poolz1

mping reports of light snow just west of Columbus OH. Leading edge of precip just reaching that area in the past hour....temps/dews in that area are pretty uniform around 10/0.

Radiating nicely... 6.8/-1 Radar not looking too bad...it's got a little juice with it. It's yet to battle it out with the apps...so, we'll see.

3k "juiced" up a little at 12z as well. Would be nice to see mesos push this to .2 qpf throughout the day. Probably a stretch but that would really make this a nice little event.

-1.8 now but reached -2.1 for the low so far.

I havent seen the ind members yet but the with panels like this...I would imagine its another weenie run. Active and colder than 12z..

GEFS coming in with a PNA ridge building by D12. Big dif from 12z....

11/-10 A rare reading for 6pm...even in the coldest part of winter.

Yea...some sort of shutout seems to be in the making. Like you said, somewhere in that D8-12 range. Hoping as we get closer it ends up being a 2-4 day transient ridge that traverses the CONUS. I wont lie...I am extremely discouraged losing any time in Feb to a shutout...but, what are you going to do? I'll keep looking down the road and tracking...until the smallmouth start to wake up!

Cherry picked LR op panel but....if you loop that last few runs of the FV3 it carries the same theme and maybe the way out. A new, what will be Aleutian low, rotates down and kicks the Gulf of AK ridge poleward. The 18z run connects the west based block and this ridge. Rolling this forward you can see how quick the PNA ridge will pop...

I know most are probably done with SOI and MJO talk....usually when it is discussed it's due to a crap pattern in the LR. Believe me, I want to strangle my laptop after every ens run in the past 24-36 hrs. I may be grasping here but I feel like the D12-16 on the ens will start to morph into a workable pattern. We were at this same point last time the MJO was in this location.....Euro said the MJO would die and head into the center while the GEFS said we were looking at a historic phase 7 amp. What happened was a compromise and a move into 8. It's almost a carbon copy right now in terms of the forecasted progression. Pressure panels are moving forward in time in regards to the SOI turning neg....and by neg I mean something more than a -3 or 4. We need some -20s and -30s. There are some big departures showing up on the GEFS starting just after D10. A big neg turn in the SOI combined with the models coming to their senses with the MJO and I think we will find that the trough west/ridge east will not be a stable pattern.

I dont really follow the CFS besides it's MJO forecast. Seeing some of the CFS forecasts posted here, the latest GEFS look pretty similar. Hoping we start to see the block trend stronger in the med range....with some of the systems set to cross the CONUS a stronger block could start to change the mood a bit.

Yea, the west based block really goes nuts from that panel on out....Def areas that need some fixing for a great pattern but the changes were noticeable pretty early on. An indication that we are still adjusting even in the med range.

LR is so jumpy right now...but, 12z gefs is at least jumping in the right direction this run.

Just some minor changes at H5 on the gefs for next weekend.

Both Ens and ops look to turn the SOI neg on a consistent basis after D10ish. Op runs actually have what would be some pretty robust negatives and ens agree. Maybe this is signaling a move toward phase 8 in the LR.

I wonder if the lack of a classic +PDO falls into Tip's idea of a lack of gradient? If the PDO was in classic nino form we would have that cold tongue pointing across the PAC creating that gradient.

We are in that window where you would expect the ens to pretty much follow the op. Such a precarious setup....still, it's good to see no red flags on the eps. (for tue/wed) if the ind members had a Kuchera option most would look like the op.

Just had a massive sycamore tree fall into the creek. Tree is about 28" in diameter.... Thought someone had an accident on the road near our house....huge crash.

Man! Long duration 30:1 type stuff. precip moving in with temps in the single digits.

I'll take a fringed solution like this....temps in the single digits in the afternoon with snow falling! Would be a first for me....

Heh, that's an interesting point....still learning here.... So, if the SOI starts a neg dive would you expect the nino MJO plots to be more representative? On the flip side...earlier in the season the nino plots worked well even during the warm phases. I'm starting to realize that this novice may never grasp this relationship..lol maybe thats why it keeps me interested.

Agreed. With the el nino being lackluster this is a much better indication of what to expect with each phase. Though the H5 MJO charts with an MEI of >+1 worked well earlier in the season...they dont seem to be lining up now.

I like the look of higher heights pushing into GL from Scan. Looks like as soon as the ridge pops into AK the lower heights in N Can and the Bahamas will start to form right where the weak ridging is located east of the Miss....and hopefully open the door to a better NAO look.

Dont disagree with that at all. Though, I will say..."maybe it's wrong" is the best way to approach any panel on an op run post D10 and here lately that seems to apply to ens runs as well. But saying its probably wrong does no imply that the only other option is epic blocking.

Doesnt last long...by D10/11 it degrades pretty quick. But...op run post D10. So, happy hour will probably be dif..lol