YetAnotherRDUGuy

Err. Where?? You didn't specify a location of where this would take place. Also, didn't you say RAH wouldn't issue WSW's for Wake the other day?

Heh. Notice that says 'Snow Potential', and not what his actual forecast is. He's covering his ass. And I don't blame him.

Interesting. Also explains why the grid forecast for accumulations are sometimes different than the accumulations mentioned in the text of Winter Storm Warnings. I always figured it was because one was updated before the other, and it would take awhile for both to reflect the same forecast. The more you learn.

I wish I was in GSO for this one. I think ya'll are about to get plastered.

I think it's cause we're on the line between a big event and a washout (as always), and we don't want to jinx it. Personally, I think we're in for a sleetfest. Maybe 2 or 3 inches of mostly concrete, with a smooth glaze of frz rain on top, but hopefully not enough to make the lights flicker. Perfect sledding conditions.

I want my FV3!

RAH is currently saying 2-4 inches possible during Sunday in my point and click forecast for N Wake. Since I believe that is warning criteria, a WSW is probably certain.

I couldn't agree more. Confession time. In my younger years, I used to actually root for getting a lot of Frz Rain. Because people always talked about how bad it was in large amounts. But I figured they were just exaggerating, and just one time I wanted to see if they were right. And then this happened. I lived in Thomasville at the time. Out of power for 8 days. *To this day, this is the ONLY winter weather storm that I would prefer not to have experienced in retrospect.

Lol. I honestly hope you're right about that. I'm pulling for either snow/sleet or cold rain. Frz rain looks pretty and all. But then you're power goes out, and suddenly it doesn't look so pretty anymore.

Sigh. Time to prepare for an ice storm.

Lord have mercy.

Some of these clown maps are so confusing. And how about that FV-3 map, depicting at least 1 foot (most places more) from RDU to CLT, across to Asheville, to the Triad, up to Danville? Has that ever happened before across a wide area across the state?

Nah--no one's mentioned it yet.Those same people that would mention it are more worried about the ground being too warm. Thank god it ain't late Feb.

At least we don't have to worry about someone mentioning the sun angle this time of year.

That's what I get for asking this in the sanitarium. Howzibout I says with the sheer amount of QPF some models are spitting out, this thing has more potential than other storms to be historic (somewhere..). Also, this is gonna be a long week tracking this.

Who thinks this could be one of those historical storms we mention years from now?? Like 02/14, or Carolina Crusher, or Jan 96, or '93, or '88, etc...

I feel bad for some of you jokers that get paid to forecast this. I think Florence is trolling all of us.

Tell her it's about as wide as the state of SC.

Honestly, I think it's too early to say what roads would be like 10 days from now.

If I had to pick a track that would bring the highest impact to the most people in NC, it would be that one. An initial shot of hurricane sustained winds right into Triad, and splitting the uprights of Charlotte and RDU. Not to mention the potential for a stalled cyclone meandering for days. I will not speculate on the potential impact of that scenario, but will focus on the fact we are still a few days out, and hoping something changes in regards to track/intensity.

I hear you. It's definitely not a typical approach angle, and that has me a bit more concerned than usual. I'm starting to get real "Fran" vibe when considering the possible impact from this. But then again--that was only 115 at LF. Sheesh. We can't rule out a Hugo intensity at LF at the moment.

Admittedly, that's a pretty ominous forecast. The only silver lining I can think of is that it's 5 days out instead of 2...

Random thoughts on Florence 5+ days to potential LF: 1) With a few notable exceptions, these hurricanes ALWAYS seem to trend towards a more northward landfall as the storm gets closer to shore. Today the NC/SC border is in the bullseye, but tomorrow morning it might be Wilmington. And then Cape Lookout. And then Hatteras... 2) NHC has a possible cat 4 upon landfall, which is quite a rare event in the Carolinas (only Hazel and Hugo have done this I believe). Perhaps something will come up as it gets closer that could hinder development that we can't see at the moment? Like perhaps a nicely time ERC, or unexpected strong sheer coming up before LF that isn't modeled right now? 3) is this loop idea something we should actually be considering as possible? I recall some models flirted with this idea for Matthew, but we know that didn't happen. Both Diana and Dennis went stationary at one point and did loops, but those are the only two I know of. 4) Dat GFS run had some biblical qpf totals. I don't want to even consider that scenario being a possibility.

Winter Weather Advisories are up on the Gulf Coast. From TX all the way to near Pensacola. (but not quite IN Pensacola) I'm starting to think Mobile, AL might outperform some of us for this event. (snicker)

I think it's trying to communicate.