poolz1

Euro with a low over Pitt at 996mb this run. 00z had it over western OH at 998. A shift south and east with the overall track but not weaker....

12z gefs def more bullish but overall it continues the theme it has been advertising. Some pretty rapid weakening toward the end of the run.

That ridge north of HI is a little reminiscent of last last year. Looks like the GFS and Euro pretty much agree on the progression of the MJO....slowly weakening into the COD after phase 2. GEFS are a little jumpy in the LR but continue the cold look which agrees with that MJO progression.... Hard to get a good read on what that first week of Dec will feature. I'd lean GEFS just for this reason and the EPS has been playing a little catch up here lately. It doesnt happen often but sometime the GEFS lead the way....

Well, That should apply a little pressure.....lawdy

I wish there was an option to remove the color scheme sometimes....Though not a great looking pattern on that 7 day mean just looking at the height lines looks like a +PNA that reaches all the way north of AK. Washed out of course but the anomalies make it a little deceiving imo.

Posted this in the wrong thread....moving to this one. For all the peeps in here that have memories like an elephant....any of these dates interesting?

I agree with you...If you are looking at the strat for a strictly mby sport then, you are probably doing it wrong. I find it interesting though.... I do agree with some others here that I would prefer just a consistent weakening, stretching and knocking around. Other drivers, right now at least, look to generally be in our favor this season and we dont need a big split for this winter to be decent or even possibly screw up a decent pattern.

@frd I really dont have any idea....It would be interesting to see some verifications. I have only been following the strat for a few years and realize its pretty complex. Complexity means slow learning due to a current hectic life! lol

If the latest GEFS have generally the right idea (yuge IF) we get cross polar flow to open up Dec. Its all speculation of course but jumping on what Ralph said....it does seem that we may settle back into Aleutian trough, -EPO and scan ridging toward the first of Dec. A lot of things to be cautiously positive about.

Kind of surprised that vort did not stay under us that run looking at H5. Heck of a 50/50ish low with ridging up west of Hudson Bay. All caveats apply obviously... Lots of energy running around with a nice block shifting west thru GL and a ridge popping on the west coast. Hopefully we keep getting these looks on the ops.

No doubt....Also, the same model throwing out epic west based blocks at 12z. Use at your own peril I guess.

Hit 35 today but spent 19 hours below freezing. Not bad for 11/13 and no snow pack.

BWI - 36.5" DCA - 25.3" IAD - 42.8" RIC - 13.4" SBY - 16"

Check out the steam coming the "warmer" lake on traffic cam. Deep Creek... https://chart.maryland.gov/video/video.php?feed=60ffe582008000c8005bd336c4235c0a

20 With the truck dusted this morning. A nice early taste of winter...The smell of dead leaves and chimney smoke this morning gets the juices flowing for winter.

I loved 13-14....The "cold smoke" winter! 14-15 was great but I was fringed on the big storm that year. 13-14 and 09-10. Both incredibly snowy winters but two different beasts. Its a tough decision as to which one I'd prefer a repeat....I do live for the big storms and to have 3 in one season! But, constant tracking and then scoring on most of them is pretty fulfilling. Even if they were not all 12"+ events.

Had a nice mod snow shower about 45 min ago. Roof blizzard and everything! Light dusting...29/19

Odd looking returns. Same thing happening in CMD on LWX radar but def more enhanced off the bay. Wonder if there any reports of snow falling...There are a few of those returns out by me but I have clear skies.

@frd I know you have seen the chatter regarding the lack of "coupling", for lack of a better term, between the strat and trop. Any idea if there are signs of this making a connection down the road? If not, I wonder how much this all matters.... I have zero knowledge if this is a common theme sometimes when in comes to the PV or if this is an odd occurrence. I guess the fact that the SPV will weaken can only be a good thing but if we dont get that connection to the trop then, we may end up chasing our tails trying to determine its effects on sensible wx. ETA:

I agree...If we are solely basing the dec pattern on projecting the MJO, then by Dec 1st we should see the colder pattern coming on LR ens. Although, this tour of the cold phases looks very similar to the last....even down to the slower movement in 1/2. Who knows though...forecasting the MJO past a week is iffy.

GFS may be correct to moderate the cold and does have a bias toward cold in the LR. But, the euro has indicated a sub 520 several runs in a row.

Just a thought...not an expectation. Looking at the pattern relaxing just a bit in the long range with the higher heights in AK breaking down. Basically the same pattern we are in now but less anomalous. I could envision that Aleutian low pumping heights back up in AK but now we have some monster ridging in scan pushing toward the pole. If the Aleutian low plays nice you can see how a true ridge bridge could form pretty quickly and really get the pattern cranking by early Dec. EPS is close to pulling this off at the end of the run. GEFS are outside in the yard playing soccer with a football bat.

You know, I saw this tweet this morning and thought I would check it out this evening. Honestly, I would have completely forgotten about it if not for this reminder. Much appreciated!

Low to mid teens N&W Wednesday morning...around 20 in the cities. Fresh snowpack ftw...

You are definitely getting old... Lol. I'm getting old too. My teenage daughter reminds me daily! I use Twitter for weather, sports, and fishing. I have no friends on Twitter and never post. But, I follow most of the folks that frd follows and I can say that none of the Twitter posts in here from frd are from "weenies." The previous thread posted was from well educated, level-headed and reputable folks. If you follow the right people Twitter is like the weather forum for a lot of professional Mets. Not everything is meant to be gospel... Just professionals tossing out ideas and thoughts. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk