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JTA66

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  1. JTA66
    I don't know if it's a good match analog wise, but this winter is starting to remind me of 2003-04. We had the cold that year, just no significant storms. Lots of nickle & dime events that kept the ground white for long stretches. I'm starting to think if we do get something (and others have already speculated on this), it's something that will pop up at a short lead time, say inside 84hrs. I dunno, just trying to be patient.
  2. JTA66
    Give me "Used to Love Her"
  3. JTA66
    I came into this winter expecting a ratter, so I'm happy with any snow we get. I remember January 2003 being very cold and dry -- maybe a clipper or two, but I remember driving to work each morning seeing the bare ground and thinking we're wasting all this cold. Then Feb hit. Yeah I know, 2002-03 was a Nino winter. But as others have said, I think we can nickel & dime our way to average this year. Patience!
  4. JTA66
    This! People forget the "H" in HECS stands for "historic". There's a reason those storms are labeled historic...because they don't happen very often!!
  5. JTA66
    Yes, the radar is really blossoming. Most models had any late day precipitation south. Could be a little surprise ending this event.
  6. JTA66
    EPS with a low in the lakes...seems about right.
  7. JTA66
    Maybe an inch here, can still see the tops of the grass blades. Went with 2", my forecast was only off by 50%
  8. JTA66
    You mean like in 6 hours??
  9. JTA66
    A couple of Agnes's "dramatic" flakes starting to mix in
  10. JTA66
    Just got back from a Jebwalk, some of the heaviest rates of the day so far. About .50", 25F/DP 22F.
  11. JTA66
    Light stuff coming down with a dusting on all surfaces, 24F/DP 19F.
  12. JTA66
    They’ll be up to 17 pages by tomorrow morning.
  13. JTA66
    I’m all in! Good ratios, instant stickage…2”
  14. JTA66
    People are rioting for bread, milk and eggs over that?? Weenie handbook rule #19: When the NAM cuts back on qpf, declare “convective feedback” and hug a model with higher totals. Sticking with my 1-3” call imby, but might be closer to the 1” now.
  15. JTA66
    Confluence is giving me a bad hair day
  16. JTA66
    My feeling all along is this is a 1-3”, maybe 2-4” deal imby. See no reason to change my thoughts on that. Still, 48ish hours to go, so still time for pleasant or unpleasant surprises. Looking like a “Kamu special”, we expect snow pile pics!
  17. JTA66
    And it looked like snow would continue beyond hour 84.
  18. JTA66
    Have a coating of powdered sugar on all unpaved surfaces.
  19. JTA66
    Light snow now, 33F/DP 27F
  20. JTA66
    Steadier flurries now.
  21. JTA66
    Filtered sun still visible behind the clouds, but some very light flurries are floating by.
  22. JTA66
    Cloudy here, 35F/DP 25F
  23. JTA66
    Windshield wiper effect...patience! M/D line on south has always looked like ground zero for this event. But I see no reason atm why we won't see accumulating snow on Monday. In the meantime, the HRRR still likes this afternoon.
  24. JTA66
    12 more hours and we’ll be rooting for stronger confluence
  25. JTA66
    Is it me or is today windier than yesterday—the day WITH the wind advisory? We’re still 4 days out, nudges & ticks are good. We don’t want wild swings. Patience!
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