east of the Mississippi, but no blocking will likely cause a lot of failure.

This is likely the story for the entire winter. One of the reasons I'm not bullish on snow for these parts and remained below normal for my forecast. Hopefully we can luck into a really good one. I do think that is on the table this year compared to some of our recent years.

Honestly, this is just a byproduct of only a few teams in the NFL that are really any good anymore. There might be 5 really good head coaches, 20% of players with great to elite talent league wide, and the rest is average to below average, or even trash compared to the previous NFL standards. The league is not nearly as good as it used to be. Add in the horrible rule changes and shifting things like the way the Kickoffs are now and it's not really a great product. NBA the same way with babying players who make considerably more money than they ever did in recent history. I just think we have surpassed the golden era of football and the product will just be watered down. A lot of these breaks the Chiefs are getting are vs bad competition which they seemed to get this year by playing almost no one through 12 games. They aren't as good as recent years when they won, but they still have the best HC in the league and a defensive wizard at DC that will help the team win a lot of games just making great calls and allowing the team the best opportunities to win on a weekly basis. LV are choke artists and have been for years. Expected them to F it up in some way in that last drive. I thought it would come down to an INT, but instead it was a laughable fumble. Sad

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!!

35° at mi casa this morning when I left for work. Actually one of the colder spots on my commute.

Came back home yesterday evening after a long day of travel back from Western KY area. Cut through I-68 in Garrett and saw a beautiful winter landscape. It was really stark the cut off points where the best snow fell. Basically just across the WV line to about Big Savage Mountain was where the snow was still remaining and certainly got the best of Friday. Took some of these pics from the top of the rest area near Keysers Ridge. Gorgeous!!

Those lake effect bands came roaring off the lake and they meant business. Delta T has to be pretty crazy off Erie right now. Easy 1+”/hr stuff earlier. A steady 0.5-1”/hr probably through the remainder of the game. This would’ve been so awesome to experience, so I’m right there with you!

This is legit SN/SN+ for that Cleveland game. Incredible

I told my wife I want to do that at some point this winter for a getaway. I’ll make sure to PM you when the time comes. Would love to come up there and give some small businesses my money.

I’m traveling back home from KY on Saturday. I’ll take some pictures from the landscape out there on my way back. Cutting up 79 to 68 on trek back, so I’ll see it all. Should be a scenic view on that trip back!

It's both nice and horrible outside (I want fall temperatures). Currently 72 here in Edgewater

This is the ML guidance, which is good to see, but not the operational. The trajectory for getting colder end of month has legs, but when and magnitude will be question marks for the next 3-5 days before the guidance gets a better handle on the upper level evolution. Still some moving parts.

If SBY gets shelled like that, I will be visiting my parents at some point at the shore haha

0.17” for the event. Fortunate to have a weather station close by to me (Walking distance) at my new location.

Small revision ^ from previous forecast. Utilizing statistical reasoning for the adjustment based on historical prescedence from Weak La Niña’s in past years. I will say that the pattern will likely be pretty amplified in parts of the winter, especially in the back half of winter with parts of January into February potentially showing more meridional components to the jet. There is always a chance we luck into something big, just not as likely without a buckled jet as the moisture stream from the STJ will be less pronounced given the slightly colder ENSO signal. Always luck involved and I would be glad to be very wrong and we get hammered

DOH Thanks guys. It has been edited.

BWI: 11.4” IAD: 13.8” DCA: 7.1” RIC: 6.8” Tiebreaker (SBY): 5.5” Will revise before end of contest entry period for official. Just off the top of what I’ve parsed through.

Beautiful morning down in Londontowne. Was 39° on the thermometer when I left. Glorious