poolz1

I agree. Who knows if its real but the euro made a move toward the gfs at 0z, imo. On another note, today is the first double digit -SOI reading since late NOV. -11.3 EPS and GEFS are not worlds apart on their MJO progressions. Hoping we see a PAC improvement start to show up in the LR here soon.

Shove that ridge in the C US up in to Hudson bay area and merge with the NAO ridge....goes bonkers and creates a stout surface high. GFS has been consistent on this type of progression...just varying run to run. Obviously not the only thing we need...50/50 holding on enough. Euro just shoves everything east in tandem...

Pretty much all frozen up to 21z for NW areas....0z for far N and NW zones.

998 over Charlestown. Home barometer reading 998.3mb This marks the 4th day since 11/20 that I have recorded a sub 1000mb reading.

I feel a NAM'n coming on at some point today.... Was hoping for a good 2-4 thump out of this but looks more like 1-2" in favored areas. Close enough to still change/juice up....

Thought it was interesting that there was only one member that had a forum wide rain event...every other member that had the storm had frozen in some part of the area. Western areas favored obviously. Didnt look at member h5 but I am curious what the snowy ones show as a lead up to the storm.

Agreed. Thats pretty much the only dif I see. Knocks heights down just enough and shoves everything east just a hair...including our 50/50.

GGEM brings the wave next week under us like the ICON....but, like the ICON not much frozen with it.

Not a flake but I'll take it...

Classic look.... That piece of the TPV that gets left in Can migrates NW just enough to allow heights to rise over HB...

GFS stronger with the block at 0z. Strengthening HP in SE Can...

Dec 2009 had a perfect track coastal rainstorm. I remember looking at the radar just feeling defeated....didnt know it would end up being the most epic winter of my life. I'll expect another epic winter if this ends up like the 18z gfs.

27/20 If precip can race north before dawn some icing def possible.

"Super" Administrator! Better shape up folks....

IF the GEFS and EPS are correct in the 12-15 it sure looks like things are primed. Jet is getting ready to cut under the HL blocking and connect to the ATL trough. Maybe a very classic ATL look in toward the end of the month? All speculation of course based on LR ens...so there's that. Not that things are boring right now but man if we can get a progression like that this place will be rocking.

The gfs has been steadfast with the D9-10. The op is going to play its usual games but the main players are there every run. This run it decided to put a piece of the TPV under the block and wreck things....

Right in the slot (insert Micheal Scott joke)

Agreed Loseto. This is our long track once blocking gets established.

Have a few mangled flakes mixing in here just to your west....38

GEFS def liking this period (D10-12) more than 12z. Not bad...

850's making their way into C MD...925's very close behind. 44 right now after a high of 53.

After a very slow but steady temp rise from this morning...finally seeing a steady drop now. Lost 2 degrees in the past 30 min. Got a ways to go...currently 51

No doubt about that. There are a ton of great posters all over American but this thread is packed with great insights. You dont have to sift through 50 memory lane posts about a storm in 1967...lol

Gfs'd'ed'did

I dont disagree that we may have a milder stretch coming up but the last 30 days have been below normal east of the MIss river. Fairly persistent since Nov turned colder. We just had this same discussion a week ago when models were showing a crap pattern in the 10-15 and then the EPO ridge started showing up and now we are tracking an event. Models will waffle with the MJO passing through the COD and remain volatile in the LR, imo. The PV strengthening over the pole is a concern but an MJO that pushes into another 8/1/2 progression, combined with the background state we have already experienced I still think things look positive for later in Dec. If anything...it's not an uninteresting season so far. No consensus is kind of nice after last year....