poolz1

The Pac is what it is and a strong signal of change just isnt there right now. Griteater's most recent post regarding the polar move of the pac jet ext dampens the hope for a resulting +PNA in the near future. Hopefully we can get some transient episodes... The op gfs, though a disaster does develop a decent PNA ridge post D12 and has been for the last several runs. A little reassuring that this fits well with the hints from its own ens. So many systems in the pipeline seems to be the theme...just a transient ridge could be all we need.

Light snow, roof blizzard.....27 Perfect

HRRR shows a better quick flip to snow in the NW zones but really shows to potential and convective nature of the late afternoon snow showers just south of DC and east. ETA: Long range HRRR so .....

Is it possible that the NAO block bullies/expands west toward AK and improves the PAC? Seems the EPS and GEFS increase heights on the west coast and Ak toward the end of their runs due to an expanding NA block....not necessarily due to the Aleutian trough retreating SW.

To me, the most surprising aspect of that mean is the lower heights off the west coast and extending into AK. Would not have expected that to be the case. Just south enough to give a little PNA love....doesnt have to be some monster PNA ridge out west.

My thoughts exactly....We (myself included) always expect threats to line up exactly with good/great looks but that is rarely the case it seems. I still think the potential is high as we enter Jan....frustrating being patient but I still think this pattern needs to mature. Cant create a logjam in the ATL overnight.

Probably belongs in the digital h5 thread....guess we just need a +5 sig west based block to offset the pac.

Maybe we need a GL bomb to shake things up a little....

lol....right in front of my face. Much appreciated!

Anyone know how to create this on tidbits? Pulled this image from tweeter...

No diesel generator here but I do have a job site generator...4500W which would keep things refrigerated and a few amenities. We have been in this house for 16 yeas and have never lost power for more than 30 minutes...and that has only been a time or two. Rumor has it that the main feed for a military installation on S Mt runs along our backroad and our power is drawn from that. Idk if that is true but we certainly loose cable internet quite a bit after storms and friends around the area loose power often.

NS beating down heights out ahead of it...I thought that was going to be our 96 storm for a few frames. lol

Yea...I def took the low end of whats being advertised. Lots of 50+ on the models. Get your Christmas candles out...or your Christmas generator! Def seems like the gfs is trying to get back to some snow...Flakes would be great. A quick period of rates and stickage....with morning roof blizzards would be perfect...

18z gfs with 2-3" for the 81 corridor....already saturated ground and 40+mph gusts.

I'll certainly take anything to track...May have to let this pattern mature a little into Jan. Hopefully, the calls for increased +PNA start to pan out by then.

A nice west based block...finally some consistent lower heights in the 50/50 region and the gfs just shreds every sw coming east. Need just a mediocre PNA ridge to get something to amplify.

After the D7 potential models replace the vortex around Hudson bay with ridging...tugging/merging with the NAO block. Helping to create a more west based block. A good trend, imo. Better highs and high positions start to show up ..

CMC with a good look at the end of the run...

@nj2va Sounds like Deep Creek will be the place to be for Christmas.... Hopefully a few of those squalls will make their way over the mountains. Would be sweet to see snow squall warnings popping up x-mas day. .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Strong low pressure center and accompanying sfc cold front will cross the area on Christmas Eve and will be accompanied by heavy showers, potentially damaging winds, and as much as 2 inches of rain that could lead to flash flooding given saturated soils from melting snow and very wet second half of the year over central and southern MD. The showers could end as a very brief period of snow showers before ending with minimal accumulation outside of the Appalachians. However, strong CAA late Thu night will result in rapidly falling temperatures with a flash freeze possible. Very cold air aloft pouring in late Thu night and Fri will result in steepening lapse rates and potential squally weather over the mtns with intense snow showers possible. Wind chills will also be a concern for the mtns where sub-zero wind chills are possible and a very cold day and night Fri-Fri night elsewhere.

Interesting to visualize... -A0 Dec and storm tracks like this would have to bode well for Jan.

Just a snapshot of what models are being asked to handle...Blocking galore and energy flying around everywhere. Not that it hasnt been said but anything past D7-8 is a crapshoot..

A bit more west based....

GFS stronger with the x-mas wave once to the 50/50 region....and man, what a block..

Beating a dead horse here a little but having this heading into Jan is as good as we can ask... AO forecasted to plummet. Just having these two in our pocket is a beautiful thing..