poolz1

It seems that models are waffling on how much energy is pulled out of the southern piece. Slight changes are the dif between snow tv, coating-2" or a nice 2-4/3-6... To add to PSU's post above....

@frd Things definitely look to be shifting around. The stagnant +heights and +temp anoms at 50mb over N Canada looks to get shoved east. I really have no idea what to expect but check this out...certainly fantasy range but the FV3 has been hinting at a new warming at the end of the run. Looks to originate in Northern Africa...same place this current warming started. Wait and see if it has legs.

Both the GEFS and GEPS have the Aleutian low in a nice position to push that western trough east. Looks similar to the progression we have seen several times this season. I do like that we are seeing these looks with the MJO fading into the COD after a phase 3/4. Right now at least, the progression looks to be heading for 7/8 as we near the holidays.

Destined to change, waffle and morph but the uptick compared to 12z is notable.

Yeah man...I’d say it was a very nice uptick in legit hits.

I thought the exact same thing when we were seeing those nice ATL blocking looks in Nov. If it's a recurring theme, late Dec--->Jan would be the timeframe for it's return.

The -NAO in late Nov was from a retrograding scand ridge. I dont know how frequent that particular evolution occurs compared to other ways. If I'm no mistaken it tends to be more durable....not all the time but typically, imo.

Yeah....not a crush job or anything but would get most on the board. Would be a nice start to the season and more proof Dec is not going as planned for many forecasts and seasonal models.

Yep...that'll do. 13-14 style....

Euro def holding back more energy for a follow up wave....

Similar to yesterday's 12z EC run....this run leaves a piece behind.

Yeah, GGEM has been hinting the last several runs. It really is amazing how many of these we scored in 13/14....such a touchy way to get snow. So many things can go wrong quick....more than usual. But, this is about the timeframe those systems started showing up on models in those years....maybe more around the D5-6 timeframe.

18z gefs leaves the door open for a follow up wave D7-8. A long shot but currently the lowest hanging fruit...

Looks like the euro and gfs ops are focused on two different systems for the D9 system. Euro takes the ull off the west coast (hr 72) and leaves behind a piece. That system traverses the south and becomes our storm. GFS absorbs that ull into the main trough that is the cutter several days before. But, the gfs brings in a totally dif ull into cali and this eventually becomes our storm. I like the euro idea better as it is faster and more likely to catch the cold...but it falls right into the old euro bias. If that is still a thing?

I guess I am a little confused...which doesnt take much. I thought that the +IOD and resulting standing wave is what is keeping the MJO from rolling through the warm phases? Doesnt this keep convection in 1/2. Once the standing relaxes...what is expected?

Both gefs and especially the eps have some weak +heights over Greenland just 2 days before this D10ish potential. As jumpy as models are with predicting the NAO domain it remains a big wildcard imo. A delay in breaking this ridge down or maybe it’s stronger to begin with? Possibly the epo ridge extends into the NAO region. Either could force the TPV to be more of a block than modeled. Probably still a west track but maybe an earlier transfer. Will be interesting to see how things trend with the orientation of the epo ridge and any +heights over GL.

12z GFS with an EPO ridge on roids the entire run. ETA: Bob with a better description..and graphics! lol

That post by Webb is a prime example of why trusting ensembles right now past D10 is risky. In 4 days it goes from CONUS torch/Pac flood to a nasty Arctic outbreak.

@frd Some positive signs amongst the muddy waters, imo. The propensity for HLB so far has been decent. Nothing sustained.....yet. Aleutian low seems to want to keep forming. No shortage of closed lows traversing the country. No red flags with the strat and if anything signs are positive. I know others have mentioned the MJO and the struggle models are having with it. I think once we get to mid Dec we will see the MJO stopping its flirt with phase 3 and circle back to 8/1. +IOD is coming down but SSTs still showing it plainly...it will have its say. Feeling pretty positive about late Dec and Jan....Though, I feel pretty positive every time before I play golf. Not so much once back to the clubhouse!

It has been a bit of a trend today for the D8-10 period. GFS increases blocking again at 18z and shoves the Canadian vortex south into the N plains. Looks to roll east from there. Lets kick the closed low out of Cali and attack that arctic high!

Latest HRRRRRRR has a nice burst of snow across MD pre-dawn tomorrow. Most models now show that slug of precip developing...

Was just going to say the same thing....heavier precip right on the MD line now. I may be too far west but you and folks NE could be in for a surprise. Elevation will def help...

06z euro came in much colder for the WAA precip. Major icing just over the MD line...some place in southern PA went from mid 30s 00z to upper 20s. NAM following along with slightly colder sfc temps than previous run.... Off to stuff myself...Happy Thanksgiving!

Looks like we may need to get through a few days to get any king of handle on what the LR will look like. A lot of spread on the EPS.... AO Check of the spread on the EPO...Could be +4 or could be -6....

18z gfs with the same strong closed ridge over the pole that both the 12z op and ens had. Moves in by day 7/8....looks more robust and has staying power this run. Would be a nice trend..