Cold Rain

Good AFD to save: Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 3940 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 -- Highlight Changed Discussion -- 000 FXUS62 KRAH 101856 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 255 PM EDT Mon Sep 10 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A front will waver over the Piedmont of NC through Tue. Meanwhile, Hurricane Florence will track west northwest across the southwestern Atlantic Ocean between the Bahamas and Bermuda through Wed, then approach the Southeast U.S. Thursday and Thursday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1105 AM Monday... Main adjustment to the near term forecast was to add the mention of locally heavy/excessive rainfall for location primarily west of highway 1. 12Z upper air analysis and meso analysis depict an abundantly moist atmosphere over central NC with precipitable water values 1.8-2.0 inches. The flow from just above the sfc through 300MB fairly unidirectional from the SW. A mid level trough/shear axis was noted extending from the southern Appalachians to a vort max exiting the eastern Great Lakes. This feature projected to edge slowly east and weaken with time. Meanwhile, a sfc boundary was analyzed west-to-east in vicinity of the the SC border. This feature projected to lift slowly nwd later this afternoon. Convergence along this weak sfc feature coupled with the proximity of the mid level shear axis will initiate/sustain scattered convection this afternoon through this evening. Expect the greatest coverage generally west of highway 1. Due to the deep SW flow, training of showers/storms appears likely. This could lead to localized flooding, especially in low lying areas as well as urbanized locations. Due to the presence of the low level boundary, and the mid level support, scattered convection may persist through midnight, with convection gradually diminishing into the overnight. Extensive low clouds across the Piedmont impeding temperature recovery at this time. If low clouds persist through 17Z, will likely need to adjust max temps down a category, especially along and west of I-85. Expect a repeat performance of the low clouds and patchy fog overnight, mainly across the Piedmont and the northern Coastal Plain. Min temps in the upper 60s-lower 70s. && SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/... As of 415 AM Monday... An upr level low/shear axis will weaken over cntl NC on Tue. Meanwhile in the lwr levels, a surface front will linger and retreat nwwd across the nwrn NC Piedmont and Foothills, and the sea breeze will drift inland. These features will again focus mainly scattered showers and storms, maximized with diurnal heating, Tue afternoon. Low clouds and areas of fog over the nrn and wrn NC Piedmont are likely to disperse more rapidly than previous days, with resultant temperatures more uniformly in the mid-upr 80s throughout cntl NC. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 255 PM Monday... WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: As of Monday afternoon, Hurricane Florence has strengthened to a category 4 major hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph. There remains significant spread in the model solutions, making it difficult and too early to tell where the most significant impacts within the state will occur. With the National Hurricane Center anticipating a Thursday landfall the average track error this far out is between 100-150 nautical miles, and so there are many details yet to be ironed out. There is however increasing confidence that North Carolina will suffer significant impacts from Hurricane Florence and preparations should be completed as soon as possible. For residents of central NC, sustained tropical storm force winds with gusts to hurricane force will be possible. This will likely cause a significant number of power outages and downed trees across the area. The greatest risk to residents of central NC will be with inland flooding. As the storm makes landfall it is expected to slow down, thus increasing the time Florence remains over the state. This will enhance the flooding threat and those who already know they live in a flood prone area need to take appropriate action to make sure they have a safe place to go during the storm. Now is the time to have a plan in place and ready to go and to have your hurricane kits fully stocked. Residents need to be prepared for potentially long periods of time without power or water. Stay tuned to the forecast and to messaging coming from NC Emergency Management for the latest information. You can visit the NWS Raleigh Tropical page at http://www.weather.gov/rah/tropical for information from the National Hurricane Center as well as local statements and forecasts. -Ellis SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: This stage of the forecast remains very uncertain, as all of the forecast is reliant on the eventual track, intensity, and survivability of Florence once it makes landfall. In general, models tend to be in agreement with a rapidly decaying yet nearly stationary tropical system overhead by the weekend. This slow progression will likely keep gusty winds and heavy tropical downpours active across much of central NC, with potentially several inches of additional precipitation possible each day. Pinpointing the areas likely to be hardest hit remains very difficult due to the wide array of model spread that still exists, so please continue to monitor for future developments in the forecast. - JJM && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 140 PM Monday... Lingering low stratus over portions of the Piedmont, with IFR/low end MVFR ceilings, will lift into a scattered broken cu field by 21z with bases 3500-5000ft. Scattered convection will develop over portions of the Sandhills and southern Piedmont through 21Z. The threat for scattered convection will increase across the remainder of central NC after 21Z, persisting until 02Z. In vicinity of the heavier showers and storms, anticipate IFR visibilities and MVFR ceilings, and wind gusts 25-30kts. After 06Z, areas of low stratus and fog will redevelop across the northern half of central NC, leading to IFR/LIFR ceilings and IFR visibilities. The adverse aviation conditions will likely linger through most of Tuesday morning. Comparable conditions expected Tuesday night into Wednesday. By Thursday, the extremely adverse affects of Hurricane Florence may begin to impact the eastern sections of central NC by Thursday morning, and the entire region by late Thursday, persisting into Friday. Aviation conditions are expected to slowly improve expected by Saturday. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...MWS LONG TERM...Ellis/JJM AVIATION...WSS

There will be some major damage for interior sections with that run. Yikes.

So that's not a ton different, but you have to say it is caving to the others a little. A couple more cycles like today, and SC should be completely out of the woods.

Not trying to be a weenie, but the GFS track assumes a NW trajectory right now. That isn't occurring so far.

Both. In spades.

These are good questions. I’m going to punt, as I’ve never had to use one...knock on wood. Can anyone here answer the above, please?

Go ahead and pull the trigger. It’s a good thing to have whether you use it next week or not. Plus, if you’re hoping for a Florence miss, why not go ahead and seal the deal early?!

We’ll know in 24 hours!

Keep searching.

We'll do it all over again next year. Been fun! Anyone ever hear from Packbacker?

He does tend to get burned out and take breaks. But not having him around isn't cool.

I mean, a few people didn't like his posting about the warm-up we're currently in. But nothing big, so far as I know. I PM'd him but never heard back.

What happened to RAH_MET? Also, I'm legit concerned about Packbacker. Can somebody do a Ping or Traceroute?

I think there's some issue around this, but it's not happening with me.

No, that would be awesome!

Nice, Falls. Well, I guess we hit our average for the year and finally broke the single storm 6.0 barrier. Time to crush it now.

That would be good. I was hoping we could get the monkey off the back this year. It's hard to believe that they didn't get more than six, given their location and all of the reports of greater than that near that area.

LOL RDU still hasn't broken the 6" mark since 2010. 5.9". Haha!

I wish Packbacker was here. I hope he’s ok.

Better than a sharp stick in the eye.

I was really feeling good about it until this afternoon. Usually, when there’s a jackpot zone just west of the Triangle, there’s a cliff through Wake Co., even if the models still show robust totals on the east side. Models try to spread that gradient out too much over too wide an area. I could see Orange Co. get 7” and my area get 1”.

4”.

Definitely a good point. Would be really interesting if virtually every model missed it within 24 hours. Don’t care as much about temps this time, but slowing the precip down and/or greatly shortening the duration of it is not a happy thing.

Haha true!

You should comeback as jackerel_sky.