Cold Rain
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Everything posted by Cold Rain
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The flies will come in. They are bad this year. And the mosquitoes. And the gnats.
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What if we stay 80s/90s into October and then 70s/80s in November and then 60s/70s, with the occasional 80s, for the rest of the winter? With 80% humidity. What a winter!
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Happy Fall, from your friends at the Global Forecast System:
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It’s getting ridiculous at this point.
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I know which model I'd rather have in my camp!
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Thanks, BFF. Looks like the Triangle area is going to end up ok. Some decent rain showers and gusty winds, but that's about it.
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And there's no getting around that. When it becomes available, someone please post a precip map for the Euro. TIA
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If this was a snowstorm in January, it would be north, north, north every run.
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I think that will turn out not to happen...that really far south track.
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What has been the reason this thing has been steadily weakening in the face of what has continually been modeled to be a good environment for strengthening?
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That's well within the margin of error, IMO.
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So the crappy models are north and the good models moved south. Cool.
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I agree with this.
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You talking about the RGEM or last night's CMC? The NAM is now making landfall, as does the RGEM, which tracks west after instead of SW.
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ICON tracks quite a bit farther north after stalling near ILM. Never makes it into SC. The last two runs have been farther north.
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^^ I'm sure everything about that map will operate in reverse in the winter.
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Thanks, Grit. Great visual.
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Going to be some high rainfall totals again.
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Looks like it's turning wnw at 49 on a heading for Myrtle Beach. Edit: Lol 48. What's an hour among bad models?
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Wonder if there are any biases to breaking the ridge down too fast or keeping it in place too long, etc. that would be good to know here?
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It looks like the stall is happening offshore on most of those. If this trend continues, it would be terrible for beach erosion/flooding/surge but probably better for inland areas, as there should be some weakening of the storm. Wouldn't it be nice for once to have a storm that maintained motion for the duration?
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Thanks. That makes sense.
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Agreed. I was just wondering out loud if there is any real tendency for models to over-break down steering in the 3-5 day range. I don’t know if that’s a real thing or not, but I’ve seen it happen more than it seems like it should.
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This is just anecdotal, but I have seen a lot more 3-4 day model forecasts for stalls (leading to major flooding and disaster) than I have actually seen stalls happen. Really doesn’t tell us much about this situation...just an observation.
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I would place the odds of the path moving a few ticks right slightly higher than to the left, at this point.
