poolz1

You are definitely getting old... Lol. I'm getting old too. My teenage daughter reminds me daily! I use Twitter for weather, sports, and fishing. I have no friends on Twitter and never post. But, I follow most of the folks that frd follows and I can say that none of the Twitter posts in here from frd are from "weenies." The previous thread posted was from well educated, level-headed and reputable folks. If you follow the right people Twitter is like the weather forum for a lot of professional Mets. Not everything is meant to be gospel... Just professionals tossing out ideas and thoughts. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

EPS with a very similar look. Both 12z ens runs with improvements in the areas needed to keep this train on track.

Another significant negative SOI value today. - 34.49 On a strat note:

Great to have your contributions as we approach game time, Bob! The pattern advertised over the next 2 weeks is certainly an overall positive. I agree. Just not looking for a reversal of any kind...a pull back or brief reshuffle is fine and almost a guarantee. I wait for the weeklies to come out so I have the answer...lol.

I was thinking that I hope thats not where the very long range looks are taking us (+AO). Out there in lala land and is bound to change but I dont like losing the +heights in AK and breaking that link with the ridging in Siberia. You can see how fast that vortex retreats to pole and tries to hold hands with our Aleutian low. On a glass half full note...maybe the scan ridge bullies the pattern anyway and we snap back to a -AO.

Its that time of year already? Degreed mets complaining about basement dwellers posting snow maps on twitter. I have always found this to be odd...I mean I get it but, come on. Twitter is a great way to get your message out for free. The down side is it is free for everyone to get their own message out. Love it or leave it...

A heck of a high pressure chain that stretches over the pole. GEFS with 4 or 5 cold shots over the next 15 days.

I saw that tweet and was hoping he was just trolling with his choice of words describing the cold. Highs in the teens and 20s in the upper Midwest won’t devastate anyone.

Factor in the progressive bias of the gfs and the amped bias of the euro and we should be shoveling next Friday.

Eps favors those climo regions you mentioned. That's OK tho.. Just keep sending down the cold and laying down the snow. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

Looks like today is the beginning of a persistent pattern. GEFS front 5 days ---> last 5 days. D11-16 looking like an even colder pattern with the scan ridge pushing and maybe a -AO starting to form. That Aleutian low looks great...

27.6 for the low....Heavy frost. Classic looking Nov morning along with a bunch of wild turkey in the yard.

Wow! 80 in Fredericksburg...impressive. 68 here at noon. Currently 73.

Just a little breezy so far today. Although, this brief moderate shower moving through has produced gusty conditions. Reminds me of a tropical system. Roughly 30mph or so but you can see how 50+ will be pretty easy with some convection. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

We have a tulip magnolia as well. 50/50 green and yellow right now. No doubt though,that tree goes quick. Love the tree but hate the fallen leaves. A pain to blow...especially if damp. A side note...I pruned the heck out of that tree in early March this year and have never seen so many blooms than this spring.

Dews pushing 70 just ahead of the front Thursday. Hoping we get trick or treating in before the line of storms push in. Looks nasty...

Looks like I’ll just wait for Olaf and stormpic to post and take the avg.

I think this is generally true. But, there are instances where you can can say things "should" trend either way. With the advertised h5 look... One can see how an ensemble would wash things milder out in time. True cross polar flow, if this look stays, will produce colder anomalies than currently advertised. We have seen this a handful of times already this fall with the Western cold. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

Maybe our first shot of winter as we approach mid November. Perfect timing....EPS agrees with the cross polar flow. Would think this look grows colder in time.

I dont see anything to complain about. EPS has the MJO going into the COD or low amplitude warm phases and the EPS extended H5 is great, imo. If this is our background state....we in good shape. Maybe a little wishful thinking but steady as she goes...Snow chances that can be taken seriously will soon be in forecast range. This year flew by...good grief. Seem like the older you.....

If the epic blocking during 09/10 was due in part from the low solar, then the lag has already occurred. (That’s more of a question than a statement). We are currently running very close to that period of time. Some hopes last year that the low solar would help us and maybe it effects started to snowball early this spring and is in process?

Also, the flow feeding the Canadian trough is straight out of Siberia and the Arctic. Creating a nice source region for us down the road.

Took a few shots with the drone as the rain was making its departure this morning. Almost peak color here. Probably another few days as it's been changing quick.. Pics dont do it justice but the color is surprisingly good this year. Looking NE, E and then SE

Absolutely. Always nice to at least have a climate model or two go against the grain. But, like I said a few pages back...last year taught me a lot. I really hung my hat on the fact that every climate/long range model show absolute epicness. What’s the difference with every model now showing the opposite of last year? Nothing, IMO. 2 weeks at a time is my new motto...though I do love trying to figure out the longer range stuff. It’s tough to keep my nose out of week 3+.

Well, that’s it. Cancel winter. See you next September...lol