poolz1
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Everything posted by poolz1
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Good looks showing up on the gfs op near as we approach x-mas
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Man, you are probably in a good spot for this one....what's your elevation there?
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Going to be a game time/obs situation regardless of what mesos spit out today. Lack of cloud cover tonight will be key to drop boundary layer temps so there is not so much ground to make up tomorrow. Elevation...rates all a factor to make it almost impossible to pin down. With that said...12z nams juicing up and say a surprise for some may be on the way..
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Off the current topic... Can ens, GEFS and EPS have the same general look in the LR. Some potential help on the PAC side while maintaining a favorable ATL. Looks like we will have chances for the foreseeable future... In the med range, it looks like the blocking regime on the ATL side flexes again right around x-mas and then starts to relax. Maybe a period to watch as PSU noted yesterday.
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Wherever that CCB sets up is going to be intense...according to the euro.
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Juicy....
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Trailing energy keeps light snow going...great shoveling weather...
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CMC has no accums for monday outside of the WV ridge tops
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To your point on rates...ICON is juiced this run. Gotta be heavy precip falling to get this qpf in a quick hitter.
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Time to start extrapolating....
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12z 3k with probably a realistic evolution...most start as rain and the northern tier change over. C-3" depending on elevation.
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That is just nuts...I was alive to play in the snow for that one but have little memory of it. Those stats would rival anything in my weather memory.
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What astounds me is the qpf that will be wrung out...This isnt one of our 36+ hour long duration storms. First flake to last flake is probably 18-20 hours depending on the model and spitting out widespread 15-20". Going to be an absolute mauling if things hold.
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It used to break my heart when he would say “no sign of breaking out the golden snow shovel.” Lol No doubt...the original dr nope.
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Stronger high and better placement + earlier transfer.....a trend toward a classic look today.
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Certainly more confluence so far this run
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Control is very similar to the EPS...But man...what a look!
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Not a bad look here either at the end of the run. HP stronger than 12z and nosing in...
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Signal is strong....who know's about frozen vs liquid Last 5 runs
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GEFS trying hard at the trifecta as we near the holidays. Aleutian trough further SW should allow a better PNA ridge this run.... -NAO still cranking as well. A shut out is alway possibility but I feel like tracking will ramp up quickly.
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No shortage of blocking in this op run....just a matter of time until we get our digital snow.
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Extended GEFS and EPS both show the craptastic PAC we knew was right around the corner. But...that look has a notable difference from last year or just a few weeks ago, imo. Without the monster, stable NPAC ridge this could leave the door open for a PNA ridge to pop ever now and again. With the smoothed LR anoms, this could be just what the models are showing. Add in a cooperative ATL.....possible help from the strat and I am cautiously optimistic.
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Any west coast ridging being shoved east head over heels is like deja vu all over again from the past few winters. Little amplification and sw slides off the se coast...gives credence to what the op spit out. Gonna be like pulling teeth but it is what it is...
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I thought 18z was closer to something minor/mod. A long shot but its the closest thing we got right now. Nothing earth shattering here but some energy left behind and therefore a better separation of sw's. Plenty wrong with this frame but plenty of time also. A move in the right direction, imo.
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18z gfs op puts a real hurt'n on the spv... I get all the caveats but good to see op runs pick up on the mid month attack. The more robust the better....Lets throw a major wrench in this nina!
