poolz1

Ah...thanks. Just assumed 12z was out already.

Canadian dangling the carrot as well...

Think I am going to go ahead and move on to the D15.5 threat. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

Good coffee reading Showme....06 op with the same increase in confluence that the euro and CMC have for the D10 period. Looks like the ULL coming out is going to be a certainty....hopefully the fluke ingredient we need continues to trend in the right direction. I dont care if we have to back our way in, side step, moonwalk or whatever into this...The need for snow is an odd craving....

Just my opinion but IF the advertised changes to the status quo are real, then there needs to be a fairly significant signal elsewhere to force that change. The location of trop forcing is the only thing forecast to change. The PV remains a beast through the period and without a significant counter a continuation of the current zonal regime should be the default. I think its a case of either we get the MJO to cooperate and we see a 1-2wk period of a workable pattern or we see the LR changes up top just slowly morph back into another slight variation of the pattern we are in now.

Who know if the GEFS is correct in the LR but it seems pretty consistent with maintaining a trough between HI and Cali....troughs are going to have a hard time settling in the west if that feature is real. A pretty nice look this run in the LR, imo. A little bit of a kick the can deal as the nice looks dont start until D12 but it certainly did not continue degrading this run.

My guess is we will see the MJO forecast today back off with its idea of a charge into 8 on the GEFS. Yesterday hinted at that idea. SOI with a stronger neg today at -17...so there's that. Yeah, if this is another head fake we might just put a fork in it....cant afford open up March and have to wait another two weeks for things to right themselves. Bass will be coming out of their slumber by then.

Not a total rarity but the that op image above at least looks very similar to the 12 GEFS. The change up top starts its evolution by D10-11....would be great to see this continue to move forward in time. So far so good...cant help but be gun shy tho.

Pretty much what Ralph said...It would at least give an opportunity for it to attack the cold before moving out.

LR icon ejecting energy out of the Rockies at the end of it's run....will have to see if this is a 12z trend.

@frd I know it is a rough winter when I forget to check the latest ens runs.... in Feb. The ONLY good thing about a winter like we have experienced so far is I really dont care at this point! lol It is kind of nice tbh. I wont hand-wring about it is what I mean. With that said, and goes along with your post above, we finally have a double digit neg SOI today. With the seasonal jet changing as we approach March, a possible window of favorable trop forcing and models picking up on the possible changes I am more hopeful than I have been in quite a while. My hope is the first 2 weeks in March offer some chances...before then we are still in fluke mode, imo.

Slowly coming out of my 2020 mud season depression. We have been teased quite a bit with projected changes up top that morph into the same old same old. But, those looks always flew in the face of the projected MJO phases. As we approach March it is looking increasingly likely we either go full bore into a favorable trop forcing regime or at least at low amplitude. All caveats with MJO forecasts and all but if projections remain the same we should not expect a rinse and repeat of the past 45 days. It is tough not expect the same but this time changes up top may have more validity than what we have experienced so far. I am resigned to the fact that this winter will go down as abysmal. I just want one good snow to sooth the soul before spring hits....

Hardly a cloud in the sky....current pressure 999.3mb. Must be in the eye...

GFS op runs have been pretty relentless in signaling a decent HL look starting around D7 and progressing. Ens dont seem to be jumping completely on board yet but it is nice to finally see a HP in SE can locked in for more than 36 hours. Fluke hunting....

Woke up to 1.64" in the gauge and a roaring creek....actually, the highest it's been since a minor flash flood over the summer.

I'm sure if we had the ability to draw it up things may look quite a bit different....but for now, this will do.

Looks like we need some dynamics to score anything in these marginal air masses unless something is timed perfectly. 12z Euro would have been a paste job if closer to the coast.....imo.

I thought the euro was close to a MD line event....especially the higher spots. Wouldn't take a huge shift to get an accumulation along the N counties....or could just go the other way and put a fork in it.

What background state?

18z euro is a bit further south with the ull and flow is a bit flatter on the EC....only thru 90 hours and probably wouldn't be enough to make a huge different but the bleeding temporarily stopped this run.

Come on...we've got a 5 day gfs sounding and a h84 nam with a ull over N Arkansas. What more do you want?

If models were showing some weak surface low forming and racing out it would be one thing...Maybe a long shot but with something like this on the table it's worth following.

GFS at 0z had the ull over Chicago....12z over paducah ky

00z gfs says bowling ball season starts early this year....Hopefully a foot of mashed potatoes comes along with it.

Holding steady at 31.3. Pretty windy at times...had a few nice gusts accompanied by a burst of sleet/frz rain. Maybe the wind has helped keep temps just below freezing.