poolz1

Not that it matters a ton but something was updated...

I saw a note on Tropical tidbits about an update to the CanSIPS. I’m not sure how long that notice had been up on the site so I decided to check it out and see if it had changed. Dec, Jan and especially Feb are stout +AO/NAO on the 0z sep 30th run.

Also note the decrease in the +IOD. Implications? No idea... Besides the warming just off the west coast I do like 1+2 remaining cold relative to the central PAC.

@Winter Wizard Looking at it, you are correct about Dec. To be honest, I went off memory which isnt a great idea these days! I probably remember it as a torch due to the mini torch just before the holidays.

Some interesting comparisons to 13/14 this Oct. The end of 2013 had a similar PDO. Slightly Neg. Also, note the similarities at H5. 2013 had a torch Dec, which some are predicting this season, but the backloaded winter made up for it. I am sure there are differences to 13/14 if one were to dig deeper into everything but I thought this was interesting.

Agreed. That block placement isn't ideal for the MA. I guess my point was that it looks like red paint will actually verify in that region instead of getting pushed/fading.

Definitely frustrating seeing that trough end up in the west. There are some positives with the pattern that opens up Nov, imo. PSU brought this up in an earlier post iirc....I will be curious if we do get periods of HLB in the NAO region if the winter wavelength produces a situation of cold highs pushing/ overrunning. Even with a neutral/-PNA. Not the pattern that was advertised a few days ago but not a total loss either. I mean, when did we see this kind of positive make it inside of D5 last year?

Hopefully a preview.... If the GEFS is correct, the MJO will have been in 8/1/2 for 40 days.

Fringed.... .12" so far. Good excuse to do nothing today.

I've tried to take a 'believe it when I see it' approach every year. It took last year for this to finally take for me. On paper it wasnt a bad winter here but the consistent fails of seasonal, long-range and med range forecasts took its toll. I admit, I have been looking at the weeklies.... On a positive note, the models did not lose the ridging in the NAO region in the med range. Both the GEFS and Euro now have a robust closed upper ridge over Greenland. GEFS have lead the way with this feature so far with the Euro now showing a closed ridge. Another common theme seems to be the Aleutian low/ N of HI. The inability to have low heights N of HI last year was frustrating.

Pretty much the exact same obs here in the creek valley.... Tomatoes and peppers just kept producing pretty well this year....those day are over now. On to winter!

Those looks on the GEFS are about as classic as it gets....Just need to rinse and repeat for the next 4 months. Cherry Pickin

Again, the GEFS is not backing down on the warming over Siberia. Its actually a pretty big reversal in temps at 10mb. From much below normal to highly anomalous warmth occurs over the course of about 7 days and continues through the end of the run. I like the elongation predicted...nosing into Canada. Also note the strengthening stops/pauses?.... Nothing Earth shattering but notable as @frd pointed out.

Good to see both models becoming more robust in the medium range with that block. This is the timeframe we usually see things start to become muted and then fade. But man, that closed ridge on the GEFS is a bute clark!

Looks like the JAMSTEC is still on our side....

Ha! Ive been back on mole patrol for the past week or so. Tried freaking everything over the years...best thing I have found are the mechanical scissor traps. Caught 2 in the past week. Nasty little suckers....

Very good point. And I wasn't necessarily disagreeing with you....It would probably take too much time/effort researching the mjo for the years you mentioned. I would like to see how it progressed as we went through winter and how much of a driver it was. 2011 also would be interesting. Im curious but with the current advertised look in the LR i'll just enjoy the cool fall weather coming and see how things progress over the next 4 weeks.

I think an argument can be made that the same tropical forcing that produces a cold east coast in the fall can create opposite results in the winter months. A phase 5/6 in Oct typically means below avg temps but roll those same phases forward and we torch. Fortunately, we are cycling through phases 1/2 with no real sign of heading toward the warmer phases....carry this forward and it will be a real positive for winter. So, maybe there is something to be said about early season cold/snow but like everything else its more complicated than just a blanket statement of early snow = winter torch.

Clearly the most anomalous cold in the NH looks to be in our neck of the woods. A heck of signal for a long range ensemble. Maybe a case of the gefs overestimating the cold...eps is similar but not as robust.

GEFS has been consistently advertising some significant warming over Siberia at 10mb. Starts around day 9 but seems to start to shove the PV towards the end of the run. I don’t expect a full on assault or anything but any temporary pauses in strengthening can only be a positive as we near the end of fall.

6” here from that one...your elevation certainly helped you out on that one I would think. That storm did a number on a huge black walnut tree we have on our property. It is one of the last trees to lose its leaves. Up to just a year or two ago we were still getting dead limbs finally falling as most of them were just snapped and hanging down.

Going to be wild ride in the LR if anything close the 12z gfs op run comes to fruition. Monster heights over Greenland. gefs agree with the look...as far as ensembles go.

The look advertised in the long range is reminiscent of 13/14... which is one of the analogs being thrown around if I'm not mistaken. Not much help in the NAO region but plenty of help on the PAC side. Although, I'll take the 06z gefs to start Dec for 800 Alex. Looking ripe.... Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

40 at the house with crazy dense fog in the very low valleys. Quite a sight with the full moon illuminating the fog....No warewolf sightings but plenty of deer. It will be a miracle if I go the next thirty days with the same bumper on the truck.