Cold Rain

Prepare for sleet!! I wish this thing would pull a surprise or two...in the right direction.

Haha, as it turns out, things usually end up looking bad for the Triangle. But nah, he'll roll in here when snow's coming down hard and let us know the radar upstream is drying up.

Yeah man. I have the screens in the windows so I can open them up and listen to it fall without any of it coming in on me!

Nope. I wish I did, though.

Widre is going to be right. It'll take until the wee hours of the morning for temps to drop below freezing here. At least, the rain will wash all of the brine off the road.

BOOM! That needs to be a tradition anyway.

Lol SE Wake.

Yeah, you should be fine with more snow and less chance of rain than me. HRRR brings rain to the neighborhood right next to me.

Yeah, the models keep shifting NW.

Yeah, I'm actually seriously wondering if it's going to rain here now.

Made that drive many times. If this storm wound up more, I wonder if it would crash the 850s sooner? Or should we root for it to be weaker?

I'm here...just hoping to see a burst of heavy snow in the daytime.

Models are run by specific mathematical equations that have to make assumptions about the state of the atmosphere. These assumptions result in model "biases" over time (i.e. the NW trend -- out in time, models forecast the storm too far to the east. They "see" the atmosphere better as the lead time decreases. As the "see" better, they "correct" their solutions/storm tracks. Usually, this corrects NW, as the modal bias is to model the storm too far to the east). Humans can observe these trends over time, recognize them, and adjust for them in their forecasting. Until we get to a state where the entire atmosphere can be observed and modeled, models will always have certain biases. It's up to us to recognize them and use them to our advantage when forecasting.

I'm worried about the NAM and RGEM, especially the RGEM. Is there anything that could legitimately happen to cause the mix line to be farther south?

It's not. If the model shows you mixing, you can rest assured that it will be more mixing for longer. It never ever goes the other way.

Yep, can't seem to get any trends in our favor. Mixing will be an issue for most of the storm. I'm still going for only one inch of snow on top of 2 inches of sleet in my area.

I hope Pack got some sleep last night or this morning. It's going to be hard to sleep tonight listening to heavy sleet hit the window all night.

Pack, what did our 6Z RGEM look like? Any good news there?

Just a small 30 mile shift SE. Peanuts. Just once!!!!

I think we avoid rain but the snow ain't coming back. It never does. I've lost the Canadian now. Euro up next.

I am going to go out on a limb and say that I will not get more than an inch of snow. Congrats north and western Wake.

Haha true! Time for a GFS fail now!

Well, that's disappointing.

When does the RGEM come out?

Boom!