poolz1

Temp has pretty much remained steady at 32.1 since the clouds rolled in an hour ago. Dont see it rising more than 2 or 3 degrees before precip.

Wet bulbs pretty uniform across the region....upper teens/lower 20's. Column should cool pretty quick if we can get some decent rates....Right now I would say the radar looks promising.

That control run is sweet...but what's more impressive than the snow totals is the fact that it gets 3 dif systems under us in the D10-15. Ind members started to pick up on the same theme. Let's hope this is a shift from the relentless cutter idea...

06z euro looks better for MD Line.

It'll be here soon! http://snaggedline.com/

Was out all day today and wasn't watching runs. You are right about the eps but the gefs hasnt had a ripe NAO as early as D10 at all. EPS hinted at 00z. Who knows...but, if it's actually going to happen this is the way it starts. Sit and wait...... Went to the hunting/fishing show in Harrisburg yesterday.....I want snow badly but i am also getting the fishing bug big time! Give me a spring drought in March so we can have summer flow and spring fishing conditions. Been a long time since we have had below norm precip in spring.

@psuhoffman We always talk about how the NAO region is tough for models to predict....usually it comes into focus in the med range. The GEFS made a pretty big jump to a stout -NAO by D10. Pretty dramatic shift imo compared to 12z...

Max sfc temp for the euro/gfs for FDK is 33/35 for the entire event. But, I do get what you are saying....I have my hesitations with this one as well. As @clskinsfan mentioned...a real solid cad event would show up all the way down to SWVA/NC. Gun to my head, 2-3" before some icing....rain.

Agree with you in a general sense. But, each event is of it's own character...With dews like this 6 hours before precip and a high that is not racing NE in the process, we are probably looking at a dif outcome than just history of ULL tracks. Not saying this has big boom potential but it has much better potential than if you took just general climo for an ULL track.

Anytime I mention snow maps I feel like I need to add some kind of disclaimer....unfortunately. It eliminates having to respond to 10 replies about the reliance of them. With that said, I did not know that....In that case, obviously the mean improved but the ind members look pretty darn sweet...compared to 0z.

Just looked...wow. A very nice improvement...had to take a double take. I didnt expect that tbh. I understand the issue with snow maps when it come Ptype but imby I went from 2.5" @0z to 4.5" at 12z. An indication of the better CAD...as you mentioned.

Euro high is way too weak. Need a 1040 with a cutter. 1032 is too pedestrian yea...seeing a sub 1035 is disappointing. Certainly was hoping for a trend the other direction. But, at the same timestamp the gfs with a 5mb stronger high gives us this...and is usually underdone. Euro at the same time has 850 0c line running thru your backyard.

Euro with a slightly weaker high than the gfs....still, the CAD seems way underdone to me. Looking at 850's you can barely see an indication of a CAD even with a nice high in a prime spot (h120).

Looks like a parade of storms on the gfs....similar to the one for early next week. Big cold highs to the N and juiced up systems attacking....hopefully as we get out in the D10-15 with a little better overall h5 look we can time one of these up with a good block. Gonna be a wild month I think ... Eta: Like this block...

I think we can too....we know our climo out here with this type of setup.

FV3 came to it's senses. Looks like a better version of what the GFS showed at 0z.

You made me look! Good catch....also note that as the run progresses the GFS puts another ULL just west/over Hudson Bay. FV3 has ridging and the system can continue to dig under us. Not out of the question the GFS is wrong with the placement of that feature...or even it's existence at all. Same goes for the FV3 tho...who knows? Ha!

Sub 990 tucked into OC.....Sick run but not much support for this type of evolution....unfortunately.

@psuhoffman That's a great look....probably some -20's coming. If the ops are correct we should start seeing the SOI tumble in about 3-4 days. Maybe this fails us also but we have yet to see a legit crash this season...Something new and improved is on the way.

Ha! No doubt...That's the only reason i hang out in this godforsaken place...

Meh...I've been known to talk to myself about the weather...especially durning model runs. Just ask my wife. Nobody else in this house give a sh*t if it snows...I'm the only oddball!

It's hopscotch right over us....

Verbatim it's a M/HECS....Probably turn to mix/rain in our area but not before a massive thump. Not because it's cutting. Too amped/too tucked coastal. ETA: Dont know how I responded to my own post? @Chris78

You nailed it.....

A strong cutter may alter things going forward...Maybe it will lay the groundwork for a D10+ HECS?