TSSN+

Good thing it was not cold leading in or this would been ugly. 

Still below freezing here. .2” zr and more falling. 

Quick wake up and check on things. 31 and everything is covered in a bunch of ice. 

It’s straight hammering ZR. 30 here and coming down in buckets. 

Radar looks juiced 

Radar currently looks like precip is further east than hrrr has it. 

32.0/28 light mist. Not freezing, yet 

58 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

34/24 here . Should wet bulb to 30 easily later this evening once precipitation gets back in here .

Ya 33/28 now 

Sun breaks here in Westminster. 35

Stepping outside this morning was not pleasant lol. 32/25. 

Well time to charge up my devices lol. 

Namd 

Nam finally folds. Icy as all get out. 

69 at 3pm, 43 now. The chill is on. 

8 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Current temp in Frederick is 72. 18Z NAM forecast was 59….. 12Z GFS 52, EURO 61.  So colder air is behind schedule so far.

Usually always is. 

5 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

It's actually a blend of of over 30 pieces of guidance both raw and bias corrected. There's a huge mix of guidance, some of which public doesn't have access to, and some that you do. Off the top of my head, I can name 15 or so, but there's a ton of others. Sorry I can't give the full details on the matter. 

Ah ok thanks for the info. Sounds like some top secret stuff haha 

2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

NBM at 18z continues to target the northern tier with some ice accretion beginning Thursday night into early Friday before exiting out between 10-12z. A solid advisory type event possible with the current numbers with some sleet also in the mix. Still intriguing to see the totals being spit out by the blend. Even if 75%, it would certainly be a headache for any commute on Friday AM. I would plan ahead if I lived north of I-70, especially away from the Baltimore Metro. 

What models does it blend? Cause there none that are that low that I’ve seen for PA boarder areas. 

11 minutes ago, mappy said:

why ask the question when you already know the answer? lol

Well northern Maryland into southern pa might be in for some issues for sure. 

1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

Pretty straightforward .Strong Banana high .Temps go below freezing Wed evening and stay at or below in many favored areas till mid to late  morning Friday verbatim. Roughly 36 hours. Most precip is over by then. Tomorrow's 12z runs should settle in on the specifics more hopefully. 

Guidance has definitely zeroed in on most of Pennsylvania getting a really hard hit with ice . It's almost a lock for them . Far northern tier of Md  is gaining support fast to join them imo. 

Don’t think you got the joke. 

2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Lol yeah, that cold is gonna run like a stray dog

I meant the power is likely to go out if we get that much ice. 

Oh look more wind 

6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Historically and climo wise this setup definitely argues for significant icing and surface temp holding power . 

Thursday early evening High placement looks legit stout. 

 

I don’t know about holding “power”though…lol 

Rgem still damn icy for northern tier. 

8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I mean for northern areas.  Yeah, it shows ice down here to southern MD, but I mean....lol

It is still pretty far north with qpf compared to other models though.