poolz1

06z euro with a slightly slower progression as well....Pretty consistent the last few runs for a 2-3" region-wide rain maker. Novice question....do you, or anyone, have any resources you can point me towards to help me understand how to assess the risk of severe from a sounding and other parameters? I do understand the basics but the more I become interested in severe and heavy rains the more complex it seems compared to winter weather. Never thought I would become interested in severe...but, it seems to have grown on me.

Any potential for wed night/thurs? Looks like the 3k has a nasty line coming through WV around midnight....some training looks possible with the slow eastward push.

Looks like a bit of rotation just south of Burkittsville md....I swear that area gets spin ups all the time.

Not really...a good thunderstorm with all the ingredients except for the wind...30-35mph maybe with the storm.

Constant thunder to the west... Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

Really surprised at the temp jump...clouds have moved back in. Capped at 74.8 for now.

Up to 73....feels ripe outside

Look like its on a beeline for @WVclimo

Those cells are finally showing some life coming out of WV...Feeding off that break in the clouds?

Full sun here now...plenty of blue skies to my west. Temp rising quick with the sun out...up 2 degrees in the past 15 minutes. 64.9

Just lost a large cedar tree in the yard...the wind roared just as the precip was ending.

Funny, I was up last night and saw your post....I actually thought about it on the way into the office this morning. I'm curious also....the thunder was crazy at our house. Could hail deflect sound if the situation is just right?

Almost 10 days out...I am fine with the gfs. It seems to be making baby steps each run in the right direction. We have gotten rid of the GL low that was on earlier runs and now made a move toward more HP in SE Can.

Yeah....Either the gfs is up to its usual games or the idea of blocking in that region is just being picked up on again as we get closer. H180 is even more robust...

Most, if not all frozen...

06z EPS with another incremental nudge in the right direction...A tick slower so will have to keep an eye on that trend as well. 06/00z

yeah...much better CAD signal....stronger high that holds on longer. The clown maps are misleading I think because it slowed things down just a bit and the run ends at 144...as you noted.

GFS not backing down on the mega NAO block as we near D10. A sight to see for sure.....

Got it...much appreciated. So, in determining the general idea of where the split flow is....flowing, you are looking for where the height lines deviate from that uniform look?

Curious...whats your take on the 06z GEFS? Same timeframe....with a more robust signal cutting under the ridge.

I know PSU and Bob have mentioned this several times..But that look at the end of the EPS run with the bagginess off the west coast and a signal that the STJ is undercutting the PNA ridge is money. LR caveats and all...but man that is a nice look.

06z gfs goes bonkers over GL....Seems we are getting some consensus on a stout NAO block that fades into an EPO ridge. But, it could just end up being a ridge bridge longer than what is currently depicted. Also notice a nice uptick in hits as the the NAO fades and EPO takes over. The looks across the board have me drooling! ETA: Trough axis on the LR EPS is sweet. Starts at hr300 and hold through the end of the run.

Little bit of a CAD in that image! Check out the ridging across GL at the same time...

EPS at range looks great for pressing cold and not overwhelming cold. I could care less if the bay freezes over. Nice to see HP in western Can that seems to just linger while nosing SE. GEFS has pretty much the same look.

Looking at the EPS D10-15 members...a lot of slow moving arctic fronts with waves moving riding the fronts. Some we win and some we dont. Obviously, ens arent going to pick up on a threat like they would if we had a miller A out of the gulf. Again, reminiscent of 14/15.