poolz1

Fair enough...A lengthy stretch of bias cooler temps has indeed netted pertty much zero. Pretty meh as a whole. Give it 12 hours and hopefully we all have a nice 1-3" blanket of white!

@frd What's interesting is the pattern depicted by the GEFS toward the end of the run is what you would expect to see as we approach a phase 8. Yet, the EPS is not too far from the GEFS... just a few days behind schedule. Not what you would expect to see as we approach a phase 6. Regarding the strat, i dont know what to think the future might hold. One common theme this season has been for a more bottom up disruption and that has worked in our favor a few times. The SPV is forecasted to be strong and I think these strat guys focus on that. Using the LR Euro just as an example...the bottom up disruption looks to continue and that's all we need for snow and cold potential.

I think we are heading there just dont know when....maybe we have some clarity in about a week when we see what the MJO wave will do. Also, consider the source (GEFS)

Heck of a band in S OH extending back to IL. Narrow but I would think there are some impressive rates falling with it. 34/20

GEFS again showing a PAC improvement toward the end of the run. Out there in fantasy land but hoping we can make this a trend....Building some serious cold in NW Canada.

Still clear skies. 36/21 Would be nice to maintain clear skies for several more hours.

The slug of moisture that will be our WAA precip is worlds away out in Kansas but...looking fairly robust on radar. Returns knocking on the door in St. Louis. Ahead of schedule by a good bit comparing 6z runs for this time.

Amazing what such a minor shift can do. I think PSU said it...it really reminds me of the storm last Dec that hammered places to our south. That little whip rotating around the 50/50 providing confluence.... Maybe this year it breaks in our favor...Would be great to start a trend today.

The euro wins even when it loses...

I agree. Who knows if its real but the euro made a move toward the gfs at 0z, imo. On another note, today is the first double digit -SOI reading since late NOV. -11.3 EPS and GEFS are not worlds apart on their MJO progressions. Hoping we see a PAC improvement start to show up in the LR here soon.

Shove that ridge in the C US up in to Hudson bay area and merge with the NAO ridge....goes bonkers and creates a stout surface high. GFS has been consistent on this type of progression...just varying run to run. Obviously not the only thing we need...50/50 holding on enough. Euro just shoves everything east in tandem...

Pretty much all frozen up to 21z for NW areas....0z for far N and NW zones.

998 over Charlestown. Home barometer reading 998.3mb This marks the 4th day since 11/20 that I have recorded a sub 1000mb reading.

I feel a NAM'n coming on at some point today.... Was hoping for a good 2-4 thump out of this but looks more like 1-2" in favored areas. Close enough to still change/juice up....

Thought it was interesting that there was only one member that had a forum wide rain event...every other member that had the storm had frozen in some part of the area. Western areas favored obviously. Didnt look at member h5 but I am curious what the snowy ones show as a lead up to the storm.

Agreed. Thats pretty much the only dif I see. Knocks heights down just enough and shoves everything east just a hair...including our 50/50.

GGEM brings the wave next week under us like the ICON....but, like the ICON not much frozen with it.

Not a flake but I'll take it...

Classic look.... That piece of the TPV that gets left in Can migrates NW just enough to allow heights to rise over HB...

GFS stronger with the block at 0z. Strengthening HP in SE Can...

Dec 2009 had a perfect track coastal rainstorm. I remember looking at the radar just feeling defeated....didnt know it would end up being the most epic winter of my life. I'll expect another epic winter if this ends up like the 18z gfs.

27/20 If precip can race north before dawn some icing def possible.

"Super" Administrator! Better shape up folks....

IF the GEFS and EPS are correct in the 12-15 it sure looks like things are primed. Jet is getting ready to cut under the HL blocking and connect to the ATL trough. Maybe a very classic ATL look in toward the end of the month? All speculation of course based on LR ens...so there's that. Not that things are boring right now but man if we can get a progression like that this place will be rocking.

The gfs has been steadfast with the D9-10. The op is going to play its usual games but the main players are there every run. This run it decided to put a piece of the TPV under the block and wreck things....