Isn't this the old "convective feedback" issue, where the NAM would jump the low out by the thunderstorms and not along the baroclinic zone close to the coast? We're still several days out, so who knows? Maybe the NAM at range is right...for once.
The offence looked a bit rusty but I guess that's to be expected since Hurts hasn't played in nearly a month. They did enough to win but need to step it up next week regardless of the opponent.