Cold Rain

Haha we'll see....

Reverse psychology?!

Shetley:

GFS FTW!

Why? Lol

Hopefully, it won't trend too far north to dry slot us. Many areas need the rain!

Not a very encouraging set of model runs overnight. Given the tendency of the models to overemphasize blocking and cold anomalies in the medium to LR, anyone in the SE to the east of the Apps should be a bit nervous here. Hopefully, we'll see a couple of upcoming cycles that show the robust cold push coming back and intensified blocking in the NAO region. Otherwise, this will be a marginal event for the northern/NW areas...at best.

Given the atrociousness of the pattern so far, a 10 day snowstorm celebration is more than justified! :thumbsup:

Not till Feb. I heard Jan was done.

We're going for cold rain here, not mild rain!

Figures

So does e26 or whatever it is still have Wake Co. with 36" on the NW side and .2" on the SE Cold Rain side?

Lol it's new here! Only a few of us were over there anyway.

Shetley /Shetley

Lakes Low! HAHAHAHAHAHA! I knew it! Thanks for the map.

Where's the parent high and how strong is it? I'm on mobile today and haven't seen a map showing that yet.

Dang, I forgot my wallet!

I'd like a large order of E5, please. Dining in.

You should come back in Feb and take a huge victory lap...unless you run out of gas on the last lap!

So over the past week or so, we've seen really good model runs for a couple of cycles and then a back-off to a less favorable pattern, followed by a couple of cycles with even better patterns. Each subsequent "back-off" cycle has been less bad and each subsequent "back-on" cycle has shown an even better set of solutions. I'm inclined to give some credence to this, which moves me to believe (i.e. hope) we'll see a back-off that's not so bad through probably 12Z tomorrow, at which point we should start to see some dynamite runs again. I expect today's data to be moderately ok.

But in the pattern thread, things are looking great.

I'd like a large order of E5, please. Dining in.

Look at all that blocking up and down the east coast!

January is done.