Disco-lemonade

yea sorry crashed right when i posted try this one http://surfchex.com/cams/carolina-beach-web-cam/ hopefully the oceanic's cam will be back on soon

Water level at wrightesville beach is getting higher, waves are looking pretty robust. http://surfchex.com/

This may be the nuttiest gfs run I have ever seen

Yea this is bad, and it's not like usual where we get a sheared out destabilized mess. This is something extraordinary

Please refer to the NHC forecast track cone

You're right I've been so concerned about ILM that I haven't really given much consideration to MBY...

Agreed I'm down there every other week, so many great friends in the path of this, has me very worried.

My concern is if this hits cat 4 people aren't going to know what to expect.

I'll tell you, remember hurricane mathew a few years back? I was living in wilminton at the time, only a cat 1 (first hurricane I'd experienced), but when you see long leaf pines bending in ways they shouldnt over someones house, knowing they could snap at any moment will scare the bajeebus outta you. And the noise of it all I'll never forget... Then driving back through lumberton the amount of tree damage was surprising for how far in land they were. Straight line winds can maximize gust potential very quickly.

I agree, Florence may be the sum of all fears... I don't understand those dudes up in maryland rooting for it to go up the Chesapeake, makes me wonder, do they even get it?

Here, go ahead and see what kind of storm surge could be expected from a cat 2 on the outer banks and surrounding locations. http://noaa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=d9ed7904dbec441a9c4dd7b277935fad&entry=1

lol nam qpf is always wrong at this range

rdu will smell the flakes

give people an inch they'll take a yard! their back yard that is

start watching the line of storms just east of the keys this is where the hrrr is beginning to show the low forming we need a dedicated obs thread

people act like the precip maps for the globals are gospel when the hrrr can barely nail down <12hrs

servers are starting to struggle must be from the party theyre having up in the north east forum

hmm id be willing to bet that band headed towards atlanta is going to change to snow soon

NAM is a tiddly bit colder and much slower with the precip

Who knows I'd bet a good few of us will at least see some unexpected flakes, which is more than I got 2011-12 Heres the link http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17&parm=850mb&underlay=0&source=1

All I can say at this point is keep a close eye on that 0c line and your thermometers!

tease tease tease

gfs once again weaker with the gl low