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Posts posted by Randy4Confluence
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6 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:
Almost all their snow fell before New Years . They began the year cranking in November/December
looks like an all time least snowy period from New Years to now . At the 10K summit at mammoth ...13” Freaking inches and NONE this month . That is unheard of
They did 200” plus in February alone last year
Yes, February has been the absolute worst month with not a drop of nothin' all month. And on top of that, we've also had several dry wind events ( Santa Anna!) this month which is drying the plant life right down to their roots, so this potentially makes fire season start earlier.
What weather enthusiasts hope and pray for with all their hearts around here are "Atmospheric River" events...basically a sub-tropical weather system off the Pacific that brings feet of snow to places like the Sierra Mtns and Mammoth mountains.
Anyhow, hopefully things improve in March which isn't hard to do considering how bad it's been this month.
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Cali having a winter to forget also with bone dry Jan/Feb. Unless March is different, you'll be seeing lots of fires on TV again. Edit: SoCal isn't as BD off this year as NorCal so if things keep up this way, NorCal could have real problems with fire season.
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Or just forget about models and the storm and move to California where your hiny is on fire and you won't see even a cloud for 6 months let alone rain! Just think, no more hopes being dashed to pieces, 384 fantasy storms, and living model run to model run lol.
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Man we can't get rid of this damn resilliant ridging here ( CA). The LR showed some sign of it finally breaking around November 10th or so, but today took that all away.
I'm sure this is good news for you.
3rd year in a row of never ending fire season. I really get sick of the sun at this point. Man I miss normal 4 seasons.
Just bitching ..thanks for reading.
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Still stuck in the 50's? What's taking you so long! Not missing Mass. "Spring" at all.
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4th Quarter comeback.
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Anyone remember '06/'07 in SNE? I recall that being really horrible up until Valentines Day when we had a nice SWFE ( Snow and ice in Dedham). Then on St Pattys Day there was another nice storm.
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Any signs of -NAO in the weeklies. Seems that's the missing piece right now.
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On 1/21/2019 at 8:02 PM, weathafella said:
Siberian night. Snowing lightly all evening (watch the Logan guy throw in some make up number...lol), temps very bitter, glacial landscape....too cold for man or beast!
Sweet! Been a long time coming for you guys. I'm a little worried about the storm track, but a -NAO would theoretically take care of that. Either way that's a nice base you have cemented in YBY. I'm sure you only build on that.
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41 minutes ago, weathafella said:
Siberian night. Snowing lightly all evening (watch the Logan guy throw in some make up number...lol), temps very bitter, glacial landscape....too cold for man or beast!
Sweet! Been a long time coming for you guys. I'm a little worried about the storm track, but a -NAO would theoretically take care of that. Either way that's a nice base you have cemented in YBY. I'm sure you only build on that.
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4 minutes ago, weathafella said:
Ripping pretty good here...much better SNE growth
Are you up to 2" yet you think?
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Being on the West Coast now, I don't have to stay up 'till 1:00AM to catch the Euro
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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:
My point was not be invested in a CMC day 9 prog, but rather the plethora of longer range indicators that it is congruent with.
Hi. Wasn't sure, did your LR forecast include X-treme cold. Looks to me that's coming to a theatre near you as well. The GFS is really locking in some snot-freezing cold in the 10+ day! Good luck on your KU. Hard to imagine you not having anything OTG before we enter Feb.
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Seems that the GFS is locking in on the PNA rising and part of the PV making a move south @ around the 22nd or so.
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What a beauty!
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33 minutes ago, weathafella said:
I just remember leaving to move to LA in mid November 1976 after a series of decent but often frustrating winters. My first years there all hell breaks loose here. We all have life disappointments-stuff we didn’t do or stuff we shouldn’t have done. I will go to my grave with the sting of Great blizzard of 1978.
This makes me realize that I'm fortunate to take with me to California Feb 2015, winter '13-'14, winter '02-'03, and countless isolated events outside of these periods. Been there and done that. And so it helps me join in embracing the warmth. Although this year's "Winter" has been warmer than I'd like it ( We've been running estimating 10 above normal this year).
Otherwise, I would have fealt how you did in LA during those years probably.
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1 hour ago, weathafella said:
EPS shows that. We snow on Sunday and a warmer solution a couple of days later.
Are we talking like a fun sized storm (1-3") or something more moderate on the EPS?
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5 hours ago, weathafella said:
System around the 31st could be
What does the Euro show?
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One sign that CA finally cools down in early November is a -PNA forecasted by the various ensembles.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.shtml
It's not out of the ordinary that Ca experiences such a warm October, but as time moves forward from now into November, the kinds of temps that CA has been experiencing grows more unprecidented. For those of us who are pulling for rainy and cooler weather in CA, let's hope this pans out!
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Incredibly boring pattern here in N. CA with this Eastern Pacific ridge killing us. Anyone have idea when it finally begins to break? For awhile, the GFS was trying to break it in the long range ( 240+hours ) but over the last few days it keeps the beast in place with temporary breaks.
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One storm, that doesn't probably doesn't rank high around here, but for me is worth comemorating, is
The Dec 9th, 2005 mini blizzard. I was working in Needham that day, and we were only forecasted to get perhaps 1-3" that day. But a localized band set up somewhere around Boston...and BOOM! Basically we had thundersnow with lightning and high winds lasting like 3 hours or so. It was a 3 hour squall essentially. The total from that ended up being somewhere around 10".
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Could be advisory later this week, esp interior.
I'm telling you man, Nov. Snow is a good indicator for the winter... You should have listened to me.
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Yeah I don't think this will beat Feb 2013 for the widespread 24"+ totals. This feels a bit more like January 2011...maybe slightly better.
I guess that was considered a KU because of the widespread-ness anD this one isn't for the opposite reason.
February to Forget Volume 2 - 2020
in New England
Posted
Yes SoCal did very well in late November and December and got way ahead of their average early and have had other s/ws that we've missed out on so they are better off than us here in N. Cal this year.