poolz1

GFS op has shown several systems like this throughout it's runs. A weaker wave ejects south of us while a cutter forms on its heels. A little odd but not completely unbelievable.

Not that it will work out exactly as depicted but the GEFS are throwing out some weenie looks a H5 in the LR. All caveats apply, obviously...(and there are a lot) The rotation of the MJO makes it somewhat believable tho...

FV3 has stj on roids after our potential storm next week. Has another shot or two in our area and then a OHV blizzard....'78 style. Maybe this is all falling in our lap....minus the epic look up top.

A slightly stronger 50/50 and blocking this run....would have thought the transfer and coastal development would have been even better than 0z. Lets get this to 120 hours....where the euro will lock onto a close to reality outcome...Nice to have something on the table tho..

1038 High anchored in a prime spot.

Is the "ECMM" on the MJO page the bias corrected version?

LOL...See, this is much better than Snowstorm56473's posts (or whatever his name was).

Pretty good signal on the eps for something frozen in the D7-10. A lot of west tracks w/ cad and op style solutions and even a hand full of coastals. Some amped up west solutions that rain on us but the majority keep us in the game.

Thanks...I see what you mean. That would probably be a more realistic evolution...considering where we are now. Like you said...I would be fine with that and I would almost rather roll the dice with your description than with a classic PNA from the Baja to AK. Keep throwing darts at us and sooner or later we will hit a good period...pos a great period if the NAO can truly tank.

Agree that the GEFS are pretty much worthless but 06z is looking a bit better.....Not believable except for the fact it looks closer to the EPS rather than moving further away. I really dont think there is much doubt now about where the SOI is going in the midrange. Looks like a big crash is on the way starting around D7. You can see the trop convection shifting east through the run....ending up over of just east of the DL. IMO, this is enough of a change in the trop PAC to help shift the main features eastward (EPO ridge/West trough). Would really like to see the models pick up on this but nothing to really hang your hat on yet. But, if the crash is real...we should start to see the adjustments in the D10-15 here soon. With the way things have worked out this season....I am optimistic but not holding my breath either.

The LR thread over the past 48 hrs... Post: "I had a cat once that I didnt like" Response: "Stop saying you hate kittens" Tiresome

To be honest...the D5+ is so active I lose sight of comparing the right system between dif models. To me it looked like the euro wanted nothing to do with the wave train idea but is focusing on a version of the gfs' D10 system.

My thought exactly when thinking about how that run could have been money....Gonna change obviously but it's a pretty good signal for a big qpf maker and a big cold high in the vicinity. A lot of options on the table but good to see the euro op throw it's hat into the ring.

Actually fits well into what a lot of the ens have been showing as a most likely outcome.....Juiced up wave attacking the backside of an arctic high. We can do well in those if the timing is right....need the high to not run away with it's tail tucked. Verbatim...3-6" thump ---> ice ---> rain/dry slot. I'd be fine with that..

Euro coming on board for D9-10. May not be clean but a lot of juice and should be a lot of frozen.

The PNA has been + for the entire winter....minus a few neutral periods. A quick glance at that graph it looks like most of our snow has come during/near PNA neutral periods.

Same total here.... 2.2" Seems like the winter of long duration light snow events. Snowed without a break for almost 12 hours. Season total: 21.2" Need about 4-5 inches to hit climo.

Back to pixie dust....fun while it lasted. Agreed...I dont need 30" but I dont want 5-6". Something in between with some good dynamics would be great.

20/17 1.8" May be able to crack the 2" mark before it winds down. Still mod snow, high ratio stuff. Eta: Going out with a thump! Heavy, big fluffy dendrites piling up quick. Dam we need a solid warning level storm.

Mod fluffy dendrites...beautiful outside. Havent measured but roughly 1.5"+

Lt snow. 14/9 Just measures .4"

Was just looking at ens runs to see when the SOI might turn neg....looks like by D8/9 and then really neg after D12. I really think this will be the catalyst for a consistent eastern trough in the means. Def starting to get that phase 8ish look in the LR. Will be interesting to see the MJO forecast today.

Temps is climbing...Virga should be over here shortly. 13/4

I agree...looking healthier than I expected. Also surprised at the reports of snow not too long after returns move in....looks like less than an hour lost to virga. Pretty surprising given the airmass...