poolz1

Not a bad look on the ensemble...workable and an improvement over 0z

Today's SOI is another negative at -8.46. Nothing earth shattering but if the gefs is correct this looks to continue and possibly some bigger neg values are on the way in the not to distant future. GEFS also indicating a phase 7/8 precip pattern in the PAC. If correct, we should see the LR start to hone in on a better PAC look I would think. Though, admittedly, I dont know how the IOD and the preip in the western IO will affect/mute this...if at all.

Ha! We are pretty much lockstep here lately. 14.8 here....coldest of the season as well.

Might be more of a banter post but since we dont have anything to track why not swing for the fences? Just thought this was interesting when I saw the 18z gfs storm at the end of the run. 18z GFS left, 12z EPS right.

No doubt...it's pretty liberating isn't it? We cut the cord a little over a year ago and havent looked back. We actually kept our local channels through Direct TV because they offered me 19.99/mo for a year. Then upped it to $60/mo....lol. That was the last straw and they wouldn't budge on it. Nothing makes me happier than to not send Direct TV another dime.

Agreed. Def a nino look. I thought the same thing when I saw the EPS temp profile in the LR. I'm ok with giving the Atl a go at it....we've seen what a straight Pac driven pattern can do for the past, what, 10 years?

Agreed. But having to punt the last 10 days of Dec (most likely) and now the prospect of punting the first week+ of Jan will ruffle feathers. I really dont doubt that we enter a favorable pac forcing regime but I was hoping that we would roll right past the warm phases. Still an option, like you said, LR MJO forecasts are very much subject to change.

Same here. Mod snow shower ongoing....nice fluffy dendrites with a good coating so far. Gusty WNW wind has it feeling like deep winter if only for 30 minutes or so. 29/21

32 with off and on flurries/light snow showers. Curious to see how this band sinking south of Pitt holds together. Snow squall warning just issued.

Battle lines are drawn between the GEFS and EPS. GEFS doubles down on a pretty good pattern and EPS doubles down on its anti -EPO stance. Probably a good time to step away for a few days and enjoy the holiday season....Not going to happen but its a good time to do it. lol

One of these 50/50 lows will break the mold I would think. It's the most stable feature on ops and ens. With that feature maybe we can get a trackable event during 8-12 days. I know others have mentioned this timeframe. Stick a stubborn high in se Can long enough in prime climo....even if its a meh pattern overall.

Took this around 1pm at the top of Gathland State Park...just west of Burkittsville. A little spooky looking up there...

1.7" measured a few minutes ago. Will probably be the final total....radar looks spotty and mixing is edging closer. A nice wintry scene outside tho....

If we can time the EPO ridge with a pushing scan ridge we could weaken the TPV and shove it pretty quickly into a favorable location. May lose the ATl for a period (maybe not completely) as the scan ridge develops and pushes but....short term pain.

1.5" Exact same obs as WVclimo.... Might be able to squeak out another .5"

Looking at traffic cams it seems that this may be the leading edge of flakes hitting the ground.

Fair enough...A lengthy stretch of bias cooler temps has indeed netted pertty much zero. Pretty meh as a whole. Give it 12 hours and hopefully we all have a nice 1-3" blanket of white!

@frd What's interesting is the pattern depicted by the GEFS toward the end of the run is what you would expect to see as we approach a phase 8. Yet, the EPS is not too far from the GEFS... just a few days behind schedule. Not what you would expect to see as we approach a phase 6. Regarding the strat, i dont know what to think the future might hold. One common theme this season has been for a more bottom up disruption and that has worked in our favor a few times. The SPV is forecasted to be strong and I think these strat guys focus on that. Using the LR Euro just as an example...the bottom up disruption looks to continue and that's all we need for snow and cold potential.

I think we are heading there just dont know when....maybe we have some clarity in about a week when we see what the MJO wave will do. Also, consider the source (GEFS)

Heck of a band in S OH extending back to IL. Narrow but I would think there are some impressive rates falling with it. 34/20

GEFS again showing a PAC improvement toward the end of the run. Out there in fantasy land but hoping we can make this a trend....Building some serious cold in NW Canada.

Still clear skies. 36/21 Would be nice to maintain clear skies for several more hours.

The slug of moisture that will be our WAA precip is worlds away out in Kansas but...looking fairly robust on radar. Returns knocking on the door in St. Louis. Ahead of schedule by a good bit comparing 6z runs for this time.

Amazing what such a minor shift can do. I think PSU said it...it really reminds me of the storm last Dec that hammered places to our south. That little whip rotating around the 50/50 providing confluence.... Maybe this year it breaks in our favor...Would be great to start a trend today.

The euro wins even when it loses...