@frd I know it is a rough winter when I forget to check the latest ens runs.... in Feb. The ONLY good thing about a winter like we have experienced so far is I really dont care at this point! lol It is kind of nice tbh. I wont hand-wring about it is what I mean.
With that said, and goes along with your post above, we finally have a double digit neg SOI today. With the seasonal jet changing as we approach March, a possible window of favorable trop forcing and models picking up on the possible changes I am more hopeful than I have been in quite a while. My hope is the first 2 weeks in March offer some chances...before then we are still in fluke mode, imo.