poolz1

Nice mod snow shower currently. Beautiful outside this morning.

Always procrastinate taking down the Xmas lights hoping to see them in the snow. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

Finished with 3" on the nose. Like you, that last band was nice... But brief. Temp dropped and nice dendrites for about 30 minutes was the push I needed. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

Another localized phenomenon here is the effect that S Mtn has a rain shadow. Its not all of the time but the right SEish wind does dry things out just a bit. I often tell my wife if we hit the lottery we are tearing that mountain down....lol.

475' give or take. .5 miles in either direction elevation is around 550+. Little Antietam Creek flows through our back yard so, its a very localized thing that I have seen many times. It doesnt surprise me you have 4 otg. Once the snow kicked into gear it was heavy for about 45 minutes and then went to mod and at times light for the remainder. Didnt get into anything heavy after the start.

Very nice! Just measured 2.6"....I would assume once you go up just a bit in elevation around me there is probably 3-3.5".

A nice heavy burst to start but back to lt/mod snow currently. Solid coating so far. 33/30

Radar looks like it will start to light up once east of the mountains. Waiting for the 11am update but quite the uptick between 9am and 10am.

Nice seeing storm tracks show up in the precip on RadarScope in SW WV and KY. Radar looks a bit more robust this morning than I expected....

27/23 when I left the house. Mostly cloudy. Will be fun watching I81 traffic cams as the thump moves up from the SW.

Trend so far has been to juice things up just a bit...every bit counts. Though, speed and temps put a ceiling on this it would be nice to see the trend continue. HeRDerPS joins the trend.

Not a bad trend as far as temps go as precip moves in. Could be partially due to the slightly faster onset the euro has at 06z but the panels before show the same trend. The key imo is having the cloud deck already established near or shortly after sunrise....May be tough with such a compact system and this not being an overrunning event. The further WSW you are the better.

Can't seem to get the scan ridge to move ploeward on most op and ens runs.... But, the gfs gets the pattern out of the crapper through retrogression of the PAC ridge. Only reason it is notable imo is the eps showed this as well at 12z. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

@frd Ive been watch that evolution the past few days on the GEFS. If anything, the PV will be no longer stationary....makes a pretty drastic move and stretches somewhat past D10. Not moving too far away from the pole yet on those looks but I am just happy to see something...anything not remain stagnant in the LR. Euro looks to be in agreement thru D10 at least.

I make that my back way to/from work in situations like this. lol While the creak valley has a slushy inch there can be 2-3" up there. A temporary soul soother. It's too bad this didnt move in just before sunrise. Euro has temps in the mid 20s at 7am but 40 by 10am. Maybe a thick cloud deck at sunrise will play out and temps struggle to rise much...long shot imo.

Exactly...even out here I can see how this plays out. Without elevation any accumulation will be in the last hour or two of snow falling....= slushy inch or so on non paved surfaces. Only chance lower elevations have is if this juices up some as we we approach game time. .2" qpf only works if it's cold smoke...

One mid range trend lately is the higher heights over the pole that have been trending stronger. This may give merit to the GEFS idea of a quicker transition as it already has the TPV out of the way when the PAC and or Scan ridge start moving poleward. As amplified as the flow has been so far this cold season it could get fun with cold closer to our doorstep. I dont need epic...just get us back in the hunt.

No event really stands out to me in MBY this year. A few snowstorms, a few good thunder busters, some cold....some heat. What I really noted was what didnt happen this year compared to many recent years. This Spring, Summer and Fall were great for outdoor recreation. Being an avid hiker, camper and especially loving kayak fishing, this spring was the first in many years that the rivers and tributaries were in good fishing shape by mid April. The past few years I havent been on the water before Memorial Day due to the rivers still being trashed by heavy rains. Even the Susquehanna was in great shape by early summer....getting that river to calm down and clear up is a sloooooow process.

06z Euro with another step in the right direction. Stronger vort with a slightly stronger low close to the S NJ coastline. Would be great to back our way into a minor event....maybe more than minor for places closer to coast...

I think you are probably correct....even neutral may have a better response. I have a lot to learn in this hobby but these types of small details are probably my weakest area. Need to work on my ball of knowledge!

The nice looking vort pass has been there for several runs now for the D4-5 timeframe. The euro did pop a weak surface low this run and some light precip resulted. Just curious what is keeping a stronger low at the surface from forming...normally I would be excited for a panel like this but models have been pretty adamant with really zero surface response. Is it the lack of separation between the SLP off the NE coast and the closed upper low sliding under us?

I hear you...and I appreciate your last few posts and the time/effort you put into the research. I dont disagree with anything you said and the Pac ridge is a dagger without help elsewhere but from my perspective it comes as no surprise if the MJO is going right into the warm phases. Not that I saw that happening...I actually thought we had a good chance at cold phases for Jan. I understand the MJO is not the be all and end all but the Pac is responding just as it did last year to the unfavorable tropical forcing. So, with that said the only thing I might have an issue with is describing the upcoming pattern as a base state....seems like this year has no base state, imo. The silver lining here is that I think we are primed for a rapid response if we can get into the cold phases...as you noted, with the low solar, fav QBO and already seeing bouts of HLB this season. With the warm phases hopefully doing their work to disrupt the PV I think we could see that Pac ridge move east around week 3/4. Going to be a rough couple of weeks...or more. But nothing new to a MA snow lover.

The ridging across N Can started showing up on ens a runs ago and ops now have it...seems to gaining some legs. Could open up a nice window as it forces the TPV under it. This GFS run the TPV turn on it's belly creating a nice broad trough. Who knows how it will eventually play out but could even block something that amplifies.

This is a 7 day mean for the first week of Jan...A notable feature throughout the GFS and the GEFS is the trough east of HI. Maybe this could send periodic shots of a west coast ridge even while the HLs are extremely hostile. With the active flow and cold very nearby maybe we can get something to dig under us at the right time. Hints of this on today's runs.

The only thing good about today's MJO plot is that the models have been pretty bad with the LR forecasted phase....Both the GEFS and EPS take it back to the warm phases or heading toward them after a brief visit with phase 7. It's been the most ambiguous season so far in terms of main drivers...besides the +IOD i guess. I have no idea where the LR is heading...neither do the models and neither do the mets I follow/read.