MillvilleWx

I like the Ferrier for marginal events because it does what you mentioned really well. Wish the SLR wasn't capped at 10:1 since that is for certain going to be too low for the northern crew and even much of the area in the initial bout of precip and with any CCB action. My only gripe! Otherwise, it's great for highlighting areas that could see sleet/ZR. As is, that is very nice for many in here.

This is pretty much textbook for a cross-section of a WAA thump around here. Very strong FGEN signature during a deep moist layer as well. Verbatim, this is how you get 1-2"/hr for several hrs over a large area. Considering the strength of the LLJ at 85H and the RER dynamics at play with the jet streak to our north, there should be a good amount of moisture being advected northeastward ahead of the mean trough. A small window of lighter precip between the primary WAA pattern and the falling heights under the trough traversing eastward out of KY is likely, but that's the $1 million question what will transpire in the 5H progression as they moves south of us. If that can remain closed or at least move through at a slight neutral to negative tilt....then all bets are off on the potential within a maturing CCB. Jury still out there, but beginning to see some convergence on the initial stage of the event. I'm sure the mix line will be a bit north progged, but you never know. The NAM Nest outcome was fairly reasonable in my eyes given the variables at hand. The northern edge will likely sharpen and there will be a 100 mile swath of some significant snowfall across our area. It's just a matter of the latitudinal "goal posts" of where that will be. Fun times!!

Hey guys. No map from me for this one. I’m on night shifts and don’t have too much time to make one. I’m watching Ravens game then heading to work basically right after. I’ll try to make a post on expectations for PA tonight when I have some time.

This is for the lowlands people in AA county and points east…. I kind of like where we are right now for this one. If you are in Annapolis/Edgewater area, we are probably one of the better spots no matter what model you look at. 5-10” seems very likely. We will likely mix with sleet if you are along and south of Rt50, but I don’t see it lasting too long before we flip back.

Alex is a friend of mine and fantastic met. Agreed. I’ve been saying MD32 is probably the furthest north extent of the sleet line, but collapses back as the coastal takes over and the 850-700mb level shifts as the trough swings eastward. Key is the positioning of the 7H and 85F FGEN placement and I feel there will be split maxima with them. Inside the beltway should be good for 5-8” for DC regardless of sleet. I think that’s a fair bar for the area.

I’m hoping it’s earlier as I run the QPF desk tonight again. Pretty delicate situation. I will say one of the best areas right now seems to lie between I-70 and Rt50. Almost any solution throws out WSW criteria snowfall, so I’d feel great if you are between that zone.

I think giving potential for mixing, I’d say your max will be right around that 8” mark. I think 5-8” is right on the money with the current forecast.

I think 4-8” for your hood is a good call based on what we’re seeing.

No problem! I’d say they’ll start having a better idea by tomorrow, but remember the dynamics will be different, so banding and such might take near game time for that feature to get narrowed in. I’m hoping that comes to fruition. That has surprise upside if it comes together properly.

DC seeing snow in the 4th dimension

Oh yeah. I would say 5” at the worst and 10-12” if everything just breaks perfectly. I’d say 6-10” is a great call for your neck of the woods. I’m sure that’s what Sterling and WPC are rolling with as well. The backend fun with the vort pass is going to be the biggest question mark and if that breaks properly, there will be a lot of happy people in here.

Blackwater is absolutely gorgeous. My wife and I’s first ever trip away from the area while we were dating was a hike in mid October to see the foliage in Blackwater. I’m sure it’s pristine in the winter with the blanket of snow cover. Enjoy!

For large scale synoptic events, I start monitoring trends after 24 hrs. It’s bread and butter is inside 12 hrs. Convection is a whole different story, but thankfully this isn’t convectively driven. It’s fun to look at now, but I’m very certain it’ll change. But man would it be sweet if it were right right now…..

Yup! Great call for up there. You guys should have fantastic ratios (11:1 or better) for the entire event. It’s going to be a winter wonderland around the region and I for one am here for it!

I have to come visit your area at some point! I haven’t been to Ski Liberty in like 15-20 years. It’s beautiful up there

I have you and the northern MD crew around 5-9”. You and PSU should be in a good spot for good ratios and a decent band that setups up along the topography. This is usually a good storm for one of those.

I imagine you do well with this setup. Sterling/Ashburn area should stay most, if not all snow. Hopefully the early morning hrs on Monday are nice and thumpy

Ohhhhhh yes. We don’t use the snowfall verbatim, but we do utilize the QPF as a base point and generate our own ratios with the NBM mean Snow Ratio a typical starting point. It’s all about know how to interpret the model and use to your advantage. It’s probability fields are also solid.

I like 4-6” for you with a potential for up to 8”. I think you’ll have some really good ratios to work with most of the storm. 7H FGEN should be best along the M/D with the 85H FGEN further south. Someone in MD/VA/DE is getting 10+ out of this.

The range is the 1st and 3rd quartile (25th and 75th percentile). The mean forecast is the point forecast where you can select it on the LWX Winter page.

It might be tough for CTP but I think LWX is square in the line for a WSW. ECMWF has been a rock recently, and that’s good, but it’s primary ensembles that make up the NBM have this a bit further north. The 3km NAM is a good indication that the EC will likely correct north a bit. I could be wrong and everything shifts south from the CAMs, but it’s tough to deviate hard from the NBM at this range. It’s typically good with the axis of QPF. We’ve seen this type of setup before. A strong 85H LLJ will typically favor a bump north at game time. Something the Nest and some of the other CAMs might be picking up on. We shall see! I do think LWX goes with warnings and CTP will be on the edge for the southern tier of counties.

I’m surprised he doesn’t just post a screenshot of the ECMWF and call it his forecast. Basically what is usually is. Model blend of 90% ECMWF and 10% DT

Fortunately after a watch is issued, warnings are collaborated via office to office and not WPC necessary. We have had some times we were asked to come on in more delicate circumstances for mediation if one office is on the fence or not. Not going to be needed this go around.

Agreed. I feel even a north jog of that run would absolutely smoke DC up through Rt50. Hell, even the Nam Nest was disgusting and it's by far the furthest north. Might actually be reeling this one in, Matt!