@frd Dont get me wrong...I dont claim to fully grasp some of these things....so, I am happy to be corrected when I spout off something about the SOI...strat or really anything other than longwave patterns! lol Still learning daily but it's what keeps me hooked on this odd hobby.
IMO, I think the IO convection is calming down but this sneaky storm forecasted would crash pressures in Darwin and you can see the higher pressures out near Tahiti....thus increasing the easterlies. Who knows tho.....We all know what a forecasted 7+ day hurricane track is like around here. Usually not on the money...