MillvilleWx

I told my wife I want to do that at some point this winter for a getaway. I’ll make sure to PM you when the time comes. Would love to come up there and give some small businesses my money.

I’m traveling back home from KY on Saturday. I’ll take some pictures from the landscape out there on my way back. Cutting up 79 to 68 on trek back, so I’ll see it all. Should be a scenic view on that trip back!

It's both nice and horrible outside (I want fall temperatures). Currently 72 here in Edgewater

This is the ML guidance, which is good to see, but not the operational. The trajectory for getting colder end of month has legs, but when and magnitude will be question marks for the next 3-5 days before the guidance gets a better handle on the upper level evolution. Still some moving parts.

If SBY gets shelled like that, I will be visiting my parents at some point at the shore haha

0.17” for the event. Fortunate to have a weather station close by to me (Walking distance) at my new location.

Small revision ^ from previous forecast. Utilizing statistical reasoning for the adjustment based on historical prescedence from Weak La Niña’s in past years. I will say that the pattern will likely be pretty amplified in parts of the winter, especially in the back half of winter with parts of January into February potentially showing more meridional components to the jet. There is always a chance we luck into something big, just not as likely without a buckled jet as the moisture stream from the STJ will be less pronounced given the slightly colder ENSO signal. Always luck involved and I would be glad to be very wrong and we get hammered

DOH Thanks guys. It has been edited.

BWI: 11.4” IAD: 13.8” DCA: 7.1” RIC: 6.8” Tiebreaker (SBY): 5.5” Will revise before end of contest entry period for official. Just off the top of what I’ve parsed through.

Beautiful morning down in Londontowne. Was 39° on the thermometer when I left. Glorious

Love those shots. That’s a nice camera you got there.

Howdy neighbor! We live right along the South River now up in Londontowne. The foliage along shore drive is beautiful. Tonight will likely help change everything that’s hanging on, for good. Solid color this year. Might not be as good as past few years, but certainly not bad.

Track was good until the last day, which unfortunately is the most critical. They made a lot of adjustments till game time, and even then missed the full eastern progression of the cyclone compared to forecast. Messaging otoh was very good as WPC and NHC really wanted to hammer home the highest impacts being flash flooding and major River flood prospects. I worked the lead chair at WPC that week and those were my first with no trainer. Quite a week, but was a great experience. We had a crescendoing message through the week that culminated in Catastrophic, life-threatening language with 24-36 hrs prior to landfall. Unfortunately, that worked out too well

Some of the posts earlier questioning the entire forecast are really abhorant and lack general substance. This storm is going as planned intensity wise with all the different variables discussed with regards to EWRC/Shear/Dry air entrainment all basically going to plan from what models/NHC have been indicating for days. Yes, storms can surprise and deviate from the official forecast, but insinuating it’s off base from the forecast is just unsubstantiated bloviating at this juncture. Milton still has a fairly strong core with a very stout Northeastern Quad that will likely be more resilient to any factors involving dry air entrainment. These storms that have had a well-defined core for long periods of time have historically been able to thwart off rapid weakening attempts unless its protruded by a significant dry air tongue (Irma near Cuba) and/or shear running perpendicular to the storms path. The storm was always expected to weaken today, but the synoptic pattern over the Eastern CONUS will still maintain favorable RER dynamics that will favor wind field expansion and begin the initial stages of some extra-tropical transition with the precip field becoming more asymmetric and focused on the northern half of the circulation. Even if the storm runs down to low-end Cat 3, the amount of IKE that is built up will drive surge throughout much of Western FL with a significant surge progged for the Southeastern Quad of where Milton comes ashore. The angle of attack is such that a prolonged southeast fetch will lead to gradual waves of surge inundation along the coast with a focus likely Fort Meyers up through Tampa Bay. The main wall of surge will be focused towards timing and location of landfall. The track is still within the cone of uncertainty and any adjustments will be made through the course of the day for the LF positioning. For all intents and purposes, this is going according to plan and any significant shifts will be relayed to the public and stakeholders alike.

We very much appreciate Tomer’s work so far at WPC/DTB. He’s a very intelligent person and very friendly. Probably one of the better follows for meteorological knowledge out there. Pretty awesome to have him on our team in some capacity.