poolz1

Very familiar with the term but honestly have very little knowledge of the effects. Iirc, a low AAM is more indicative of a Nina state? Maybe I should do some reading! I feel like every year I add another piece of knowledge...may this year it will be understanding AAM. By the time I’m 90 I should be able to hang with some of the other posters in here. Lol

Both the gefs and eps have shown hints at a scan ridge developing in the LR. Still a little muted in the means but some runs are more robust than others. Gefs heights at 10mb show a strengthening PV but you can start to see the squeeze/elongation. Something to watch. Maybe our first jab?

Literally just got on to post this to banter...digital snow season has started! Gfs has hinted at a pretty robust cold high in the LR.

Living vicariously through ND. That massive band there currently has got to be absolutely raging.

I thought roughly the same thing...but to my eye that ridge seems too far west to produce a mean trough anywhere east of the Mississippi. I do recall seeing a post on Twitter (can’t remember who posted) but it was an analog for fall/winter with a similar + IOD. Fall = plenty of blocking...winter = zero blocking. So many variables go into analogs than just one signal...but interesting still.

IDK...that UK forecast looks odd. Even the look in the mid lats looks off if you believe its Arctic forecast is correct. General trough signal east of the Rockies with a highly anomalous blue ball over the entire arctic?

Pretty nice outflow boundary on radar moving through NOVA. .44" so far today. Too bad it's not winter....over performing anafront pasting

PMM? Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

37 for a low this morning...actually a little frost on the edges of the roof. Today looks stellar... maybe one last dinner on the campfire tonight.

SOI continues its negative run (after a few days of pos). MJO is meandering in 8/1. Once that Aleutian trough forms in the LR...it sure is an El Niño look across the N Hem.

Great to see the QBO continue to fall. Something certainly feels different...a different regime. The constant inability to maintain higher heights where we want them seems to be changing. Still gun shy from last season but feeling positive so far. This is a good look...hopefully we get something similar late November.

I do like the propensity for blocking in Can and Greenland in the LR. We dont seem to be losing this as we head into the meat of fall....a good sign imo. Both the GEFS and EC form a pretty potent Aleutian trough toward the end of the period. Both get to this end result in basically the manner....retro the trough off the west coast and merge with another just west of the Aleutians. Out there in the very LR but good to see some agreement...maybe an early start to things as other have alluded. Love cold Novembers...just hope it doesn't morph into a warm Dec.

The big ones are sniffed out early...

Another consistent theme with the SIPS has been the continuation of current dry conditions. I have no idea the accuracy of precip predictions and assume its probably similar to looking at 2m temps months in advance. Neither 2m temps or precip anoms look correct given that look at H5. But, 850 anoms look great.... Who knows? No doubt I would take my chances with that look... Wall to wall baby!

Managed to dodge all of Thursday’s storms but recorded .50” from yesterday’s soaker. 2.38” for the month so far.

Idk...outflow is approaching leesburg. Regardless of duration...it’s certainly producing svr conditions in eastern Washington co/west Frederick co.

Imo, that storm should be warned asap. Still. Heavy rain and very electric storm here and it only appears to be strengthening. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G920A using Tapatalk

Wow! Intense storm here. .6" in about 15 minutes and one very intense gust... Estimated at about 50mph+. Best storm of the season and not even warned. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G920A using Tapatalk

From Harper's Ferry to DC Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G920A using Tapatalk

The blizzard of 83 was the first big storm that I remember. 7 years old and the snow seemed like it was up to my neck. Not in reality but that’s the way I remember it. After that storm I was hooked...snow was better when all you had was bob ryan and a noaa weather radio. You didn’t know the winter sucked until it was spring...

If we have some semblance of the SSTs posted above leading into late fall I would have a pretty good feeling....regardless of the technical enso classification. IMO, the one thing that really faked us out last winter (and all the climate models) was the SOI and MJO. The lack of response by the atmosphere to the SST was very frustrating. I recall reading late in the winter that things had finally coupled but by then it was too late. Looking at the image above it looks like trop forcing would be biased in the areas we want. Long way to go and sst can warm/cool pretty dramatically over the next 3/4 months.

Heading north on 81 between Chambersburg and Carlisle. Just missing that cell to my West. Pretty impressive looking surprised it's not warned Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G920A using Tapatalk

5.23” imby for the month of July...occurring in 6 separate days. Not bad for July. While we could use another soaker here soon, the grass, weeds and underbrush are still lush green. All of the rivers and larger creeks around the area are at the high end of summer flow levels. Perfect conditions.

Crazy to loop the 3k at high speed... What convection there is gets thrown at us from all directions in the next 60 hours. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G920A using Tapatalk

2.26" as of 7am this morning. I have been reporting to CoCoRahs using their rain gauge for a little over a year now and have a VP2 as well. I have noticed that the VP2 is consistently 10% +/- less in its reporting. Heavy rain or light rain doesnt seem to make a difference. 2.26" this morning in the manual gauge and 2.02" in the VP2.