Cold Rain

I'd give it about a 10-15% chance any of that snow band out west actually makes it into Raleigh.

Very accurate. Do you see how it sets up just west of Wake Co? The entire field should head exactly in the direction it's oriented with just enough eastward progress to give Brick Tamland a few flurries, as the southernmost part of the band scrapes the northern fringes of the county.

Only in areas where it's currently snowing!

I'm wondering if it warms up later as the system develops?

9" over my house. Lol 0% chance of an inch here. Mark it down.

I hear ya. Hopefully, the globals are right. My suspicion is, though, is that the warmer solutions may be more likely to turn out to be the correct ones.

Many a sad snow weenie has fallen into the "I think the models are overdoing the warming" trap!

Go with the NAM, sir!

What did Pack's Rgem have to say?

If it can sleet at 47, it can snow at 35. Come on!

Sleeting at the house. Awesome.

^ He'll have to correct that west a little when it's all said and done (especially the eastern edge), but not bad at all!

At the rate our winters are going, PR will see more snow this year than Pack or I. You have to move way south if you want snow these days. Even central Mexico is going to snow!

Final Call:

I hate the Navgem. But, I do agree with you. I think the flat solutions wake up, but I am also guessing that the UK & Co. are amped a little too much.

I have seen the UK be amped too much at this range many times, as well as the CMC. Throwing the NAM in the trash for now, I'm not discounting an amped solution, but I think the UK today is about the apex of amplification. My gut feeling is that we see a less amped solution that gets plenty of moisture back west, but temps are so marginal, only western areas will have any shot at slushy accums. Even there, it should be a struggle.

NM

How much snow do you get on the Canadian?

Yeah, I didn't see anything wrong with what you posted.

I agree with you. I don't think precip will be much of a problem, when it's all said and done. Will there be a warm layer? We don't know yet. Will the system arrive at such a time as to have given CAA enough of a head-start? We don't know yet. Will the bulk of the precip fall at night? It looks like it now, but that could change. How heavy will the precip be? We don't know yet, although, it will likely be heavy enough for effective dynamic cooling at some locales. Where? We don't know yet, although my best guess for an inch or three of snow (assuming all of these factors line up as favorably as possible) is a line from maybe Roanoke Rapids, to roughly Charlotte though the Upstate and Northern GA and west of there. Still lots of questions to be answered yet. This will likely be a very marginal situation, pretty much across the board, and very much rate driven.

Just a reminder, when forecasting snowfall amounts in the SE, it's best to use this simple formula: [(total snowfall from the model with the warmest mid-levels + total snowfall from the model with the warmest boundary layer / 2) + 0.25 (average of all model snow depth)] / 4 - (X" + Y") = Total accumulated snow depth* X sun angle reducer: December = 0, January = 1, February = 2, March = 3 Y warm ground temp reducer: Ground temp < 35 = 0, Ground temp 35 - 40 = 1, Ground temp 40 - 45 = 2, Ground temp 45 - 50 = 3, Ground temp > 50 = Go do something else *A negative number = 0"

If we had a supply of cold air being driven into the area, I'd be more concerned about it. IMO, there will be snow falling at my house at 32/33 or rain at 33/34.

Lol no way

I mean, it could be overcome with short bursts of heavy precip for a time, potentially, but the duration of any snowfall would be very, very limited.

With this kind of an extremely marginal setup, that would be solid rain for RDU. 0.7 is too warm.