poolz1

12z GFS puts up a pretty nice west based block during that time....

Ah...my bad. Just started reading from the top of the first page after looking at the overnight runs. I agree completely that this progression is what we want to see. There is just no way to from point A to point C without going through point B. Point B being the temporary crap look with the vortex over/near AK.

Almost feel like ducking behind something by posting this...But, I liked what I saw on the EPS LR. If we are looking forward and not allowing the failure of past epic looks so far to cloud our opinion, the eps looks primed to jump right into it's weekly progression.

I guess the gfs requires a vortex over Maine in order to get something underneath us....

Except the fact that we have not seen epic blocking yet in real time but we have seen crap...which makes the run more believable. I am still optimistic. Maybe I am in the minority? I can see how we have the next 7-10 days of a pattern that is conducive for snow...a week where things are blah and then a few weeks of a good/great pattern. I am certainly aware that the 'epic' idea may be out the window and that is a bummer but we still have a propensity for HLB throughout Feb and an active STJ. We would kill for that possibility most winters.

The ns wave that acts as the kicker for what had a chance to be a memorable storm is now becoming the focus..

Part of what is probably necessary. You cant have the split without a piece moving through an area that temporarily gives us a crap pattern, imo. Will it get stuck there or take it's time moving through? I have a hunch it is temporary due to the MJO most likely heading toward 7/8 in the LR....

I wonder if the sig piece of the PV being trapped in C Can, as a result of the sswe, is kind of the wildcard the weeklies were not seeing in runs several weeks ago? Both the EPS and especially the 18z gefs want to weaken and split this. I think it is possible that during this evolution as one piece heads WNW toward AK and the other toward SE Canada we are just seeing a slight reshuffle and the pattern relaxing. Having this vortex split hopefully opens the door to ridging in C Canada and also makes ridging in the NAO region much more likely. Maybe this Pac crap head fake is just the models trying to figure out exactly how this evolves and hopefully it's actually what we need.

One of the sig changes in the EPS regarding monday's possible storm is the number of members with a strong storm at our lat. Didnt dive into precip types and evolution but there are many sub 980 lows close by...a few sub 970 and even one 956 over NJ. 12z did not have this signal

That ns s/w is becoming close to being a player rather than a kicker...

Yea, big shift west at h5..

Probably why the NAO region is so difficult to predict. Individual storm progressions can change the NAO forecast greatly..per HM's discussion. The AO is more big feature/forcing related and therefore more predictable and stable.

I bet that pic doesnt do it justice....Was just looking at the moon with the kids through binoculars...pretty impressive. Too cold for the telescope! lol 17/-1 gusts to 25

Nobody knows...but you can hedge your bets. If what you are looking for is either epic or fail....you are bound to be disappointed. As others have stated...tropical forcing has ruled so far. It's almost Feb and there is no reason to think that will change, imo. There are other drivers that can either mitigate or accentuate the effects from tropical forcing and we have a sswe to help us in this MJO tour of the warm phases. I think this should be enough to stave off any idea of a shutout. IF the MJO has it's way...combined with the effects from the sswe I would think we have 2 weeks of a serviceable pattern and then 2 weeks of a pretty darn good pattern. I love tracking and speculating on systems <10 days...just throwing out some thoughts in the uber lr

Doesnt he have +NAO shoveling to do?

Not necessarily speaking about the size of the precip shield but qpf shouldn't be an issue where ever it ends up. Look at the feed right out of the tropics.

The look of the GEFS after day 10 look icy to me. A ton of low level cold...

How about a thread for just one poster?

Looks better than 00z imo. Maybe someone with better Ukie maps could chime in. Basically the slp travels from upstate SC to VA Beach. Further SE than 00z. Precip maps look pretty good also for this time period. I just dont know for sure about P types.

Did you glance at either the gefs or the eps? Starting today...the entire run is cold.

it's all relative I think... It's not a KU pattern like we all wanted for weeks on end but it's a pretty good pattern and a KU is far from being out of the question. Both gefs and eps suggesting some ridging across the south....but look at the low level arctic air that is still pressing....same panel that CAPE just posted. And by this time the MJO should be all but dead again.

My thoughts exactly. Most here could care less about the MJO and for good reason sometimes but it is affecting the PAC pattern in the LR. Fortunately cold will have already overwhelmed the pattern and the MJO will be decaying once again toward the end of the forecast period....if forecasts are correct. I think we have enough drivers in our favor to blunt the effects but it may keep us from getting those 'epic' looks.

33/33 1.63" of liquid

Rain. Temp keeps creeping down..... 10th of a degree every 30 min or so. 32.9 now. I am sure it will start climbing here soon but would think there is a pretty good ice storm going on in the valleys of the hills to my NW.

Now that's a CAD...good lord.