MillvilleWx

DAS!!! Man, between you and @mitchnick here, I'm getting all the nostalgia feels. Hope you are doing well!

Been busy at work so just now getting a chance to assess things. So far there is still significant spread with the handling of the 5H pattern across the North Atlantic with the extension hanging back into the Northeastern U.S. @CAPE pointed out earlier some of the appreciable differences upstairs with a touch more phasing of N/S energy extending back to Canada leading to a stronger axis of confluence and shearing of the primary 5H shortwave progression out of the Mississippi Valley. One positive take from the GFS was a better precip shield developing across the Mid-South, something that had been missing in previous runs. This makes sense considering the stronger closed 5H vorticity and subsequent 500mb LER jet dynamics accompanying the trough. There's likely to be shearing as a result of the cyclonic gyre over the North Atlantic, but we'll have to see if this is a case of Medium Range bias in over amplifying the 5H Relative Vorticity evolution as can be the case within these D4+ leads. I do feel the analysis of the eventual trough in the plains and Tennessee Valley will be solved a little faster given the time frame the energy reaches the CONUS and becomes a factor in cyclogenesis is <72 hrs in progression, so the fact that has trended favorably is a step in the right direction. Deterministic output has been shotgun spray when it comes to the final QPF within that D6-8 time frame as each global displays a different prog meaning there's very much variability in this pattern. These types of setups tend to lean further north due to the bias of over amplification of the downstream 5H evolution noted above, but that doesn't mean that will be the case this time. Ensembles have been pretty useful with regards to the anticipated QPF with the GFS boosting precip within the area over the past 4 runs (See @NorthArlington101 post above) and the other ensembles remains relatively steady with varying QPF magnitudes more noise within the mean. NBM maintains a general 2-4" across much of the sub-forum with the max situated over Central MD back west, a favored climo pattern for storms that run west to east in trajectory. I'm curious to look at the cluster analysis and see what differences within the ensemble members give us the best and worse case scenarios along with which cluster has the highest percentile of probable outcomes. Time will tell and until I see something more concrete in either a great or terrible scenario, I have no strong feelings on what has been shown on todays 12z suite. Just my $0.02

DON'T SAY IT. DON'T SAY IT. DON'T SAY IT. DON'T SAY IT. DON'T SAY IT. DON'T SAY IT. DON'T SAY IT. DON'T SAY IT. DON'T SAY IT. DON'T SAY IT. DON'T SAY IT. DON'T SAY IT. DON'T SAY IT. DON'T SAY IT. DON'T SAY IT.......

It was really chilly in the lowlands of AA this morning. I was around 33F myself with frost on the windshield. Quite pleasant. I love cool/cold mornings

Going to be deep winter out in your parts jonjon. Enjoy, and be sure to post pictures

It's those dynamical features that get overlooked in the grand scheme that end up creating surprises. I pay close attention to those details. Also, the topographic enhancements in these parts that don't get solved or mentioned closer in can have a significant impact on totals. It's why I prefer the short range over long any day of the week

One of the things I like about these setups is that stronger 850-700mb FGEN on the northern periphery of the precip due to that confluent feature over the Northeast. There tends to be multiple banding structures within the FGEN schemes, typically 7H FGEN located north and 85H located a bit further south. We've had cases of this in the past that overperformed, especially within that northern 7H FGEN band. The progression on the ECMWF would be a great start to the winter in these parts. Thermals look great. Strong CAD signature within the boundary layer. I'd sign on the dotted line at this point, but we know that ain't how it works lol

Don't even get me started on that one....

The handling of the 5H vorticity across Canada will be important in the final outcome here as noted by the GFS/ECMWF discrepancies. Until one caves to the other, we will have dueling outcomes. The jury is still out for the setup and bet we haven't seen the final result yet out of any run. One thing that is notable is a majority of the these outcomes, regardless of evolution are yielding some form of snow/winter precip. Always good to have ways to score.

That's one to save for posterity lol

Pretty hard to get the PV displaced over our hood. Can only imagine

That would produce some insane snow squall activity that would impact our area. Idk if I've ever seen the 5H evolve like that before. Kind of wild to see.

Totally get that. I'm hoping he has a long and healthy career. Always loved watching him at LSU. He's a playmaker and proven winner. You guys got a great one!

