poolz1

If it happens I say we officially dub this the @frd storm. lol! j/k

GFS a little further south with the SE Canada trough....maybe enough to deliver a little cold before it wraps up? A possible trend to watch... ETA: CMC with the same trend...just not going to be enough to get it done as it looks now. A nice cold high would be just what the doc ordered.

35 and a few nice bursts of snow this morning. Looks like one more to move through...so close to a car topper here.

I certainly could be wrong here but it seems like there was some hinting at the MJO wave gaining some minor/modest amplitude the past few days. The LR h5 look seemed to be hinting at what we would expect with warm phases. Yesterday and today, the MJO forecast is very muted and mainly resides in the COD and the LR is now looking stellar again. Just a guess....

Today's forecast just made the waters muddier. Most of the time is spent in the COD if emerging at all....interesting that without influence from tropical forcing, models have a serviceable pattern. I think we are all just waiting for the inevitable return of the NPAC ridge... Then again, maybe we keep this ball rolling a find we have several decent pattern periods throughout winter.

CAPE's epo ridge going strong on the LR GEFS..... Time to go fill up on carbs!

Obviously, every hour into the future a model runs the less skill it has. 15 day ens runs are good for general ideas, imo. Just like snow means, and members...useful if used correctly. No doubt though, beyond day 10 is the general ballpark range...which is why I said I'd like to see it move forward in time....

End of the GEFS run looks mighty tasty.. Hoping to see that look move forward in time....Lets get some decent cold into the pattern so we can have our own digital historic storms.

Nice to see the ops showing a shuffle in the LR....certainly looking more likely we see a nice west coast ridge. Could go poof in the next few runs like we have seen so many times but if its gonna happen the ops should be picking up on it. 12z gfs continues this idea...just a different interpretation each run.

BWI: 17.5" DCA: 11" IAD: 20.5" RIC: 5.5" SBY: 11"

A product of a +PNA after a several weeks long stint of any cold source being choked off....need some EPO help. Both the GEFS and CFS show a weakening of the SPV around the 20th of Dec. Granted, this predicted weakening is just more of comedown off its high and more toward the ERA5 mean but a weakening nonetheless. The idea of a developing PNA and then more importantly -EPO would make sense in order to start throwing some jabs at the PV.

Hit 22 for a low but it was 32 when I left the house at 530 this morning.

Flurries, 34 with a stiff breeze. Definitely a wintry feel outside...

There we go! Getting very dark to the west..wind is kicking..

1.36" so far here. Muggy tropical feel this afternoon with several torrential downpours.

I saw a D10 -NAO start to show up....beautiful 50/50. But yea, the entire NH sucks other than that little straw grasping tidbit.

Maybe some small glimmers of hope on the ATL side as we get later in Nov but the Pac crap looks pretty darn stable. There does seem to be agreement with a fairly stable 50/50ish low in the LR. Cant imagine the 35 day GEFS have much use but when every member shows a very strong PV you have to think its on to something. CFSv2 shows much more spread but certainly leans in the GEFS direction.

Lol... Looks like I caught a shot of the first burst just south of Fred Co.

The Mothership has arrived! I'm not a big cloud Guru but this was pretty impressive. Only cloud in the sky at the moment. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

Scattered flurries. 36 Looks like another batch on radar slipping SW of HGR.

Agreed. I dont see how we avoid significant bouts of a very unfavorable pac.... We'll be constantly teased with models showing an eastward progression of the MJO and therefore a better looking long range signal in the Pac. At least in this weenie mind, trying to find a silver lining, the 2 main features that seem to stick around on ensembles are the low heights west of the Aleutians and the higher heights in the Scan region. If we can maintain the features somewhat, maybe we can periodically offset what will be occurring in the Pac. Keeping the PV in check and giving us bouts of HLB. As the MJO tries to push into more fav areas, dies and then reemerges over unfavorable areas....these occurrences may be our windows of opportunity this winter? Or, maybe nothing works out as planned (like last year) and we end up with these looks on the regular!

GFS finally coming around to a wetter solution.... A nice temp gradient setting up thursday afternoon as well. Mid/upper 40s for MD Line and pushing 80 in RIC

06z euro has 2"+ amounts by late thursday evening with plenty more to go....00z UK with a broad area of 3"+ for the region. WPC 2"+... Will be interesting to see how things evolve with a large HP pressure pushing in as Zeta and the ULL work in tandem to flood the east with plenty of moisture.

I thought the EPS showed some glimmers of things trending the right way as we near the middle of Nov. Maybe starting with the Pac....all caveats, obviously. I am willing to kick the can a little down the road with any decent pattern. If we truly end up with a front loaded winter...I dont want to waste our only HLB on mid/late Nov.

The AO and NAO have been negative for roughly the past two weeks and this was telegraphed nicely by the ens, imo. Neither the GEFS nor the EPS are forecasting any HLB for the foreseeable future. Not arguing the fact that phantom blocking periods have not been an issue the past year+ but I dont think we can say the same yet for this cold season. Head fakes and magnitude issues are always going to happen with LR ens guidance.