MillvilleWx

AI has done very well with tropical system steering. Very different storm structure and mechanism for steering, so the jury is still out on mid-latitude cyclones, however there’s a lot of good data on its ability to pinpoint areal QPF coverage and pointing where heavier precip will be located. Not great in magnitude with convective backgrounds, but knowing where is a big plus. Not perfect, but helps with forecasting. Long range beyond D5 for synoptic scale is hit or miss. Something we‘ll be assessing at WPC end of season for verification.

Personal stuff

I stirred the pot with my late note post. Whoops I didn’t mean to cause alarm. I wanted to point out to some who follow that seeing the signals on the ensembles and deterministic for dry cold are on the table and it’s one thing to keep in mind. I also mentioned that I do love what I see in the ensembles. I’ll take my chances with this setup any day. Plus, one of the things that could happen is sneaky snow squall type events with this type of Arctic discharge. There’s a lot to be excited about! I just temper expectations because a failure spot is still on the table. Most here know that, but some might not, so I wanted to make sure the base is covered. Hate to say it, but I’ve become a person whose glass is 3/4 empty these days on a lot of things. Sorry if I came off doom and gloom.

Kevin, just a heads up. The people who work the models are absolutely not completely off for the Holidays and that’s also not how NWP works. Models will work the same year round, regardless of holidays. Data input is not done manually. The team at NCEP are rock stars at making sure data assimilation is working properly and the data gets out to the world.

I'll be straight up with you guys. I am much more afraid of getting stiffed on precipitation than I am with cold for upcoming pattern. This isn't me sounding any alarms on what is being proposed. If you want a chance at snow, this is heading in the right direction. However, there is absolutely a way we get very little snow and a ton of dry cold with the end product. I don't want to see January 1977 show up in the analogs. That would be so depressing to see.

I hope not. What an absolutely brutal stretch. A ton of cold, record cold at that and very little snow to show for it. That would make many here pretty unhappy. I would not want that scenario and that’s sort of what I’m seeing on the GFS. If we miss the boat on the front end of the PV drifting down….I will personally be pretty annoyed and ready for spring.

That period of the 4th through the 12th will need to be monitored super closely. There could be as many as 3 windows of opportunity in that 8-9 day stretch. GFS showed multiple ways to score some winter around these parts and there's more evolutions that would be workable with the progression of the Pacific along with transitory blocking to our northeast. It's a ways away and could very well shift, but the trends are friendly at the moment.

If you look at the soundings, there is zero reason for the precip to be at 0.00 across Central MD. The HRRR looks very similar, same progression, and soundings look identical and it's closer to 0.01-0.1" areawide. No idea what caused that one.

Only snuck to 30° here in the low lands. Already coming down a bit with the sun about to set. Amazing stretch of cold

It’s one of the reasons I don’t say anything unless there is solid evidence to the potential for something. I don’t think people here realize how many storms this area misses compared to hits. I feel like some people think we live in New England. We are the same latitude as Lisbon, Portugal…. We are actually very fortunate we can even get snow here thanks to our proxy to Canada and the bridging from Russia to supply cold air.

Noticed this too when assessing guidance as the 00z comes in. Can't say I hate it. The 6hr precip panels were actually very nice to look at for the period of interest after 1/1. I'm keeping the faith as we turn the calendar forward.

Great post! A lot of people freak out when they hear about the dreaded WAR/SER thinking everything is bad. I actually don't mind some SER influence so long as the thermal gradient lies somewhere south of here, mainly between CVA and SVA. This is one way to score in Ninas and can produce some cold smoke type events that don't necessarily need a bunch of QPF to cash. This season is still not one I'm banking on a big storm just given all that has to go right for it to occur, but we can manage with a variety of setups with this being one of the better ones to chose from for a light to moderate type event.

Happy Anniversary @mappy!!

I’ve been thinking if we get any breaks in the LR pattern for snow potential, it would likely occur during January-March. Still thinking we miss on a big one, but as @psuhoffmannoted, it only takes one stroke of timing luck and we can get the goods. I’m out on anything until after the New Years, but I’ll of course keep peeking at what’s to come.

One of the greatest snowstorms I ever witnessed. Had 4.5”/hr at the height with pure TSSN+ for over a hour. Measured right around 20” in Carney. Randallstown had over 2’ The things I would do for that storm again

I’ll take the under on the 12z GFS outcome of Boxing Day 2: Electric Bugaloo

We'll sit on our hands, do nothing, and not make the playoffs next season and the FO will wonder why

0.89" at mi casa. Currently dancing between 39/40F for the temp. Tomorrow is going to be pretty chilly.

Small update to the forecast. Tonight we'll see some of the steadier rainfall poke into the area pre-dawn with the heaviest occurring late-morning and early afternoon with the setup looking quite heavy along and east of the Bay. One things for sure, we could use the rain, so it'll be a welcomed sight in terms of the drought. If only it was snow....

Nah. Today was supposed to be a glancing blow as the s/w ejected out of the TN Valley and weakened as it moved northeast. Best rains were for Western PA and we get brushed. Best rain for here is Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as the trough goes neutral to negative and we get significant moisture advection and favored ascent within the difluent area downstream of the trough. As the front approaches, we’ll see our heaviest rain given the additional surface based convergence. It’ll be a much needed rain for many in here. MRGL flash flood risk for Wednesday morning as per my overnight forecast.

Looks like Orioles coming in with a bit of an underrated signing here. Tyler O’Neil OF to a 3/$49.5 mil deal. That’s actually not a bad signing, but still not a major splash signing. I like it, but we’ll see how the rest of the off-season progresses.

Warrenton ASOS already down to 12F at the 2AM report. Going to be a lot of low-20s to upper teens readings across the sub-forum. Already have a nice cold pocket over the area NE of DC up through the 295 corridor. 21-23F readings for a long stretch. A premium winter morning on tap

Makes sense. I approximately measured 19” in Carney, but man was it tough. Ended up with 51.5” between the two storms with a 4’ base in my backyard after all said and done. What a run

I remember when I used to have a lot of respect for JB and I learned a ton when he was on Accuweather. Now he’s just a hype artist with a clear agenda. Sad

Interesting. I thought the 80s might have been a bit meh on the snowfall, but it seems like a few years did have some decent snows. 83 and 87 were for sure good years. Surprised at a few of those winters. That late 80s into the early 90s period was pretty terrible, yeesh.