poolz1
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Everything posted by poolz1
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Small shifts mean a lot in this setup but the only shift I really saw was the precip shield and strength of cold push from the N. The slp tracks right along the NC/VA boarder. A money track for keeping what cold is around in place.
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The weenie run may not be over....Too far out to take serious but D10 may be #4
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I can see how this could evolve....Either a more consolidated system or maybe another long duration event. I mean look at this weekend. Even if we fail Sat/Sun the changes over the past 48 hours at h5 are nothing short of dramatic.
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Out there in time with having two systems ahead of it but there is a serious CAD leading into the system next week.
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Can we go 3 for 3?
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Just had a burst of heavy sleet come thru with a heavier band. A bit surprising....holding steady at 32.4 and trees are still accumulating ice. Power has flickered a few times...
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Tough to tell for sure but the s/w is pretty much in the same spot as 0z just a little stronger/more defined. Everything else looks the same...would be similar to 0z track but maybe a bit stronger surface low. Just a guess...I hate extrapolating!
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Just an obs so fwiw....06z euro has a bit more vigorous s/w at hr 90 compared to 00z. Surface reflection is about the same. Certainly looks poised to slide under us....
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Looks like 2-4" areawide before the flip.
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How about that -23.34 SOI today! Eoro has a pretty major ice storm again for next week. Over 1" qpf with temps well below freezing....especially NW of 95. A slightly colder version of yesterday's 12z run.
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Same here.. .5" new. Of course returns lift N of me as soon as I flip to snow. Not sure we can hang onto a cold column until more steady precip arrives...
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Agreed. Maybe someone has found a set of variables that would create a pattern of trough west/SE ridge even with a P8-1 MJO. That would be an awesome find. As we know, nothing is a guarantee in this business....and a P8-1 does not guarantee anything. .... but the correlation to a good winter pattern for the east is very high whether we are nino or not and that means a lot imo.
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Agree completely with the bolded... At 10mb things are cooling and consolidating to a certain extent but we are still very weak as you progress down to 50mb. I think the strat is comparable to Cohen's theory on snow advance....It wouldnt get this much play if there wasn't something to it. The complexities and slight differences in development/progression...other drivers, can make them fools gold but also reliable tools. The beauty of seasonal forecasting is it's still in its infancy....
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Fine...But, he hasnt given any hints as to what his analogs/research has shown. Unless I have missed it. I admit I didnt dig into his feed to see if he has. He is obviously keying on the weak PV....I just wish I knew what years he has as a comparison....are they ninos? MJO similarities etc...
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Another long duration light snow event on the euro. We like them this winter.
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34dbz overhead....mod/hvy dendrites 30/27
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Same here...just measured 1". Steady mod snow falling 30/27
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Smaller flake size but still hvy snow. 31/27
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Absolute rippage....looks to be somewhat temporary but it sure is impressive outside right now.
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Solid coating on all surfaces. Mod/hvy snow. 32/26
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You are correct and so is WVclimo.... Def not a live shot. But....I click on the same cam and it shows the same shot. No snow out this way as of yet...something bogus with that cam.
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If you could make another post in roughly 30 min about your backyard rain forecast...that would be awesome! j/k
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You know, I really dont follow it often....I have no educated response. I do know that NEMD has trended better while other areas have held serve or trended worse. 18z Mon to 18z Tue is still evolving imo..
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Seems like NMD from fdk county eastward has evolved as models are figuring out that second surge of CAD. It has had a tendency to hold on longer as you get toward NEMD the last few runs. Temp spiked to 36 a while ago but has dropped to 34 as clouds have thickened....
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I know it has been modeled for a few days but that second surge of CAD is a bit of a wildcard, imo. Models have a tough enough time predicting a CAD situation...now they have to predict 2 in a 24 hr period. I think this alone keeps the door open for upside. Looks to occur right as the second wave approaches...Doesnt hold it's ground but certainly long enough for a good thump if rates come in heavy.
