poolz1
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Everything posted by poolz1
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33/9 and dropping pretty fast over the past 2 hours.
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One of the last vis shots of the day shows an area of clearing/thin high clouds moving east across NMD. May be enough to get a little rad cooling as the sun goes down. Every little bit counts to stay frozen as long as pos.
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3k with a wall of white moving in just in time for the am rush....1-2"/hr rates widespread. Most areas with these rates for 3-4 hours....
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Nice trough swinging through the mis valley in the same timeframe the gfs op has been signaling a storm. Maybe JB will finally get his grand planetary wave! lol
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Looking like this is really juicing up...GOM is wide open and precip is starting to blossom down south. GOES-East
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Just drove out that way this weekend. Headed west to Petersburg WV from Winchester. The tree damage was pretty serious in the elevated valleys....There were areas where almost every tree was topped off. I'm sure it looked like a war zone out there...
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Was just looking at dews on the latest models...Actually thought to myself that 2m temps will likely be 1-3 degrees colder than modeled once wet bulbing takes place. I can see 25/26f well NW of 95. Current dewpt imby is 10....which is about 3 degrees colder than forecast...
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Interesting tweet regarding the jet streak to our north. I think it was Milville that mentioned this anomaly yesterday.
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Euro showing some great rates...and probably more realistic. Take HGR for example. Shows 2" at 10am and 6" at 1pm.... As others have mentioned..1-2" per hour will be widespread for a decent period of time. Not that there couldnt be some sleet in the mix toward the end of that frame but certainly shows the massive slug of precip that will be pushing through mid morning. Biggest takeaway is the juicing up pre 18z wed...good to see the euro trending wetter.
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The way things are trending I can see someone getting 1" qpf before the flip. Most models are in the .4-.7 range but there are a few that are starting to push that 1" mark by noon/18z. That is one heck of a slug of moisture pushing east at the right time...even some of the typical qpf stingy mesos are juiced up.
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As others have mentioned...but, here is a visual of the improvement on the EPS for next week. Much better CAD signal...Neg departures (2mT) pushing down into N GA. 12z left 00z right
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Good...early spring fishing sounds good to me. I'll be watching and rooting for winter but I'm losing interest quick this year for some reason.
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I didnt...but you made me look. Ha! Yea, the NW trend is pretty clear (once off the coast)....I know the caveats of ens this close in but think they can be somewhat useful for spotting red flags. One thing I noticed for our backyards is the separation of clusters once the slp is in CVA along the NC boarder. There is a nice cluster that traverse VA without dipping into NC....and ride off the coast around VA beach. 06z was not even close to portraying this....
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@psuhoffman Great post on the MJO....I have heard the same thing in regards to the MJO stalling. I'm at the point now where I am not expecting anything at all...just meaning my expectations are not expecting anything in particular. lol This season has thrown me for a loop. The postmortem will be interesting this spring....mainly from mets trying to spin the reasons for the outcome of this winter.
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Thought the same thing in general for us northerners....Could be a little bit of a surprise event for DC and NE as well. Latest op runs and ens seem to give the slp a little bit more of a NE trajectory instead of due E off the coast. Maybe CAPE gets a late inning double off the top of the wall!
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Thanks...much appreciated. Yes....dont quite understand why all products cant be in one location?
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I know this is off topic a bit but where do you find the ind members on weather models? Is it right in front of my face (most likely) but for the life of me I cant find em...
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EPS looks better for next week. Looks like a 1-2" increase over 0z....yes, all I looked at was snowfall. The lazy man's approach but it's all the signal I need to know which direction it stepped vs 0z.
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Stopped on a back road on South Mtn about 30 min ago and took this pic...just a cell phone pic that doesnt do the scene justice. At least .5" ice still on the trees. With a slight breeze, the sounds were pretty crazy. Several roads closed around the area....but, most of the tree damage is confined to the ridges.
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Never heard of a "healthy pumping " of snow. lol May have to start using that one just to get the jokes going in a thread.
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Ended up with a solid glaze but nothing damaging.. A total of 1.9" snow....as of now 1.12" liquid. I liked this event...at some point I had heavy snow/sleet and or freezing rain. Amazing the razor's edge that set up.....I missed an ice storm by 1-2 degrees and 3-6" of snow by 15mi.
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Yea, for whatever reason that cam has been stuck on the same image for 24 hrs now. Wasn't even this storm. Of all the days to get stuck on....
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If you add 3-10" from CMD on N from today's event it looks pretty similar to the past few runs. IMO, it's rare to have the EPS show a 6+ mean areawide when there isnt a legit period on the way.
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I see, thanks. When you just look at the MSLP panels that high to the N was huge improvement over 0z...as Ji mentioned. But the primary gets all the way up Erie....
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Def has major ice after the thump. Big time CAD thats not going anywhere....Surprised at how fast we lose the snow look....I mean a huge banana high classic MA snowstorm look.