If he doesn't win OROY, I will absolutely riot. He was incredible this season for a rookie. You guys have a special one in Jayden. I think it's cool that the most dynamic QB's in the NFL both play within 40 miles of each other

I'm going to provide some background on what I mentioned about January. What is being advertised on model guidance is bordering on historical precedence when it comes to the potential Arctic outbreak over the eastern 1/2 of the CONUS. There will likely be several shortwaves migrating through the flow that some sneaky light events could pop up on the proverbial radar that are not yet known, coupled with the more organized storm chances. There will be snow squall type activity that also would be available during the sharper Arctic air intrusions across portions of the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast that will come into picture as we get closer. Strong Arctic boundaries provide modest amounts of instability and one thing we have learned from past cold outbreaks is a fresh injection of Arctic air is usually accompanied by significant low level lapse rates and mid-level ascent that would allow for opportunities of significant squall potential that could reach our latitude. The pattern will be complex in nature. Anytime you get a progressive northern stream involved, it will be tough for NWP to know specifics at range, so tread lightly with absolute declarations 5+ days out. Changes can occur and will likely have shifts to potential organized precip regimes up until game time. We know how it rolls around here. The big dog potential is real....but it is not set in stone. There's opportunity for nothing major in this pattern. Timing of disturbances and the phasing process/potential will be critical for the opportunities over the course of the pattern evolution. Messy phases or off timing could skunk us and leave us cold and dry for a majority of the outbreak. That is something I want to preach to people who are banking on a lot of snow. This is an intricate situation that has high reward AND bust potential in the snow/ice department. The one thing we are gaining a lot of confidence on is the duration of the cold and the sustainability of the pattern being opportunistic for multiple weeks, perhaps lingering into the back half of the month. That's why I say people might not understand the gravity of what is to come. I remain optimistic we will see snow, cautiously optimistic on something significant, and very confident on the duration of the cold. The magnitude of the cold is gaining traction that this will be the coldest spell in terms of both duration and magnitude since the extended cold outbreak of 2017 and potentially on par with some of the better Arctic intrusions the past 30 years. For those that are not super well versed on pattern evolution and NWP breakdowns, I HIGHLY suggest sitting back and taking notes, asking questions, and learning while others more versed interject. I did this for years, including while I was in college studying this stuff and it has paid off dividends. Back to your regularly scheduled programming...

The whole month of January is going to be really wild. Idk if everyone is ready for what's to come.

That storm would be the penultimate blizzard verbatim. That has shades of 1993 written on it. A sharp shortwave dig phases across the SE US and causes the whole 5H axis to go negative east of the Mississippi. I would do unspeakable things for that to occur. Interesting that's a potential evolution in the cards. I'm utilizing the deterministic as an ensemble at this point to gauge potential. There's multiple ways to score in this pattern, but failure is 100% on the table when looking at how the pattern will evolve. I hope we hit on at least one.

Couldn’t even get the rain part

Was 70° at 130PM in Edgewater and then dropped 10° in 5 minutes when the flow shifted off the Bay. Been stuck near 60° since.

I don’t see anything wrong with what’s being advertised on the ensembles. Deterministic will vary next few days before potentially latching onto something. Even then, the 5H evolution can lead to complexities that won’t be solved until closer to game time. We are still 7+ days away from anything appreciable from any system with the evolving pattern. Stuff won’t be rolling until a day or two after New Years. I don’t see much to be alarmed about. If there is one thing we can take away right now is that it’ll feel like deep winter after any snow/ice falls on the following Monday through the foreseeable future. Highly anomalous cold is almost becoming a certainty at this point. I would prepare now and get ahead of everyone else before this area starts to go mad.

The Germans are pretty good at things but they still have some ways before being considered useful in numerical modeling. Has its moments, but not really trustworthy yet when looking at verification.

This is TEXTBOOK right here. My goodness

The ONLY gripe on that, and I mean this is legit the only thing that makes this not perfection is the ridge axis out west is a little west of where perfection lies. Over the Cascades instead of Boise. That’s pretty much it though. That is truly unbelievable to see. It shows the potential of the pattern. Just another iteration of what could be. Just gotta be patient and keep an eye on the overall long wave progression. Fun times ahead tracking this all.

With the advertised cold, he can just keep them out on his balcony.

This is nearing textbook status at this range. Amazing