poolz1

Couldnt agree more....I would be more than happy to do away with having to add caveats, grains of salt, etc...

Finally an op run that somewhat resembles the idea of blocking returning in the LR. Obviously, not to be taken literally but this is how the current period of blocking started to be advertised....

Basically from 900mb to the surface is above freezing. Would need to be a thump/convective or start to trend just a bit colder...3 or 4 degrees would do the trick for most.

yeah...would love to see what is predicted below 50 also. As it is, 50mb is on fire over the pole.....

Dec 5th coming in hot!

No matter how this euro run turns out it has certainly made moves toward today's trend. Ridging nosing across southern Can...

GFS has 3 sub 990 coastal storms during the forecast cycle....and a 4th that is just too far off shore to count. Lets keep this repetition going....

Darn close to a CMD pummeling...

My thoughts exactly...baby steps each run with that ridge near Hudson Bay. Keeps nosing east and holding longer each run...

Great analysis, showme....good morning coffee reading material. Interesting looping the GEFS and watching the low heights contract to the HL and then dissolve toward the end of the run and lower heights appear to be on their way back to the Mid Lats. Another positive result of that vortex potentially splitting is the ridging response in the Kara sea region. Muted now but combined with an epo ridge can send the AO downhill in a hurry and would be obviously a very cold signal....just in time for the holiday run up!

I was wondering if that band south of Harrisburg was snow or mix....def some wet flakes falling on I83 traffic cams. .81" overnight. 36f

I thought it was interesting that slp actually developes over ATL --> C NC --> VA capes to 977 over ACY. Not much difference in surface track from 12z just stronger reflection along the way. Shove that ull and the primary south and we could have slp forming in the northern gulf. Wishful thinking based on a happy hour run I guess....

Stronger 50/50 and west based block holding longer/stronger. Thats one heck of an ULL coming out of Cali...Fun to think of the possibilities I have to admit.

3 strong closed lows pass over/under us in 4 days....I'm sure the gfs has this figured out.

What are the chances we can get that ull under us next weekend?HH gives hope...as usual

As others have noted...the first 15 days of Dec '13 look pretty much identical to what is being advertised on the gefs in the LR. There is one exception IMO...of course this idea is all dependent on the GEFS being correct in LR. As Dec 13 rolled forward the WAR became a big player in our weather. Currently the GEFS does not have much of a WAR and what pos height it does have is more of a muted SE ridge that extends southward from Bermuda to the eastern Gulf. I would think this should provide more energy/juice with it's return flow and thus aiding the STJ and what would normally be relatively moisture starved systems and enhancing overrunning situations. Nothing to block the flow and create slow moving KUs but maybe something more than just quick hitting moisture starved systems we are used to with EPO driven patterns. So many ways for this pattern to morph as we move forward into the first half of Dec but, imo there are more options for a positive outcome than options for a shutout pattern to develop.

Welp, that was a wrong assessment of the sat. Nothing but clouds.

Looks like some clearing moving in from the west. Hoping it times it just right...

I tend to forget how a stout west based block can create havoc....Its only on paper right now but its a sight for sore eyes after the past few years..

12z GFS op puts into question the storm to open up Dec being a big cutter. Much dif h5 look...not surprisingly being a D9 op run but I think it shows how tough that time period will be for models to predict.

Who knows if the GEFS is on to something? All caveats obviously but man....what a weenie run. Similar to the EPS but the -EPO at the end of the run is bonkers...

18z Gefs with a stout -NAO at D10....50/50 is perfect....ridge starting to push into NW Can/AK. Dec 3-5th looking better and better...

@frd Yes, that is certainly the look we have been used to. According to HM this look has been anticipated and is also anticipated to change to the more classic look that the Gefs is advertising. Maybe a case of the gefs rushing the pattern again but right now HM seems to be on a roll with his predictions. At least the blah pattern coming up will give us plenty of time to micro analyze each LR run! Lol

Love the look up top but also really nice to see that Aleutian low become established again. EPS is not as enthusiastic about that feature....wait and see.

Both the GEFS and the EPS pretty much agree with their own MJO forecast in the LR. MJO on both models has been changing quite a bit over the past few days...just like the advertised H5 look over NA. EPS likes a reemergence in phase 2 while the GEFS like phase 8/1. SOI with another -27.36 today...same exact # as yesterday. That doesnt happen too often.....